NFL WEEK 14: We’ve reached the best part of the NFL’s regular season, when the premier teams still need to win, most teams still have a glimmer of hope, and meaningful games abound as the playoff picture takes shape. Fast-forward two weeks and the top teams will be considering resting their starters to keep them fresh, while most teams will have been eliminated from playoff contention and will have begun making offseason plans.
But right now, Week 14, is as good as it gets: twelve games currently feature points spreads of 6 or fewer, and there are so many good matchups on Sunday that it will be hard to put the remote down— Seahawks/Jaguars, Vikings/Panthers, Eagles/Rams, Chiefs/Raiders, Steelers/Ravens, and more. It will be a good day to cancel all plans, close all the curtains, hook up the nacho IV, and melt into some comfortable furniture… the type of Sunday we long for in the middle of July.
Of course, the festivities have already begun– Atlanta edged New Orleans 20-17 on Thursday night to throw the NFC South, possibly the NFL’s best division, into chaos. The Falcons and Saints meet again in Week 16 in a game that is now monumentally important, but don’t forget about the Panthers, who are lurking at 8-4 and could slide right in and steal the division. First thing’s first, though– Carolina will have to beat a Vikings team this week that has won eight straight games and is beginning to resemble a legitimate Super Bowl contender. It should be a nasty, hard-hitting defensive struggle.
I’m going to take a pass on that Carolina/Minnesota game (though I have a slight Carolina lean…), but opportunity abounds this week and we’ll be heavily involved in the Sunday action. Here’s what I’m thinking:
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (KC -3.5, 47.5)
Recommendation: Kansas City -3.5 at 1.92
Kansas City’s collapse has been a stunning development when you consider where everything stood a few weeks ago. If you recall, back in early October many NFL observers had the Chiefs pegged as the league’s best team— they were 5-0 with wins over New England and Philadelphia, they had scored 24 points or more in every game, and Alex Smith was being touted as an MVP frontrunner. Since then, they’ve lost 6 of 7 games, including their last four, and they now find themselves struggling to stay above water in what has suddenly become a very competitive division.
One of the teams currently tied with Kansas City atop the AFC West is Oakland, and the Raiders have turned some heads lately with 3 wins in their last 4 contests. Those wins have come against Miami, Denver, and the New York Giants, however— three of the worst teams in the league. The Raiders still have major problems on offense, as they’ve scored 17 points or fewer in half of their games this season and are only averaging 18.8 ppg over their last five, so even though they’ve been winning lately, the offense has still been in a funk. The defense, which currently ranks 22nd in total yards allowed and 23rd against the pass, has been a problem all season.
And despite the fact that the Chiefs just can’t buy a win, they’ve still been very competitive, with 5 of their last 6 losses coming by 7 points or fewer. They rank 6th in the NFL in total offense and just hung 31 on the Jets last week, so they should find plenty of success against the generous Oakland D, and their defense has been solid at home this season, holding the opposition to 20 points or fewer in the team’s last five games at Arrowhead. In my opinion this just feels like a prime “get well” opportunity for the Chiefs: a home game against a deeply flawed (and slightly overvalued) team that they know very well. Remember, back in Week 7 Derek Carr pulled off some late-game magic to help Oakland edge Kansas City in a 31-30 thriller. That game could be considered the turning point in Kansas City’s season, considering what transpired before and after. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs get their vengeance on Sunday.
CHICAGO BEARS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (Cin -6, 37.5)
Recommendation: Chicago +6 at 1.9
I don’t care what anybody says: the Cincinnati/Pittsburgh game that took place last Monday night was NFL football at its best. The squeamish can talk all they want to about the brutality, the dirty play, the brain injuries… the reality is that raw, unadulterated violence is an inextricable part of (American) football, and the savagery– players literally putting their lives on the line– is part of what makes it the greatest sport in the world, in this writer’s humble opinion. You risk it all, every time you step on the field. It’s not “game” in the same way that golf or tennis is a “game”– football at its highest level is serious business.
And the Bengals were defeated on Monday night in more ways than one. They lost 23-20 despite leading throughout, and it effectively ended their season, as they’re now 5-7 and would need a miracle to make the playoffs. But I think it’s deeper than that– I really felt after the game that Pittsburgh had crushed their soul, unmanned them in a way. That’s not just hyperbole, either– the Bengals were physically beaten up in the game and will be without some of their best players on both sides of the ball this week– Joe Mixon, Dre Kirkpatrick, Adam Jones, and Vontaze Burfict are all injured and out. And George Iloka, maybe the best player in a secondary that will already be without corners Kirkpatrick and Jones, was suspended for this week’s game after a late hit on Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown.
So Cincinnati comes in limping, with seemingly nothing left to play for and a locker room full of vets who have likely begun making their offseason plans. And it’s not like the Bengals didn’t already have big problems– they rank 31st in the NFL in total offense, and they don’t have single win over a team that currently has a winning record.
The Bears, for their part, have lost five straight, but they’re a young team that is still playing hard for coach John Fox– 4 of their last 5 losses have come by 8 points or fewer. They have a quality defense that ranks in the top-half of the league in every major statistical category, so Cincinnati should have trouble moving the ball (as usual), and the Chicago rushing attack has been dynamic at times this season: three weeks ago, for instance, they rushed for 222 yards and 2 TDs in a 3-point loss to Detroit. Vontaze Burfict is the undisputed leader of the Cincinnati defense, and with him out (and Geno Atkins questionable with a foot injury), the Bears would appear to have an opportunity in the running game. But this is more of an anti-Bengals than a pro-Bears play– I just don’t feel like this Cincinnati team should be a 6-point favorite over anybody right now, so I’m fairly enthusiastic about Chicago here.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (Dal -3.5, 41.5)
Recommendation: New York +3.5 at 1.95; New York ML at 2.74
The last two weeks have been about as tumultuous as it gets for the Giants: they benched starting quarterback and franchise legend Eli Manning, lost to Oakland on Sunday, and then fired head coach Ben McAdoo. Interim coach Steve Spagnuolo has now reinstated Manning as the team’s starter and owner John Mara has emphatically proclaimed that there won’t be any “tanking”, but you still have to wonder about the psyche of a team that is dealing with so much upheaval.
But playing against a division rival has a way of brining things into focus, and there’s certainly no love lost between the Giants and Cowboys. Dallas prevailed easily when these teams met back in Week 1, but that was a different Cowboys team, one that still had Ezekiel Elliott slicing through defenses and Sean Lee holding things together on the other side of the ball. Lee will make his long-awaited return this week, but he’s sure to be rusty and the Dallas front seven isn’t the main concern here anyway– the Giants haven’t been able to run the ball all season, so this will come down to Eli Manning vs. the Dallas secondary.
Manning surely wants to make a big splash in his return to the lineup, and with Sterling Shepard now back in the fold and Evan Engram still torching defenses, he at least has a couple of reliable weapons at his disposal. And the Cowboys secondary is very exploitable, as they’ve surrendered nearly 1,100 combined passing yards in their last four games and only two teams have allowed more touchdown passes this season. This is a great opportunity for Manning.
Meanwhile, with all the fuss over quarterbacks and coaching, the recent play of the New York defense has slid under the radar a bit. It’s certainly understandable, as the Giants have only won 1 of their past 6 games and are just a month removed from surrendering 51 points to the LA Rams. But the defense has shored things up lately, allowing just 17.6 ppg in the team’s past three contests, and the Dallas offense has been abysmal since losing Elliott, producing fewer than 10 points in three consecutive games before finally getting things rolling against the struggling Washington defense last week. If you look at the way these teams have played over the past month, I’m just not sure there’s a whole lot of difference between them. And with Eli coming back for what could be one of his final home games in a Giants uniform, the stage is set for a minor upset here. Gimme the points, and I’ll have a little taste on the moneyline as well.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Jax -2.5, 38.5)
Recommendation: Seattle +2.5 at 1.96; Seattle ML at 2.22
Both of these teams are 8-4 and would make the playoffs if the season ended today. That makes this the biggest game that Jacksonville has hosted in years, as the Jags haven’t given the home fans much to cheer about over the past decade but have turned it around this season thanks to a dominant defense and a workhorse rookie running back. But that running back, Leonard Fournette, has begun to slow down a bit over these past few weeks as defenses load the box to stop him. That has put more of the playmaking burden on quarterback Blake Bortles, and while occasionally Bortles responds with a quality performance, as he did last week against Indianapolis, the more common scenario involves Bortles making ill-advised plays that lead to turnovers and severely hamper his team’s chances to win.
Let’s face it: the Jags have been winning in spite of Bortles this year, not because of him. No one who has followed the team closely this season would disagree with that assessment. The Seahawks may not be what they once were on the defensive side of the ball, but they just smothered Philadelphia’s NFL-leading offense last week, holding them to a season-low 10 points. They’ll have a plan for this one-dimensional Jacksonville offense, and you can rest assured that the plan will involve stopping the run and forcing Bortles to air it out. But sometimes that’s not enough: four weeks ago (vs. LAC) Bortles became the first QB in NFL history to win a game despite throwing two interceptions in the final 2 minutes, with his team trailing both times. It’s a remarkable feat when you think about it, and it perfectly sums up the 2017 Jaguars.
The Seattle offense will have to grind it out against the fierce Jacksonville D, but the emergence of Mike Davis seems to have finally given the running game some life, and Russell Wilson is playing the best football of his career, ranking 6th in the league in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns. There won’t be a whole lot of points scored in this game, but I’m happy to back the veteran, battle-tested team with the superior quarterback. Seattle is a good value on the moneyline here.
