NFL WEEK 14: Week 14 began with a whimper, as the Tennessee Titans laid waste to a disinterested Jacksonville Jaguars team in a Thursday night game that didn’t really excite anybody except for Derrick Henry’s fantasy owners.
But fear not, friends, for better times await– this week’s slate features several compelling matchups, including Baltimore’s visit to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that is 10-2 but has burned its backers lately; Dallas vs. Philadelphia in a game that will go a long way towards deciding the NFC East; and Sunday night’s clash of Super Bowl hopefuls in Chicago, where the NFC North-leading Bears will face the 11-1 L.A. Rams in a possible playoff preview.
And then there’s the all-important task of getting rich: there aren’t too many more of these Sundays left this season– these green, grassy 14-game fields of opportunity– so it’s important we take advantage. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (Hou -4.5, 50)
Recommendation: Indianapolis +4.5 at 1.92
Winners of nine straight games, the Texans are the hottest team in the NFL at the moment, and on Sunday they can all but clinch the AFC South title with a win over division rival Indianapolis. But it won’t be easy— the Colts had won five straight before a frustrating 6-0 loss to Jacksonville last week, and earlier this season they took Houston to the brink, losing 37-34 in overtime. Andrew Luck threw for a season-best 464 yards and 4 touchdowns in that game, and he’s had great success against the Texans throughout his career, so in a must-win situation like this, I expect him to be razor sharp. Yes, the Houston pass rush is fierce, but the Colts o-line has done a tremendous job protecting Luck this season, surrendering just 14 sacks through 12 games, the second-lowest number in the NFL. And as we’ve already seen, if Luck stays upright, he can do some serious damage against a middling Houston secondary that was torched by Browns rookie Baker Mayfield last week to the tune of 397 passing yards.
On the other side of the ball, the Indy defense has improved as much as any unit in the league over the course of the season, as they now rank in the top-half of the NFL in nearly every major statistical category. The Colts are surrendering just 16.5 points per game over their last six contests, and they’ve been especially stingy against the run, limiting 3 of their past 4 opponents to 91 rushing yards or fewer. The Texans have scored 23 points or fewer 8 times this season, so their offense has been slowed at times, and this has traditionally been a tough matchup for them, as Indianapolis is 4-1 at NRG stadium stretching back to 2013. All things considered, 5 points feels like too many in this situation.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NO -9, 54.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans -9 at 1.91
The Saints laid an egg in Dallas last week, producing a season-low 176 total yards of offense in a 13-10 loss. But they should be able to right the ship rather quickly, as they now have a prime “get well” opportunity against a Tampa defense that has been among the NFL’s worst this season, ranking 27th in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed. While it’s true that the Bucs have played their best two defensive games in the past two weeks, smothering the punchless 49ers offense in a 27-9 Week 12 victory and then limiting Carolina to 17 points in an upset win last week, we’re still talking about a defense that is allowing 29.6 points per game and is just three weeks removed from surrendering 38 to the basement-dwelling New York Giants. Plus, injuries are an issue, particularly in the secondary– safeties Justin Evans and Isaiah Johnson are both out this week, and cornerbacks Carlton Davis, Brent Grimes, and M.J. Stewart are all listed as questionable.
The New Orleans offense has been machine-like this season– Drew Brees leads the NFL in QB rating (123.2) while completing over 75% of his passes and posting a ridiculous 30-3 TD-to-INT mark, and the rushing attack is just as deadly, as Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram continue to provide the league’s preeminent 1-2 punch at tailback. I think it’s certainly reasonable to expect the Saints to approach or surpass their 34.9 ppg average this week, meaning Jameis Winston and the Tampa offense will need to kick it into high gear if they hope to keep pace. But it won’t be easy against a Saints defense that has held four straight opponents to 17 points or fewer, and Winston has been very average this season, so it’s difficult to have much faith in him out-dueling Brees if this one turns into a shootout. And remember, he wasn’t the man under center when the Bucs pulled off the upset in New Orleans way back in Week 1– it was Ryan Fitzpatrick who lit up the Saints defense for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns that day. I have a hunch the Saints will get a little revenge on Sunday, and considering 7 of their 10 wins this season have come by double-digits, I’m not too concerned about the 9-point number here.
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns (Car -1, 47.5)
Recommendation: Cleveland moneyline at 2.02
Things have quickly unraveled in Carolina, as the Panthers have lost four straight to fall to 6-6 on the season and now find themselves in a difficult position in the NFC Wild Card race. The offense has grown stale and may have played its worst game of the season last week, managing just 17 points against an awful Tampa defense, but it’s the defense that has been the biggest cause for concern in Carolina, as a once-proud unit has collapsed in recent weeks, surrendering a staggering 31.5 ppg during the team’s ongoing losing streak. Head coach Ron Rivera pushed the panic button this week, firing two defensive assistants and assuming play-calling duties himself. The moves come amid speculation that new owner David Tepper is looking to shake things up after the season, possibly from the top down.
Now the Panthers go on the road to face a Browns team that has played fairly well of late, winning back-to-back games before losing in Houston last week. Offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, who was promoted to the position after former head coach Hue Jackson was fired a month ago, has been pushing the right buttons with young QB Baker Mayfield, as the rookie has averaged 292 pass yards per game since Kitchens assumed play-calling duties, and has completed at least 67% of his passes in each game. Mayfield has been helped immensely by the emergence of fellow rookie Nick Chubb, who has staked his claim as one of the NFL’s best young running backs, and now the Cleveland offense feels legitimately dangerous for the first time in a long time. This just seems like a case of two teams moving in opposite directions, and frankly I’m not sure the Panthers should be favored over anybody right now after what we’ve seen out of them lately. The reputations of the teams involved are affecting the line, but as bettors it’s important to live in the “now”, and I think Cleveland is the better team at the moment.
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (NY -3, 41)
Recommendation: New York -3 at 1.84
Don’t look now, but the Giants are actually starting to play some football— they’ve won 3 of their past 4 games, and last Sunday’s 30-27 victory over the NFC North-leading Bears was a “sit up and take notice” type of performance, as Chicago was riding a 5-game win streak and had allowed just 15.4 ppg in that span. There’s no denying that the New York offense has developed into a dangerous unit over the past few weeks, as Saquon Barkley has lived up to his status as a top-5 pick and Odell Beckham has been unstoppable, piling up the best numbers of his career. And the defense, though still not the strength of the team, has been better than people realize, especially in the secondary, where they’ve held opposing QBs to a 89.8 passer rating, ranking 3rd in the NFC in that category.
This week that defense will have a chance to shine, as the Redskins have lost their top two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries and are now down to Mark Sanchez, who was signed off the street just 3 weeks ago. Sanchez was thrust into action on Monday night against Philadelphia and it went pretty much as you’d expect, as he threw for just 100 yards on 21 attempts and was intercepted once in a 28-13 loss. So for the Redskins to win this one, they’re going to have to rely on their defense, which has had its moments this season but has begun to fade over the past few weeks, giving up 120 combined points in the team’s last 4 losses. And if we’re being honest, the secondary has been bad all season— only two teams in the NFC have allowed more passing yards, so Eli Manning will have ample opportunity to make things happen down the field in this game. I know the Giants are generally unreliable and they lost to these Redskins at home six weeks ago, but both teams are different now— New York is playing better, while Washington is materially different on account of the quarterback situation. Expect the Giants to win this one rather comfortably.
