NFL WEEK 14: These last couple of weeks have been a beautiful stretch of the schedule, with meaningful, interesting games aplenty and some memorable outcomes– New England’s 14-10 win over Buffalo in the Monday Night ice is a game that will go down in NFL regular season lore and will forever be cited as proof of Belichick’s genius (“remember the time he beat the Bills while attempting just three passes?!”), and last week’s Pittsburgh/Baltimore slugfest was an instant classic as well, one that will long be remembered in that bitter rivalry.
The fun continues this week with another slate that’s chock full of interesting matchups, like Bills vs. Bucs in Tampa, San Francisco’s visit to Cincinnati for a game that has tremendous playoff implications for both teams, critical divisional battles in the AFC North, AFC West, and NFC East that will factor heavily in the playoff race, and the Monday night showdown in the desert between two of the NFC’s best and most exciting teams, Arizona and Los Angeles. These are the weeks you pine for in the depths of the offseason, with great football everywhere you turn.
We’ve had some profitable weeks lately and have been on the verge of stringing together something really special, but some tough losses have left us treading water. Last week was a perfect example– off to a quick start in the early window with wins on Tampa and Pittsburgh, but gave it back when Kansas City narrowly covered the 9.5 on Sunday night and Dawson Knox couldn’t hang on to the would-be game-winning TD pass late in the Monday night thriller. But them’s the breaks, as they say, and I feel good about what we’ve got cooking this week:
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team (DAL -4.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: Dallas -4.5 at 1.93
Ron Rivera is on the verge of turning around a lost season in Washington, as the Football Team has rolled its way to four straight victories to even up the record at 6-6 and move squarely into playoff contention. But only one of the four wins has come against a team with a winning record– the stunner over Tampa Bay that kicked off the streak– and the last three have come by just 10 combined points. The WFT offense has averaged fewer yards per play than the opponent in all four of these recent wins. In other words, this run that Washington is on may be a bit of a mirage, and I think reality will begin to set in this week, when the division-leading Cowboys come to town off 10 days rest. It’s true that Dak Prescott hasn’t quite looked the same since returning from injury, but he’s had some extra time to heal and is trending in the right direction, and he’ll be facing a Washington defense that has been porous in the secondary, ranking 30th in the league in pass yards allowed. Prescott has had tremendous success against Washington throughout his career, posting a 7-1 record and throwing 13 TDs to just 1 INT, so this is a great opportunity for him to get back on track. I like his chances and I expect Dallas to cruise to a double-digit victory.
New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets (NO -5, 43)
Recommendation: New Orleans -5 at 1.91
Taysom Hill was the butt of the joke on social media after throwing 4 interceptions in a loss to Dallas last Thursday night, with professional “analysts” questioning why Sean Payton has him on the roster at all and openly mocking the large contract extension the Saints gave him just a couple of weeks ago. While Hill certainly isn’t your conventional NFL quarterback, he’s far better than his haters would have you believe, and he made some pretty good throws downfield last week despite having the middle finger on his throwing hand in a splint– an injury that will continue to be an issue this week. He also ran for over 100 yards, and with Alvin Kamara set to make his return for New Orleans this week after a month on the sidelines, the Saints now figure to have one of the NFL’s most potent rushing attacks. When Kamara is option 1A and Hill is option 1B, with the potential to fire a laser downfield, I mean… who is stopping that? Certainly not the dreadful Jets defense, a unit that ranks last in the NFL in both yards allowed (396.8 ypg) and points allowed (30.6 ppg). And on the other side of the ball, Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson will be forced to air it out against a Saints D that is extremely stingy against the run, allowing a league-best 3.6 ypc. This game is a straightforward mismatch, with the instability of the New Orleans offense the only thing keeping the spread within a touchdown. I trust Taysom Hill more than the market does, apparently.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals (SF -1.5, 49)
Recommendation: Cincinnati moneyline at 2.14
San Francisco finally appeared to be picking up steam and fulfilling preseason expectations before a surprising loss to Seattle last week ended a 3-game winning streak, putting the Niners at 6-6 and in desperate need of a victory. It won’t be easy on a road trip to Cincinnati, where a Bengals team awaits that is desperate for a win in its own right and had been playing very well before a loss to the Chargers last week– a game in which Cincinnati fell behind 24-0 and almost came all the way back, cutting the lead to 2 points at one time. The Bengals have one of the league’s most balanced offenses, with Joe Burrow spreading it around to his elite trio of wideouts and Joe Mixon having a career year out of the backfield, ranking second in the NFL in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. But the main reason I feel that Cincinnati has an edge in this matchup is on the other side of the ball, as San Francisco is one of the league’s most run-heavy teams, leading the NFL in percentage of designed run plays (h/t ESPN stats & info), and the Bengals defense is excellent against the run, ranking 4th in rush yards allowed and 6th in run D success rate. If you can neutralize the 49ers rushing attack you can turn them into a very ordinary offense, and that is exactly what I expect to occur in this game. The Cincinnati offense, meanwhile, is a tougher puzzle to solve. Gimme the Bengals at home.
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -3.5, 54)
Recommendation: Buffalo +3.5 at 1.89
Observe the NFL for long enough and you’ll see certain games, certain situations, where you just know what’s going to happen, and yet you totally understand why one would think that something else is going to happen, because it’s obvious. Sometimes you get caught with your pants down on intuitions like these, but more often than not you’re proven right (at least.. that’s what we tell ourselves. Gambler’s amnesia). At any rate, I have just this sort of feeling about the Bills this week– yes, they have been struggling somewhat, having lost 2 of 3 entering this game and being just six days removed from a gut-wrenching home loss to New England. They’re still squarely in line for a playoff berth, however, and the defense has continued to be dominant, leading the NFL in total yards allowed and pass yards allowed and ranking 2nd in points allowed. Tampa has a potent passing attack, but Tom Brady will have to be patient against the league’s top secondary and I expect the Bucs offense to look much like it did against Washington last month, when Brady was forced to check down frequently and the Bucs were held to 19 points and 273 total yards. Brady’s counterpart in this game, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, has been a one-man wrecking crew who has accounted for over 300 total yards in 5 of his past 6 games. If he can avoid turnovers he should be able to take advantage of a vulnerable Tampa secondary that has been torched several times this season. This should be a great QB battle and a fun game to watch, and Brady may pull it out in the end, as he has done so many times before. But Buffalo is a tough team that will die hard, Josh Allen is a supreme competitor and explosive two-way threat, and the defense is legit. I’ll take the points, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Bills were to steal the outright win.
