NFL WEEK 15: After a string of thrilling Thursday nighters this Week 15 kicked off with a bit of a dud, as the Rams edged the Niners in a 12-6 game that featured exactly zero touchdowns. It was two defenses who knew exactly what the opposing offense was going to do, and offenses that weren’t talented enough or creative enough to break the mold, do something different, and actually score some points. The result all but eliminates San Francisco from playoff contention, while the Rams are now 8-6 and right in the thick of the race.
Speaking of the playoff race, with only a couple of exceptions we pretty much know what the field is going to be now, and these next few weeks will mostly be about byes and homefield advantage. Those “exceptions” include the NFC West, the AFC South, and the NFC’s final Wild Card spot, and we’ll get some more clarity on Sunday with games like Dolphins/Texans, Colts/Broncos, Bucs/Chargers, and Packers/Seahawks. But the crown jewel game of the weekend is a potential Super Bowl preview in Detroit, where Josh Allen and the Bills will come to town to take on the NFC-leading Lions. Here are my thoughts on that one and a couple others:
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (BAL -16.5, 42.5)
Recommendation: Baltimore -16.5 at 1.91
I know, I know — laying double-digit numbers in the NFL is gross. This is the first time I will have done so this season, and I’m not sure I backed any double-digit favorites last year, either. That said, this is a mismatch of epic proportions, especially with Tommy DeVito starting for the newly injured Drew Lock. With DeVito under center the Giants are absolutely hopeless on offense, a dismal 3-and-out machine that can’t challenge defenses downfield due to the quarterback’s water pistol arm. The G-Men will play right into the hands of the Ravens D, running it directly at their stout front seven and trying to loosen things up with the short passing game. And it doesn’t get any better on the other side of the ball for New York — the Ravens are averaging a whopping 5.72 yards per rush this season, which is the second-highest number in league history behind the 1963 Cleveland Browns (who were led by some guy named Jim Brown), while the Giants defense has been hopeless against the run, allowing 4.9 yards per attempt and 14 rushing touchdowns. This game has a 34-7 feel, and I don’t think the 16.5-point line will feel that big by the middle of the 2nd quarter. The Ravens will run it up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers (LA -3, 44.5)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay +3 at 1.9; Tampa Bay moneyline (to win) at 2.39
This is a really interesting matchup with major playoff implications for both teams. The Chargers are coming off a tough 19-17 loss to Kansas City and their defense has been excellent this season, leading the league in points allowed, but the offense lacks playmakers and the scheme is rather vanilla. Justin Herbert has been forced to play Superman many games, but he injured his left ankle last week so his mobility will be compromised this week, as well as his ability to shift weight onto his front (left) foot naturally. The Tampa defense has been playing its best football of the season in the team’s current 3-game win streak, limiting the opposition to fewer than 15 points per game in that span. I expect them to keep a lid on the pedestrian L.A. attack, and though the Chargers defense has proven difficult to penetrate, the Bucs are in a great rhythm right now offensively, rushing for 150 yards or more in their last three games, and Baker Mayfield is in the midst of a career year, completing over 70% of his passes and tossing 28 touchdowns, already matching the career high that he posted last year with 4 games still to play. This Tampa team is ascending and gaining confidence, while the Chargers are banged-up, limited offensively, and ripe for the upset.
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (DET -2.5, 53.5)
Recommendation: Buffalo +2.5 at 1.96; Buffalo moneyline (to win) at 2.27
We only get a couple of games like this every year — the best of the best, elite vs. elite, a realistic potential Super Bowl preview. The Lions have rattled off 11 consecutive wins to get the inside track for the NFC’s 1-seed and the accompanying first round bye, while the Bills had a 7-game win streak themselves before losing a thriller in L.A. last week. While neither of these teams have any glaring weaknesses, they have both had defensive issues at times, and the Detroit defense in particular is really banged up right now, with 4 of their top 6 linebackers sidelined and three linemen questionable. Josh Allen can make a defense pay with both his arm and his legs, and he should be able to manipulate and exploit the Lions reserve linebacking corps. The Bills have scored 30 points or more in 7 straight games, one shy of the NFL record, and there’s no reason to expect them to slow down this week — it’s not like they’re playing against a great defense. The Lions offense, on the other hand, is pretty great, and this one should be a shootout that’s a lot of fun to watch. Though Detroit has the edge when it comes to offensive skill players, the Bills have the best QB in the league on their side, a guy who is absolutely at the peak of his powers right now. I’ll take the 2.5 points but I’m also going to play this one on the moneyline, because I expect Buffalo to win outright.
