NFL WEEK 15: You can almost feel playoff time in the air, as we now have just three regular season weeks remaining. Three teams– New Orleans, Kansas City, and Baltimore– have clinched their respective divisions, but it’s turning into a dogfight in divisions like the AFC South, NFC West, and NFC North, with the disaster in the NFC East better categorized as a pillow fight, albeit a very competitive one.
If we’re being honest, this Week 15 slate isn’t the greatest in terms of compelling matchups, but there are exceptions of course, and I think what would be truly “compelling” is a 4-0 sweep and a little extra cash on hand for the holidays. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (TEN -3, 51)
Recommendation: Tennessee -3 at 1.99
While an argument could be made that Houston is an interesting situational play here as a “buy low” candidate after last week’s 14-point loss to Denver, with Tennessee being an obvious “sell high” team after four straight wins and covers, I suspect that may be overcomplicating things: based on what we’ve seen over the last 7 games– so, since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback– the Titans have the look of an elite team, possibly the second-best team in the AFC behind Baltimore. They’ve been a cash cow in this recent stretch, only failing to cover once in Tannehill’s seven starts, and we’ve been part-time riders on the gravy train, as regular readers know. I don’t think that train is finished rolling.
The primary issue the Texans will have here is the same issue that every team has had against Tennessee lately: slowing down an offense that has scored 30 points or more in four consecutive games through a lethal combination of Derrick Henry’s power running and a quarterback who can actually see the field and get the ball out on time (R.I.P. Marcus Mariota’s career). And it’s not like the Houston defense has been particularly effective at stopping.. well, anybody. They’ve allowed a stunning 49% conversion rate on opponent’s third downs, last in the league by a wide margin. Last week they were shredded by Denver and rookie quarterback Drew Lock, who threw for 309 yards and 3 TDs on just 27 pass attempts, and they’ve now surrendered 30 points or more five times this season. I expect Henry to have a big day against an injury-decimated Houston front seven that is allowing 4.5 yards per rush, and there’s no reason to think Tannehill will flinch– not in a Week 15 home game, anyway. The Titans are the better team and I expect that to be made clear on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers (MIN -1, 45.5)
Recommendation: Los Angeles moneyline at 2.07
Minnesota badly needs this game– Green Bay sits atop the NFC North at 10-3, but the Vikings are just a game back at 9-4, and with the way the NFC Wild Card race is shaping up– three teams in the West alone are 8-5 or better– a loss this week could make things awfully dicey for the Vikes. But the “which team needs it most” way of thinking just might be the worst possible method of handicapping NFL games, and there’s absolutely no evidence to suggest that Philip Rivers and the Chargers will be anything less than fully motivated and ready to play on Sunday, particularly after they traveled across the country last week and dropped the hammer on Jacksonville 45-10.
Remember: the Chargers are one of the most talented teams in the NFL. After going 12-4 in 2018 and bringing back a roster loaded with Pro Bowl players, they were expected to be among the favorites in the AFC. But things happened– injuries, holdouts and internal issues, uncharacteristically poor play from Rivers– and the Chargers dropped a bunch of close games. And I do mean a *bunch* of close games– all 8 of L.A.’s losses this season have come by 7 points or fewer, which is pretty amazing when you think about it. And they’ve been playing better over the last few weeks– the rushing defense has improved tremendously since the beginning of the season, the secondary has continued to play at a high level, and Rivers has answered the “time to retire” calls with a couple of excellent performances. The Vikings have a solid defense but they’re by no means dominant, and have been exposed by some of the league’s better offenses this season, most recently when Seattle hung 37 on them in Week 13. Kirk Cousins has been markedly better at home than on the road, and things won’t come easy against the L.A. defense. I don’t like this spot for Minnesota– the Chargers feel like the right side here.
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -1, 36.5)
Recommendation: Buffalo moneyline at 2.0
As you would expect when you see a total like 36.5, there’s not likely to be a whole lot of offensive fireworks in this one. These teams both rank in the bottom-half in the NFL in yards per game, points scored, yards per play… you get the idea. And they both have excellent defenses, with Buffalo ranking 3rd in the league in yards allowed and 2nd in points allowed, and Pittsburgh right behind them in both categories– 5th in yards allowed, 6th in points allowed. This is going to be an old-fashioned blood-and-guts battle on a cold, icy evening at Heinz Field. And with both teams fighting for one of the final spots at the postseason table, the stakes couldn’t be higher. It should make for riveting television (aside from, you know, the scoring part).
Though the Steelers could be getting tailback James Conner back this week, this is still an offense that has been rendered toothless by injuries: undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges continues to hold down the fort at quarterback, but he’ll be without the services of Juju Smith-Schuster once again after the star wideout re-aggrivated a knee injury in practice this week. I feel like Pittsburgh’s recent winning streak has masked just how bad the offense continues to be: 29th in the league in yards per game and 23 points or fewer in each of their last five games, despite facing some of the worst defenses in the NFL (Cincinnati and Arizona among them) in that stretch. Simply moving the ball and picking up first downs against the elite Buffalo defense is going to be a tremendous struggle. The Bills will have struggles of their own on offense, but they have more explosive potential on that side of the ball with players like Devin Singletary and John Brown, and in Josh Allen they have a quarterback who can generate big plays with both his arm and his legs. I believe this will be the beginning of the end for Pittsburgh’s season– the Bills are just a little bit better on both sides of the ball, and will likely escape Heinz Field with a huge win.
Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints (NO -9, 46.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans -9 at 1.91
The Colts have been Grade A fade bait over the last seven weeks, as the respect they earned with some good early-season performances eventually morphed into them becoming an overvalued and overrated team, particularly after some key injuries on offense sapped much of their explosiveness on that side of the ball. T.Y. Hilton is likely to be out again this week, meaning the Colts are sure to continue with their run-heavy approach against a Saints defense that has been stout up front this season, surrendering just 94.2 rushing yards per game, the 5th-best mark in the NFL. This is a great matchup for the New Orleans D– just what the doctor ordered after they came unraveled against San Francisco last week, allowing 48 points in a wild loss.
But one good thing did come out of last week for New Orleans– Drew Brees and the offense really found a rhythm against one of the league’s best defenses, and you get the feeling that things might be coming together at just the right time (which is what everybody around the league would be saying about New Orleans had George Kittle not broken loose for the decisive play late in last week’s game). The Colts defense has surrendered 69 combined points in the team’s last two games, both losses, and the secondary in particular has been exposed, so we can expect vintage Brees in this one: diagnosing the defense, finding the open man, and getting the ball out quickly and on-target. It’s positively machine-like when it gets rolling, and on Monday night in the Superdome, a week after a gutting defeat and facing a team that has lost 5 of 6, it should be fully rolling. The Saints are simply going to be too much for the Colts– this one won’t be close.
