NFL WEEK 15: The playoffs are so close now you can smell ’em, and this Week 15 slate is chock full of meaningful games. The headliner is in New Orleans, where the 10-3 Saints will host the 12-1 Chiefs as both teams try to move one step closer to locking up the 1-seed in their respective conferences. Remember– unlike years past, only the 1-seed gets a first-round postseason bye this year, as the extra Wild Card team means the 2-seed will now be in action on Wild Card Weekend.
Of course, the race for the final seat(s) at the table is usually where most of the intrigue is found, and this season is no exception, particularly in the AFC, where 8 teams are currently 8-5 or better but only 7 will get in. I was reading about possible scenarios this week, and if things get crazy enough we could actually have an 11-5 team locked out of the postseason. It’s unlikely, for sure, but it just speaks to the fact that every game going forward is essentially a playoff game for teams like the Browns, Ravens, Colts, Titans, and Dolphins.
We’re coming off another profitable week, with only Miami’s sickening backdoor cover preventing us from the clean sweep. So I continue to burn money at the altar of Tua Tagovailoa, and, yep, back it again this Sunday, fading the Dolphins in their divisional game against New England. So… follow at your own risk, as always. Satisfaction definitely not guaranteed (and yet often attained!).
On to the picks…
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -7.5, 51.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis -7.5 at 1.95
Deshaun Watson is one of the finest quarterbacks in the league, but he’s been dealt a bad hand this season– first the trading away of his top weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, then the midseason firing of head coach Bill O’Brien, who was heavily involved in the offense, then the loss of this year’s leading receiver, Will Fuller, to a PED suspension, and more recently injuries to his best remaining options, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. Watson has kept the team more competitive than they should be– especially when you consider that the defense ranks 31st in yards allowed, ahead of only Jacksonville– but the dam is starting to break, as evidenced by the 36-7 walloping that Chicago put on Houston last week. The Texans haven’t been able to run the ball all season, Watson’s receiving corps is essentially a collection of backups, the defense is awful, and now they go to Indianapolis to face a superior Colts team that badly needs this game. The Colts are excellent defensively, ranking 6th in the NFL in yards allowed, and the offense ain’t to shabby, either, putting up 26 points or more in each of the team’s past 5 games. These teams met just two weeks ago, with Indianapolis pulling out a 26-20 win. It won’t be that close this time around.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -1.5, 41.5)
Recommendation: New England moneyline at 2.14
Tua is like a black hole that sucks up my money, with a magnetic force so strong that it just keeps on devouring the stuff, week after week. I can not resist. The eye test tells you that the Tua-led Dolphins offense is worse than the Fitz-led Dolphins offense, and most of the stats say so too. The most important stat, however– the W– is where Tua has shined, and as far as Dolphins bettors were concerned he came through in Miami’s Week 14 loss to Kansas City, leading the offense on a 5-play, 49-yard drive in the game’s final 52 seconds that culminated in a field goal which cut the Chiefs lead to 33-27, achieving a backdoor cover that was disgusting or glorious, depending on your perspective. Anyway, I fully expect the veteran New England defense to have Tua and the Fins on lockdown this week, and I’ll be surprised if they aren’t able to force the rookie into a couple of turnovers. On the other side of the ball, the Pats have been bad, no doubt, but the Miami defense has struggled against the run this season, surrendering 4.6 yards per carry and several 200+ yard rushing games. One of those came against these Patriots way back in Week 1, with Cam Newton gaining 75 of New England’s 216 rushing yards in a 21-11 Pats win. Given the current shakiness of the Miami offense (17.3 ppg in the 3 games prior to last week), I expect a similar outcome this time around– a low-scoring Patriots victory.
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (SF -3, 45.5)
Recommendation: Dallas +3 at 1.91
It’s been ugly for the Cowboys this season, but, slowly and quietly, it may be getting better. You saw glimpses of it in the team’s Week 13 loss to Baltimore, and then last week they finally put it all together in rolling over an overmatched Bengals team. The Dallas defense controlled the game so Andy Dalton didn’t have to do much in his return to Cincinnati, but he was efficient, going 16/23 for 185 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and you can tell that he’s much more comfortable operating the offense these last few weeks than he was when he first took over for Dak Prescott. The San Francisco defense has worn down as the season has progressed, with injuries taking their toll, and has allowed 20+ points in each of the team’s last six games. The Niners have fallen out of playoff contention, and with the inconsistent Nick Mullens at quarterback and the offense’s top weapon, Deebo Samuel, out this week with a hamstring injury, I don’t like their chances against an improving Dallas team that is still within shouting distance of Washington in the lowly NFC East.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (PIT -13, 40.5)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh -13 at 1.96
Picking a game like this– a mismatch with a double-digit spread– always feels like low-hanging fruit, but the Bengals have really turned into a sad sack since Joe Burrow’s injury and this game has all the makings of a one-sided beatdown, so I believe this particular low-hanging fruit is worth plucking. As most readers are aware, the Steelers were undefeated until a second-half collapse resulted in a Week 13 loss to Washington, and they followed that up with a 26-15 defeat at the hands of a good Buffalo team. They still hold a 2-game lead in the NFC North, however, and they’re only a game back of the Chiefs in the race for the 1-seed and first-round postseason bye, so there’s lots to play for as they turn their attention to a division rival on the Monday night stage. The dominant Pittsburgh defense, still leading the NFL in points allowed (18.2 ppg), should overwhelm a Bengals offense that doesn’t have a reliable option at quarterback and, as a result, has not topped 17 points in six weeks. I just don’t see a Cincinnati angle here, beyond the obvious fact that 13 is a whole lot of points in a divisional game. But given what’s at stake for the Steelers, and the state of the Bengals on both sides of the ball, I can hardly imagine any outcome other than an emphatic Pittsburgh victory. The number will probably be covered by halftime.
