NFL WEEK 17: It’s holiday time and the NFL decided to steal the NBA’s Christmas Day thunder by scheduling three games on the 25th this year, though none of the three turned out to be particularly compelling matchups from a playoff perspective. The most entertaining was probably Dallas’s 30-23 win over Washington, a game which featured over 800 yards of combined offense and some second half drama after the Commanders were able to pull within a score. The other two contests, Minnesota’s 13-point win over an uninspired Detroit team and Denver’s grind-it-out victory over the defanged Chiefs, were less compelling.
Saturday’s two games had a bit more relevance to the playoff picture, especially Houston’s win over the L.A. Chargers, a result which clinched a postseason berth for the Texans and formally eliminated AFC South rival Indianapolis from contention.
We still have ten games on the Sunday slate plus the Monday nighter, so there’s plenty of football ahead on this holiday weekend. Here are my favorites:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (JAX -5.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis +5.5 at 1.91
The Jags are riding high, having won six straight games, and after last week’s two-touchdown victory over AFC West-leading Denver, the Super Bowl talk has started in Duval. However, despite the fact that they beat these Colts by 17 points just three weeks ago, this feels like a really dangerous spot for a Jacksonville team that is unaccustomed to prosperity. Firstly, this is not the same Colts team, particularly on offense: Daniel Jones was injured in the first meeting between these teams and 44-year-old Philip Rivers is now firmly at the helm of the offense, having started the past two games. Rivers improved tremendously between games one and two (not a surprise, considering he hadn’t played in the NFL since 2021 and had just four days of practice before the initial start against Seattle) and last week was able to light up an excellent San Francisco defense to the tune of 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Indianapolis offense went up and down the field on the Niners in that game and I expect them to have similar success on Sunday against a Jaguars defense that struggles in the secondary, ranking 25th in pass yards allowed, and will be without starting CB Jourdan Lewis after he sustained a foot injury last week. The Colts have defensive issues of their own, but Jacksonville is a division opponent they know well, and Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent on the road throughout his career and has had some rough performances in Lucas Oil Stadium specifically. Indy feels like a sneaky-good bet here as a home underdog of nearly a touchdown.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets (NE -13, 42.5)
Recommendation: New England -13 at 1.89
Drake Maye has the Pats cookin’, winning 11 of their past 12 games, including a tough road victory in Baltimore last week. In this game they have the opportunity to not only clinch the AFC East, but also to finish the season 8-0 on the road for only the third time in franchise history. All that’s standing in the way is the division-rival Jets, a bad team that has become downright noncompetitive since losing their top two quarterbacks to injury and being forced to start newcomer Brady Cook, a rookie from Missouri. Cook has thrown 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions across his three appearances, and the Jets have lost the three games by a combined total of 75 points. In other words, it’s not going well for the youngster. To make matter worse, the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the league, a unit that ranks 28th against the run and 30th in points allowed (28.4 ppg), and based on what we’ve seen these past few weeks, I have a hunch that most of those guys are more concerned about their offseason trip to Cabo than playing the Patriots this week. This is a mismatch in every sense of the word, and it’s likely to get ugly: the Pats have five wins of 13 points or more this season, including one over these Jets back in Week 11, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they covered that number in the first half of this one.
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons (LA -8, 50)
Recommendation: Atlanta +8 at 1.94
Despite the wild loss to Seattle last week, the Rams appear to be in great position for a Super Bowl run, with an offense that is certainly clicking on all cylinders. The defense, though, is another matter, having allowed 38 points to Seattle last week, 34 to Detroit the week before, and 31 to Carolina in a loss two weeks before that. The issues have mostly been in the secondary, a group that hasn’t been the same since losing CB Quentin Lake to an injury a few weeks back. Now Lake’s replacement, Josh Wallace, is out with an ankle injury, forcing the defense to shake things up on the back end even further. That could spell trouble against an Atlanta offense that is playing its best football behind rejuvenated vet Kirk Cousins, who has thrown for 570 combined yards and 5 touchdowns in the team’s past two games, victories over Tampa Bay and Arizona. Cousins has developed great chemistry with TE Kyle Pitts, a former top-10 pick who has been viewed as an underachiever throughout his career but has totaled 395 combined receiving yards in the last four games, the most yards for a tight end in a four-game stretch in franchise history. Pitts will be targeted early and often in this one, and the Falcons offense has terrific balance now that there’s a dangerous passing attack to complement All-Pro RB Bijan Robinson. And though the Atlanta D will definitely have its hand full in this one, it’s a unit that can heat up the quarterback, ranking second in the NFL with 50 sacks, and Matt Stafford has a tendency to put the ball up for grabs when under pressure. While I do expect the Rams to get the win here, this is far too many points to give a Falcons team that is on a winning streak and will be playing what is effectively their Super Bowl after being eliminated from playoff contention: a home Monday Night game against a high-profile contender. Gimme Atlanta +8.
