NFL WEEK 18: We’ve reached the end of the NFL’s regular season, and though most teams are either resting starters in preparation for the playoffs or making plans for offseason trips to Vegas or Cabo, a handful of games still have postseason implications, and a few others may be worth a bet for various reasons. Hey, it might not be the most exciting weekend of the season, but in a couple of months we’ll be pining for a slate like this — 16 games over two days and markets galore. Plus, we know this is only the appetizer for what should be a tremendous postseason: 11 teams with double-digit wins, a two-time defending champ sitting at 15-1 yet seeming strangely vulnerable, past and future MVPs leading ascending teams… it’s going to be great.
As for this week, most of the drama can be found in the NFC, where the Bucs and Falcons are still battling for the NFC South crown — Tampa Bay need to beat New Orleans on Sunday to lock it up, but should the Bucs lose that game, Atlanta will only need to beat Carolina to win the division. The weekend’s best game, however, is undoubtedly the Sunday night showdown in Detroit, where the Lions and Vikings will battle for the NFC North title and the top seed in the conference, which of course includes homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye. It should be a terrific matchup between two of the league’s most surprising teams.
Let’s finish the season strong with three winners:
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -8, 48.5)
Recommendation: Carolina +8 at 1.91
The Falcons can still make the playoffs with a win here and a New Orleans win over Tampa Bay, and the temptation is to think that because this game still has some meaning in the standings for them but not for Carolina, who has long been eliminated, then we should an expect an easy victory. However, this Atlanta team has essentially been playing for their playoff lives for weeks now and they’ve struggled mightily, losing 5 of their past 7 games, with the only wins in that stretch coming over the lowly Raiders and Giants. It’s been a slow-motion car wreck for the past few weeks that has featured some ugly losses, questionable coaching moves, and the benching of a veteran quarterback who was signed in the offseason to resuscitate the franchise. Rookie Michael Penix is now under center and he’s been shaky in his two starts, with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, below 60% completions, and a sub-75 QB rating in both games. The Panthers, meanwhile, have actually been playing their best football of the season — after looking like the league’s worst team through the first half of the year, they’ve picked up some wins over the past couple of months, including an upset of Arizona in Week 16, and have suffered competitive, one-score losses against playoff teams Kansas City, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay. This is a division rivalry, so these teams know each other well… I expect Carolina to keep this one close.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -4.5, 43.5)
Recommendation: Arizona -4.5 at 1.92
The Niners are running on fumes at this point, having lost three straight games and 6 of 7 to fall to 6-10, a record that would’ve seemed unfathomable at the beginning of the season. Injuries are mostly to blame, as key players on both sides of the ball have been dropping like flies all season, including All-Pro stalwarts Christian McCaffrey and Nick Bosa and starting QB Brock Purdy. It will be journeyman Joshua Dobbs under center for San Fran this week against an Arizona defense that has played well over the second half of the season, holding 5 of the team’s past 8 opponents below 20 points. With an offense featuring backups at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver, I struggle to see how the Niners reach the 20-point mark here without some help from their defense, and that defense, so fearsome when fully healthy, has been a shell of itself lately, surrendering 29 points or more in 4 of the team’s past 5 defeats as the front seven has been unable to stop the run. They’ll have their hands full here with Kyler Murray, perhaps the NFL’s speediest QB and a constant threat to hurt a defense with his legs. I just don’t like the vibe of this game for San Francisco — a once-proud team with nothing left to play for, on the road with a tired, banged-up defense chasing around a jitterbug like Murray all game, and an offense led by backups. This is a great opportunity for the Cards to finish the season on a high note. Don’t be surprised if this one turns into a blowout.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (DET -3, 57.5)
Recommendation: Detroit -3 at 2.0
The final game of the NFL’s regular season is a dandy, as the Vikings visit division rival Detroit with the NFC’s top seed on the line. This game also happens to have the highest total we’ve seen in the NFL all season, 57.5, which underscores the type of game we should expect — a high-flying shootout between two of the league’s best passing offenses. These teams have already played one classic this year, a 31-29 Detroit win back in Week 6 that featured nearly 800 yards of total offense, and though that game was in Minnesota, the Vikings have to feel good about the fact that the Detroit defense won’t be now what it was then after losing several starters to injury. Still, the Lions have kept on winning, with the thrilling loss to Buffalo three weeks ago their only blemish in their past 14 games. Jared Goff leads the NFL’s most explosive and highest-scoring offense, a unit averaging 33.3 points per game, and he should have plenty of opportunity against a Minnesota defense that has struggled in the secondary, ranking 28th in the league in passing yards allowed. And that, to me, is what it comes down to here: this Lions offense is just so good, especially at home, that I don’t see them faltering in a critical matchup against a leaky secondary. Look for Detroit to hang about 40 here in a statement win.
