NFL WEEK 18: It’s the first weekend of the New Year and the last weekend of the NFL’s regular season, with the playoffs so close you can smell ’em. While most of the games on this weekend’s slate don’t have significant playoff implications, there are a couple, like Saturday night’s San Francisco/Seattle showdown to determine the NFC’s 1-seed and Sunday night’s win-or-go-home Ravens/Steelers AFC North battle, and there are several more matchups that are interesting for various reasons. Here are three that caught my eye:
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -8, 44.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati -8 at 1.91
The Browns won their own Super Bowl last week (as close as they’re going to get to it this season, anyway) by beating the hated Steelers in the home finale, holding the Aaron Rodgers-led Pittsburgh offense to just 6 points as rookie QB Shedeur Sanders outdueled him down the stretch. Sanders & Co. face a different animal altogether this week with the trip to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that, like Cleveland, is eliminated from playoff consideration but, very much unlike Cleveland, still possesses one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. That unit, led by Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, is as healthy as it’s been all season and has been eviscerating opposing defenses in recent weeks, putting up 82 combined points in wins over the Dolphins and Cardinals. While this Cleveland team may put up more of a fight on defense than those two, the Browns offense can’t get out of its own way, led by Sanders, who is clearly a talented passer but has a penchant for taking bad sacks and putting the ball up for grabs. I feel a blowout incoming here… Cincinnati is going to put on one last show for the home fans before calling it a season.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -4, 36)
Recommendation: Washington +4 at 1.91
The Eagles are preparing for their Super Bowl defense and are locked in to either the 2 or 3 seed in the NFC, depending on the results of this game and Bears/Lions. With only the top seed now receiving a first round postseason bye, the difference between the 2 and 3 seed is negligible enough that Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni has announced that the team will be sitting QB Jalen Hurts and several other key starters for this one, setting us up for a riveting Josh Johnson vs. Tanner McKee quarterback battle. I joke, but on a serious note, Washington’s Johnson is far more experienced than McKee and was fairly effective in leading the Commanders offense in last week’s 30-23 loss to Dallas, going 15/23 for 198 yards and zero costly mistakes. While this Philly defense at full strength would be a stout challenge for Johnson and the Commies, the Eagles will be without an unknown number of their best players on Sunday and this issue will get worse as the game progresses… i.e. some players who start the game will just be out there for a series or two in order to keep them healthy. The fact that this Philly team was in the exact same scenario last year and was able to pull out a 20-13 win over the Giants is perhaps what is keeping this line what is it, with the Eagles as a 4-point favorite. But given the fight we saw from the Commanders last week, and the fact that they will be playing their best healthy players against a team that will be making roster decisions based on something other than winning this game, I just don’t see it. Washington is likely to win this game and is an excellent value as a 4-point ‘dog.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (BAL -3.5, 41)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh +3.5 at 1.95
A Steelers offense that wasn’t particularly explosive to begin with is running out of ammo, with top receiver DK Metcalf suspended, emerging tight end Darnell Washington out with a broken arm, and WR Calvin Austin, the starter opposite Metcalf, battling a hamstring injury that kept him out of action last week. The results weren’t pretty in a Week 17 loss to the lowly Browns, as the offense failed to find the end zone and averaged just 4.5 yards per play. It’s now come down to this: a game against archrival Baltimore for the AFC North crown and a trip to the postseason. Loser goes home. And as bleak as things may look for Pittsburgh (the fact that a mediocre Baltimore team is a road favorite in this game suggests that the outlook is indeed fairly bleak for the Steelers), I have a hunch that Rodgers may have one more great performance up his sleeve, and I have an even stronger feeling that the Steelers have drawn the right opponent here. These Ravens are simply not what they were supposed to be this season, and it seems like everyone was waiting for them to start clicking, any week now, up until about Week 14, but if you pay attention, you know that it hasn’t happening for them and isn’t going to happen. The defense is substandard, particularly the secondary, as only two teams leaguewide have allowed more passing yards. But the offense, the supposed strength of the team, has struggled as well, as Lamar Jackson has been in and out of the lineup with injuries and hasn’t been an All-Pro caliber player in his recent starts. And still, this week the assumption is that the Ravens will have enough on offense, with Jackson back in the lineup after his latest back injury, to overwhelm the punchless Steelers… thus the line here. But Pittsburgh is at home, and when you break it down by position group the Steelers are simply better in more areas. In what should be a tight, low-scoring game, gimme the home ‘dog.
