NFL WEEK 2: After a typically wild Week 1 our attention now shifts to an intriguing Week 2 slate, one in which fifteen of the sixteen scheduled games feature point spreads of 7 points or fewer.
The action kicks off on Thursday night in Buffalo, where a Bills team that produced just 160 total yards of offense in a Week 1 loss to Baltimore will look to right the ship against their division rival Jets (NYJ -1, 40). It’s sure to be a rugged defensive struggle, which is another way of saying it may put you to sleep if you aren’t careful. The 40-point total is the lowest of any game this week, and I still wouldn’t dream of touching the Over.
Here are my favorite games:
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (Was -2.5, 45)
Recommendation: Washington -2.5
The Skins were no match for Pittsburgh in Week 1, but fortunately for them they don’t have to deal with Roethlisberger-to-Brown every week. Dak Prescott is no Ben Roethlisberger, and on Sunday the Redskins get to show the Dallas rookie what NFL road games are all about. They’ll crowd the box, just like New York did last week, and hope that Prescott makes a couple of mistakes or, at the very least, goes 25-of-45 again.
That won’t be good enough to keep pace with an underrated Washington offense— Kirk Cousins threw for 329 yards in a losing effort last week, and he should continue to put up big numbers in a scheme that he’s now quite comfortable with. And remember: the Cowboys aren’t exactly the ’85 Bears on defense. Look for the Skins to take care of business here.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (Bal -7, 42.5)
Recommendation: Cleveland +7
The Browns are being widely ridiculed as the league’s worst team, but that talk may be a bit premature: I fully expect the offense to improve now that Josh McCown is taking over at quarterback for an injured Robert Griffin III, and the defense isn’t quite as bad as people make it out to be. Last week, after all, they limited Philadelphia to fewer than 4 yards per rush on 34 attempts, and their secondary is led by one of the most talented cornerbacks in the league in Joe Haden.
And don’t forget, just less than a year ago– last October, to be precise– McCown lit up these Ravens to the tune of 457 passing yards in an overtime victory, and his supporting cast last season was no better than this year’s version. Baltimore, meanwhile, has an offense that produced just 13 points last week and is still searching for an identity. Is Mike Wallace really going to be their No. 1 receiver?? Or will it be Steve Smith, who’s old enough to be a grandparent and produced just 19 receiving yards on nine targets in Week 1? The Ravens simply aren’t good enough right now to be trusted as a 7-point road favorite.
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (Den -6.5, 46)
Recommendation: Indianapolis +6.5
Denver’s world-class defense will really be put to the test in this one, as Andrew Luck was firing on all cylinders in Week 1 and the Indianapolis offense looked downright scary. With T.Y Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett all now healthy, Luck has what may be the NFL’s fastest receiving corps at his disposal, in addition to a reliable tight end in Dwayne Allen and a versatile, veteran running back in Frank Gore. The result was 385 passing yards and four touchdowns against a very good Detroit defense, and something tells me that statlines like that are going to be a regular occurrence for Mr. Luck this season.
We know the Broncos have one of the NFL’s best defenses, but I have serious doubts about whether they’ll be able to corral this Indianapolis passing attack. And no one would ever accuse this new-look Denver offense of being “explosive”– Trevor Siemian got plenty of pats on the back for his 187-yard, 2-interception performance in Week 1, which gives you an idea of how low the bar was set. Can Siemian and Co. keep pace if Luck finds a rhythm? I’m not sure they can, and when you throw 6.5 points into the mix this becomes an easy decision.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3, 47)
Recommendation: San Diego -3
The Jags were the darlings of the offseason and they gave Green Bay a game last week, so it isn’t a surprise that they’re a popular public bet this week against a San Diego team that is coming off a deflating loss to Kansas City and the even more deflating news that their best receiver, Keenan Allen, will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury. It’s important to remember, however, that the Chargers played extremely well against the Chiefs until the 4th-quarter collapse, and Philip Rivers will now be facing a secondary that isn’t nearly as accomplished as Kansas City’s.
Last November Rivers torched these Jaguars in a 31-25 San Diego win, throwing for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Jags have since added some pieces to their defensive backfield, but they still have issues at safety and their cornerback rotation includes a rookie (Jalen Ramsey) and a guy who’s dealing with a hamstring injury (Prince Amukamara). Rivers will miss Allen but he still has some explosive weapons at his disposal, players like Travis Benjamin and the irrepressible Danny Woodhead (as an aside, if you’re a fantasy plater I highly recommend investing in Benjamin this week). It’s also important to remember that this game is in San Diego and the Jags almost never win out West, going 2-10 in West Coast games over the history of the franchise. I like the Chargers here in an old-fashioned shootout.
