NFL WEEK 3: The third week of the NFL season is especially crucial for teams who have started 0-2, because the data is unkind to those that fall to 0-3, with only 2.5% of such teams going on to make the playoffs since 1990. Well, the Miami Dolphins will now be looking to buck that trend after a Thursday night defeat at the hands of archrival Buffalo left the Fins at 0-3, with QB Tua Tagovailoa looking like a shell of his former self and head coach Mike McDaniel firmly on the hot seat. In fairness, the Dolphins kept it closer than the oddsmakers expected and were driving late with a chance to tie the game until Tua threw a backbreaking interception, his fourth of the young season. But there are no moral victories in the NFL, and it’s going to be a hard road ahead for Miami and any other team that finds themselves in an 0-3 hole after this weekend.
It’s been a nice two weeks for followers of this column, as we’ve gone 6-2 on the picks so far despite backing some traditional doormats like the Browns, Jaguars, Cardinals, and Bears. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling with another Longtime Loser, the Jets, plus three more:
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -6.5, 43.5)
Recommendation: New York +6.5 at 1.91
With Justin Fields recovering from a concussion, it will be veteran Tyrod Taylor under center for the Jets this week as they travel to Tampa to face the undefeated Bucs. Taylor has been one of the NFL’s better backup QB options for years, but he’s 36 years old now and hasn’t started a game since the 2023 season. Still, he should be an upgrade over Fields as a pocket passer, and he’ll be facing a Tampa defense that has been pretty generous to opposing QBs thus far, ranking in the bottom third of the league in pass yards allowed, interceptions, and sacks. The New York defense, meanwhile, has been better in those areas (except for INTs- both defenses have zero), and they’ll be facing a Bucs offense with a depleted line that is now down 4 starters. Baker Mayfield has been bulletproof so far this season, but we know he has a history of putting the ball up for grabs when he’s pressured, and he’s going to under some serious heat in this one. Gimme New York and the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (PIT -1.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh -1.5 at 1.95
The Pats picked up a tough road win in Miami last week, as QB Drake Maye recorded just 4 incompletions and special teams came through in a big way with an Antonio Gibson kickoff return TD. Dark clouds are forming, however: New England is last in the NFL in passing defense by a wide margin through two weeks, surrendering 315 pass yards per game despite facing two offenses in Las Vegas and Miami who have been very ordinary against other opponents. That bodes well for Aaron Rodgers and a Pittsburgh passing attack that produced 4 touchdowns in Week 1 and another one last week, with weapons like DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin, Jonnu Smith, and versatile back Jaylen Warren getting in on the act. Look for the Steelers to put up some points in this one and for the defense to bounce back after a disappointing performance against Seattle. These teams have the same record but that doesn’t mean they’re equal, and I think we’ll look back in a few weeks and realize that Pittsburgh -1.5 in Foxboro was a great opportunity. Don’t let it pass by.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (IND -4, 43.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis -4 at 1.89
Indianapolis has been one of the pleasant surprises of this young NFL season, with Daniel Jones coming over from New York and providing the offense with some much-needed balance and the defense ranking 5th in the league in total yards allowed. This will be the first road test of the season and it will come against a division rival that is in a transitional period, breaking in a new coach and a rookie QB while trying to figure out how to win games. It hasn’t worked out thus far, as the Titans are 0-2 and are fresh off a 33-19 thumping at the hands of the Rams. The offense has had the expected growing pains, but it’s the defense that has actually been more disappointing, ranking 25th in total yards allowed and 28th against the run despite having a veteran unit that was supposed to be much better. The fact that they’re giving up 5.5 yards per rush does not bode well with Jonathan Taylor coming to town, and Jones can hurt you with his legs as well. Cam Ward had better grow up quick if he wants to lead these Titans to some victories… I don’t like his chances this week.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -3, 41.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati +3 at 1.91
It’s the battle of the backups this week, Jake Browning vs. Carson Wentz, and I firmly believe the wrong backup is favored here. Sure, Wentz is experienced, but he’s been terribly ineffective these past few years and betting on his teams has been a bad idea, as he’s gone 3-6 ATS (against the spread) as a starter since 2022, throwing 10 interceptions and getting sacked an astounding 32 times in that span. Browning, meanwhile, is fresh off leading the Bengals on a 90+-yard game-winning drive over Jacksonville last week and should have great familiarity with both the offense and his weapons after appearing in 13 games for Cincinnati over the past three seasons, with 7 starts and a completion percentage of 71.5%. And though the Vikings are supposed to have the better defense, they’ve allowed 5.2 yards per rush so far this season, so this could be the week that Chase Brown and the Cincy running game finally gets rolling. I’ll take the 3 points, but I like the Bengals to win this one outright.
