NFL WEEK 3: Did you see Aaron Rodgers on Thursday night? After looking like a crusty old vet primed for the broadcast booth over the first two weeks of the season Rodgers turned back the clock against a tough Patriots defense, producing a vintage performance with 281 passing yards and 2 TDs in a 24-3 Jets win. If the New York o-line can keep him upright and healthy, the Jets are primed to contend in the AFC East for the first time in several years.
We’ve got 13 games on this Week 3 Sunday and two Monday nighters. Every team still has hope (even if the hope comes in the form of a 36-year old ginger QB), no coaches have been fired yet, and injuries have only begun to wreak havoc on lineups. It’s a glorious time of year. Here are my favorite games:
Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -3, 35.5)
Recommendation: Los Angeles +3 at 1.89
Pittsburgh has started the season with two very on-brand victories, winning with defense and a very conservative offense that borders on hard to watch at times. It’s clear that Mike Tomlin and new OC Arthur Smith don’t fully trust Justin Fields at QB, and this is the sort of game where some weaknesses might surface… the turnovers, the lack of field vision and pocket presence, etc. The Chargers have some veteran playmakers on the defensive side of the ball and they’ve played very well thus far, surrendering only one touchdown in 8 quarters of action. While the LA offense will find the going tough against the stout Pittsburgh D (this game has the week’s lowest total for a reason), Justin Herbert is more dependable than Fields and J.K. Dobbins has been a pleasant surprise in the Chargers backfield, as he currently leads the NFL with 266 rushing yards. LA +3 feels like the right side here.
Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -1, 43.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis -1 at 1.91
It was a rough one for the Colts in Green Bay last week — Anthony Richardson’s flaws as a passer were on full display, and, on an even more concerning note, the defense was run over by the Packers offense to the tune of 261 rushing yards on 53 carries (4.9 ypc). This was despite the fact that Green Bay was starting backup QB Malik Willis, who is limited as a passer and finished the game with just 14 pass attempts. So, it’s clear there are problems on that Indy defense. Fortunately for them, the perfect antidote is coming to town this week — the Bears offense has been an absolute disaster thus far, and with the organization fully committed to the development of top pick Caleb Williams, it’s hard to imagine things turning around soon. Williams is talented, sure, but it’s clear that his head is spinning, he doesn’t have much confidence right now, and he lacks his counterpart Richardson’s ability to do damage with his legs. This is a prime “get well” spot for a Colts team that isn’t as bad as it showed last week.
Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders (LV -5.5, 40.5)
Recommendation: Carolina +5.5 at 1.99
You’ll get a few different opinions on which team looks like the best in the NFL so far this season, but I’m pretty sure most would agree that the Carolina Panthers have been the league’s worst team. They’ve lost their two games by a combined 60 points — worst in the NFL by a wide margin. In response, first year coach Dave Canales made a bold decision that I absolutely believe is the correct decision — he announced that the team was benching starting QB Bryce Young, the top overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, in favor of 36-year-old journeyman Andy Dalton. Young has been terrible, but far too often we see teams stick with highly-drafted players for far too long, especially at the quarterback position. Dalton is more than capable: he’s thrown for over 38,000 yards in his career, and in his one start for Carolina last year he threw for 361 yards on 34 completions, tying for the second-most passing yards in franchise history. I believe he’ll get the Panthers offense moving against a vulnerable Raiders defense, and on the other side of the ball, the Carolina front seven might not look so bad against a toothless Vegas rushing attack that ranks last in the league at 2.5 yards per rush. High potential for an upset here.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -5, 45.5)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +5 at 1.93
The first of two Monday nighters this week takes us to Buffalo, where Josh Allen has led the Bills to two straight victories to open the season and has answered some of the questions that people had about the offense after the departure of top receiver Stefon Diggs. It’s worth noting, though, that the passing attack hasn’t exactly been explosive, with Allen averaging just 180 yards per game through the air thus far, and the Jacksonville defense has been stingy against the run, surrendering just 3.8 yards per carry. The Jags have yet to get the offense revved up, but the key personnel is largely unchanged from the past couple of seasons, so we know what they’re capable of, and the Buffalo defense is banged-up this week and will be starting backups at middle linebacker and in the secondary. This feels like too many points to be giving a Jacksonville team that is better than its record would indicate, especially considering the success that the Jags have had against the Bills in recent years, pulling off upset victories in both 2021 and 2023.
