NFL WEEK 4: As the NFL season rolls into Week 4, storylines are taking shape and truths are being revealed. One such truth (or story, depending on your perspective) is that the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, who have been the team of the decade, winning three Super Bowls and appearing in five since 2020, are no longer what they used to be and might not even be the best team in their division. We’ll find out a lot about this version of the Chiefs this week when they host Baltimore, a team that’s hungry to get where the Chiefs have been. The Ravens are actually 2.5-point favorites in Arrowhead, making Kansas City a home underdog for only the third time in the Mahomes era. We’ve got more on that game in the picks below.
Speaking of the picks, a third straight 3-1 week puts us at 9-3 on the young season, so I hope you’ve been following along. Here’s what we’ve got for this week:
Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders (LV -1, 48)
Recommendation: Chicago moneyline (to win) at 2.08
After a rocky start to his NFL career, Chicago QB Caleb Williams, the first overall pick of the 2024 draft, is finding his footing and is quickly becoming a difference-maker. Much of the credit should go to new Bears coach Ben Johnson and the offense he installed, as the results speak for themselves: Williams was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week last week after throwing for 298 yards and 4 TDs in a win over Dallas, and he now has 18 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions across his past 14 starts. This week he’ll look to carve up a vulnerable Raiders defense that has surrendered more touchdown passes (8) than any unit in the league and is coming off a game in which they gave up 41 points to a Washington offense led by a backup QB. The other side of the ball hasn’t been much better for Vegas, as rookie RB Ashton Jeanty is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and QB Geno Smith has been sacked 12 times and has thrown 4 interceptions through three games. It looks like the same old Raiders, while the Bears are a squad on the rise. The wrong team is favored here.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams (LA -3.5, 49.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis +3.5 at 1.91
The Colts are undoubtedly the league’s most overlooked 3-0 team, as most seem to believe that their success so far, which includes an NFL-best point differential of +47, is just a mirage. We’re three weeks into the season now, however, so I’d challenge you to put aside any preconceived notions about this team and evaluate them for what they are: 2nd in the league in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense, 7th in total defense, 1st in turnover differential… this is a good team playing good football, and they’re going to be a genuine threat in the AFC. The addition of QB Daniel Jones, who looks like a man with a new lease on life after escaping New York, has given coach Shane Steichen something he has lacked throughout his tenure in Indy: a reliable signal-caller who can get the ball out on time and put it where it needs to be. And though Jones is no Anthony Richardson as a runner, his scrambling ability makes a big impact in keeping defenses honest. This week he’ll be facing a Rams D that is coming off a loss to Philly in which they surrendered 40 rushing yards and 4 total TDs to Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, so I expect another impactful performance from Jones. And defensively the ball-hawking Indy secondary should have some opportunities to make plays against Matt Stafford, who has never been shy about putting the ball up for grabs. The Colts simply aren’t getting enough respect in this spot — gimme those 3.5 points all day long.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -3, 47)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +3 at 2.01
Injuries are always a huge part of football, and so far this season the 49ers have been as ravaged by the injury bug as any team in the league. They had a whopping 15 players on the injury report this week, including some of their most impactful guys like starting QB Brock Purdy, both starting receivers (Ricky Pearsall, Jajuan Jennings), and All-Pro DE Nick Bosa, who was lost for the season to a lower leg injury last week. We’ve now learned that Purdy is going to play, though who exactly he’ll be throwing it to remains a mystery. The Jags, for their part, are largely healthy and off to a good start under first-year coach Liam Coen. The running game in particular has been a revelation, as the Jags currently rank 5th in the league in rushing and are averaging 5.1 yards per attempt, while QB Trevor Lawrence has played better than his stats would indicate, with his numbers being hurt by a rash of drops from his receivers. But it’s the Jacksonville defense that I expect to be the difference in this one, as they have two edge rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker who have been terrorizing opposing QBs and making life easy for the back end of the defense. The Niners are banged-up along the o-line and have had trouble protecting the quarterback this season, and Jacksonville will make things difficult in that regard. Given what we know about the current state of both teams, the Jags feel like a sneaky-good play here as 3-point ‘dogs.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (BAL -2.5, 48)
Recommendation: Baltimore -2.5 at 1.91
Sunday’s best game is a clash of AFC heavyweights, and as mentioned up top this is only the third time in the Patrick Mahomes era that the Chiefs have been underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium. In this case, I believe it’s warranted. The Ravens have lost two one-score games to two of the best teams in the NFL, Buffalo and Detroit, and they’ve scored 70 combined points (!) in those games. As a matter of fact, with 111 points across their three contests (37 ppg) the Ravens lead the league in scoring by a fairly sizable margin, and they should keep the party rolling against a Kansas City defense that has fallen off a bit compared to recent years and was recently shredded by LA’s Justin Herbert to the tune of 350 total yards and 3 TDs. Lamar Jackson is at the peak of his powers and his weapons are fully healthy, while his counterpart in this game, KC’s Patrick Mahomes, has been dealing with a receiving corps that is either absent (Rashee Rice), injured (Xavier Worthy), or old (Kelce, JuJu). As a result, the once-fearsome Chiefs offense has looked like a shell of its former self this season, with a limited running game and no real threats downfield. They rank in the bottom-half of the league in every major offensive statistic and have yet to score more than 22 points in any game. Frankly, it’s difficult to imagine them keeping pace with this high-powered Baltimore attack, Arrowhead or no Arrowhead. This one might not be as close as the experts think.
