NFL WEEK 4: The fourth week can be viewed as the end of the beginning of the NFL season — bye weeks start in Week 5, and injuries and roster attrition are now a week-to-week fact of life. Before we know it, coaches will start getting fired and playoff races will begin to take shape. It’s crucial for us as bettors to try and determine just who is going to be on the field for each team each week, and with the way players go down during practice and coaches obfuscate injury reports, that’s easier said than done sometimes.
The Vegas Raiders are the latest victim of a crucial mid-week injury, as star receiver Davante Adams hurt his hamstring during Thursday’s practice and has already been ruled out for Sunday’s game, with more games likely to follow. The Raiders were already down two starters for this week’s tilt against Cleveland and All-Pro defensive end Maxx Crosby is officially listed as doubtful, so if you’re going to back the Raiders, just know it won’t be the same Raiders team that upset Baltimore two weeks ago.
We split our four games last week, nearly sweeping Sunday’s three before being proven spectacularly wrong on Monday night, when Buffalo utterly embarrassed the disappointing Jaguars and gave their backers the most stress-free win of the season. The Bills have another primetime test on Sunday night and I’m through doubting them for the time being.
Here are my favorites this week:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PHI -1.5, 42.5)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay moneyline (to win) at 2.12
The Eagles limp into Tampa without their top two receivers and their best offensive lineman, and yet they are still slight favorites. This has everything to do with the Buccaneers’ 26-7 blowout loss to a bad Denver team last week, a performance which shattered the market’s confidence in a Bucs team that had won its first two games but wasn’t expected to be a legitimate contender. There was a bit of “ah, we knew it!” after last week’s result, I believe. This might be a good matchup for Tampa Bay, however — not only is Philly seriously depleted on offense, but the secondary has really struggled to contain opposing wideouts this season, allowing 85+ yards and a touchdown to at least one receiver in every game. Well, the Bucs have two receivers who are capable of torching defenses — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the latter of whom currently ranks 3rd in the NFL in receptions and 8th in yards. I have a hunch Tampa responds to last week’s disappointment with a comfortable victory over an Eagles team that should have difficulty moving the ball consistently.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (NY -7.5, 39.5)
Recommendation: New York -7.5 at 1.9
For the first time in a long time, it feels like there is genuine hope in New York. The Jets have a winning record, an excellent defense, exciting young playmakers at running back and wide receiver, and a future Hall of Fame quarterback who still has a bit of tread left on the tires. If you’re a good team, which I believe the Jets are, you take care of business in situations like this: a home game against a losing team starting a rookie quarterback who has yet to throw his first NFL touchdown pass. The Broncos picked up a feel-good home win over Tampa last week but now their struggling offense and rookie QB Bo Nix will face a defense that leads the NFL in sack rate — the Jets have sacked opposing QBs on 16.7% of their pass attempts despite rarely rushing more than four. The Denver defense is pretty darn good in its own right, and despite a low total like 39.5 I’d be awfully nervous about better the Over in this game. That said, the Jets offense has been very efficient with Aaron Rodgers under center, and the emergence of Breece Hall means that Rodgers can be a true “game manager”, take what the defense gives him and not have to force anything to Garrett Wilson. It hasn’t been exciting, but it’s been effective, and I expect ARod and the Jets to grind the Broncos to dust this week. We don’t do score predictions, but I’m thinking 24-6, something like that.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers (CIN -4.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Carolina +4.5 at 1.98
While much of the focus in Cincinnati during the preseason centered on Ja’Marr Chase’s contract dispute and potential holdout, the issues that have risen to the surface during the team’s 0-3 start have less to do with Chase, Joe Burrow, and the Cincinnati offense and more to do with a dreadful Bengals defense. Did anyone see that game on Monday night? Rookie Jayden Daniels and the pedestrian Washington offense made mincemeat of the Bengals stop unit, putting up 38 points and scoring on every possession aside from when they took a knee before halftime and on the game’s final play. Now the Bengals go on the road to face a Carolina team that is in a unique situation: after two blowout losses the Panthers responded to head coach Dave Canales’s bold benching of 2023 top overall pick Bryce Young with a resounding 36-22 win over Las Vegas in a game that saw longtime Bengals QB Andy Dalton throw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Panthers offense looked like the ’99 Rams with Dalton under center, and though this will be the fourth time that the Red Rifle has faced his old team since leaving, it will be the worst Bengals defense he’s seen by a wide margin. This should be a back-and-forth game with plenty of scoring, and I feel like the line here is being heavily influenced by Carolina’s ugly pre-Dalton losses and Cincinnati’s high preseason expectations. We try to live in the now, though, and for now, the Panthers look pretty tasty as a 4.5-point home ‘dog.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -2.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Buffalo +2.5 at 1.95
I know that pretty much everyone still thinks the Ravens are a legitimate contender despite losing 2 of their first 3 games, with the road win in Dallas last week serving as validation for those thoughts. I’m not sure the Cowboys are that good of a team right now, however, and frankly I’m not sure about Baltimore, either. The defense has really struggled, particularly in the secondary, ranking last in the NFL in passing yards allowed by a wide margin. That’s bad news when you’re about to face Josh Allen, who is playing great football in a new-look Bills offense that emphasizes spreading the ball around and is no longer reliant on one or two players in the passing attack. Through three games Buffalo is averaging an incredible 37.3 points per game, which is 10 more ppg than any other team in the league! It might be time to stop doubting and waiting for this offense to come back to earth; we may need to get with the program and start recognizing the Bills as the AFC’s top team. I think more people’s eyes will be opened to this fact after a Sunday night win in Baltimore.
