NFL WEEK 5: We’ve learned to expect the unexpected in the NFL, and the first four weeks of the 2016 season have certainly delivered in that regard. Who could have predicted that the defending NFC champion Panthers would be 1-3, with their vaunted defense surrendering 29.5 points per game? Or how about the team they defeated in last year’s NFC Championship game, Arizona? The Cards are also 1-3, and they’ll be without starting quarterback Carson Palmer as they travel to San Francisco to face the Niners on Thursday night (Ari -3.5, 43.5).
And then there’s the other side of the coin— the Eagles and Cowboys are improbably looking like Super Bowl contenders despite fielding rookie quarterbacks, the Patriots have proved that Belichick’s black magic— and not the exploits of a certain jet-setting quarterback with a penchant for manicures and frosted tips— is the straw that truly stirs the drink in New England, and the Rams have reeled off three straight wins after a Week 1 performance that left the NFL world mystified as to how Jeff Fisher still has a job.
What is real? What is a mirage? Piles of money await those who come up with the right answers… here are my answers for this Week 5:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (Phi -3, 46)
Recommendation: Detroit +3 at 2.0
The Philly bandwagon has quickly filled up over the past couple of weeks and is nearing full capacity as it pulls into Detroit, where the Eagles will face the 1-3 Lions on Sunday. Coming off a bye and sporting an unblemished record, it’s no wonder the Eagles are a popular public play here, but I believe this is a classic case of Overvalued vs. Undervalued and should be bet accordingly.
Firstly, Detroit: the Lions simply aren’t as bad as people are making them out to be. Their three losses have come by a combined 11 points, they have a top-10 offense led by a quarterback who’s playing the best football of his career, and their defense has held up quite nicely in two of their four games— not coincidentally, the two games in which they weren’t facing elite quarterbacks (Luck, Rodgers). And say what you want about Eagles rookie Carson Wentz and his terrific start to the season, but he most definitely is not an elite QB. As a matter of fact, a lifetime spent watching rookie quarterbacks tells me that a rude awakening may be coming for Mr. Wentz very, very soon.
I’m also not yet sold on the Philly defense— yes, I saw them dominate Pittsburgh in Week 3 and the turnaround job that Jim Schwartz has done is certainly impressive, but when you look at their personnel, especially in the secondary, it doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. Look for Matt Stafford to expose that secondary and lead the Lions to a much-needed home win.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys (Cin -1, 45.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati -1 at 1.91
Like their division rivals in Philadelphia, the Cowboys have enjoyed considerable early-season success behind a rookie quarterback and an overachieving defense. Their dominant offensive line has helped out immensely, as has their schedule, which has featured four defensively-challenged teams in San Francisco, Chicago, Washington, and the New York Giants.
Enter the Cincinnati Bengals, a team about as far removed from those four squads as one can be. The Bengals are a tough, rugged, veteran-laden team with postseason experience and a history of roughing up opposing quarterbacks. Their best player, linebacker Vontaze Burfict, is now back in action after missing the first three games of the season due to suspension, and they’re coming off a dominating performance in which they held a good Miami offense to 7 points and 222 total yards. I simply cannot fathom the Dak Prescott-led Dallas offense having any meaningful success against this Bengals defense.
The matchups should be more even on the other side of the ball, with one glaring exception: the Cowboys have struggled in the secondary thus far, ranking 20th in pass defense, and the Cincinnati offense features one of the league’s very best receivers in A.J. Green. Dallas will have to devote multiple defenders to Green, which will open things up for the capable Andy Dalton and the thunder-and-lighting backfield tandem of Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. This is the same formula that Cincinnati has used for the past couple of years, and it’s proved effective. Dallas won’t have an answer for these Bengals.
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7, 48)
Recommendation: Green Bay -7 at 1.91
It’s been a surprisingly slow start to the season for the Packers, as wins over Jacksonville and Detroit proved to be unsatisfying while the loss to Minnesota was a bit demoralizing. There are reasons for optimism, however: Aaron Rodgers has generally been a slow starter throughout his career, and in his last outing he began to show flashes of his MVP form in throwing four touchdown passes against a decent Lions defense.
Rodgers seems to be getting his bearings and figuring out how to get everybody involved now that Jordy Nelson is back, and a Week 4 bye was likely helpful in that regard. The bye is also notable because of how well Mike McCarthy’s Green Bay teams have generally responded to the off week, covering in 10 of the past 13 opportunities.
When it comes down to it, though, this bet is more about the Giants: having watched them play extensively over the past four weeks, I’ve come to the conclusion that they’re every bit as unreliable/underachieving/frustrating/maddening/inconsistent as they were last year… and the year before that… and the year before that. Eli Manning has been unimpressive, Odell Beckham seems to be losing his mind, and new coach Ben McAdoo has an undeniable shoe-salesman vibe that makes you wonder if he can possibly be respected and taken seriously in an NFL locker room. The Giants are firmly on my “sell” list right now, and I fully expect them to get pasted in Green Bay this week.
