NFL WEEK 6: The NFL season rolls on, as a Week 5 that was somewhat devoid of quality matchups now gives way to a Week 6 that features several of them. It almost feels like a playoff week in the NFC, where division leaders Atlanta and Seattle will meet, the red-hot Cowboys will travel to Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and Philadelphia visits Washington in a critical NFC East battle.
The AFC schedule is a bit less inspiring, though the Cincinnati/New England game has potential and the bitter Chiefs/Raiders rivalry promises to be even spicier than usual now that both teams are legitimate playoff contenders (welcome back from the abyss, Oakland).
It all gets started on Thursday night, when the 4-1 Denver Broncos bring their fearsome defense out West to face division rival San Diego (Den -3, 45.5). It’s been a rough start to the season for the Chargers, but the chance to back the superior quarterback as a home ‘dog will surely tempt some bettors. I believe there are better opportunities out there, however…
L.A. Rams @ Detroit Lions (Det -3, 44)
Recommendation: L.A. +3 at 2.05
The Lions picked up a much-needed home win over Philadelphia last week, but the problems that plagued them over the first month of the season have not gone away. Being unable to run the ball is one thing— Matt Stafford has been erratic in the past, but he’s also shown that he can carry an offense with his arm and he seems very comfortable in Jim Bob Cooter’s scheme. The Detroit defense, however, is beginning to look like a problem that cannot be overcome.
Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz absolutely carved up the Lions secondary last week and brought his team back from a two-touchdown deficit, only to come up a point short when Ryan Mathews fumbled at midfield late in the game. Now ranked 25th in the NFL in total yards allowed, the Lions D can’t stop the run, can’t stop the pass, and can’t hold onto a lead.
Enter the Rams, a team with a rock-solid defense and a gifted young running back who has yet to break out this season. The conservative, ball-control approach on offense is reminiscent of a team like the Tennessee Titans, who ran all over these Lions two weeks ago (23 car, 140 yds) in an upset victory. Thing is, the Rams are better than the Titans everywhere but at quarterback, and even that is debatable given Marcus Mariota’s recent struggles. And playing a pass-first team on the road shouldn’t be a problem either, as the Rams have already won two such games this season (Arizona, Tampa Bay). The secondary is the strength of their defense (along with the pass rush, which works hand in hand), and I expect them to force the mistake-prone Stafford into a couple of bad decisions. L.A. wins this one outright.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (Phi -2.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: Washington +2.5 at 1.91
You can almost feel it unraveling in Philly, can’t you? The defense was exposed a bit last week, the offense seems over-reliant on a rookie QB, and now comes the news that right tackle Lane Johnson, the team’s best offensive lineman, will have to immediately begin a 10-game suspension that he had been appealing. Reality is beginning to set in after a feel-good September.
The Redskins, meanwhile, are unquestionably on the upswing after three straight wins. Kirk Cousins has recaptured last season’s form and now ranks sixth in the league in pass yards per game, and young tailbacks Matt Jones and Chris Thompson is progressing nicely and providing the offense with the balance that it had lacked at times in the past.
Make no mistake: the Washington offense is still the Kirk Cousins Show, but Jones and Thompson have provided a backfield punch that has made the unit much more difficult to defend. And “more difficult to defend” is a problem for the Philly defense, considering they surrendered 61 combined points to these Redskins in two games last year. Public perception is a funny thing, though, and the public is still warm on the Eagles after weeks of hearing so-called experts comparing Carson Wentz to a young Joe Montana and proclaiming last season’s abysmal defense “fixed”. I have a feeling the Philly bandwagon will begin to lose passengers after this week.
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (Sea -6, 45.5)
Recommendation: Seattle -6 at 1.91
After topping off a 4-game winning streak with a victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, it’s fair to say that Atlanta is as hot as any team in the NFL right now. The offense has been nearly unstoppable, leading the league by a wide margin in both yards per game and points scored, and the defense… well, the defense is still really bad, but it doesn’t much matter when you average over 35 points per game, does it?
Problem is, most offenses— even the best ones— are abruptly brought down to earth when they travel to Seattle to face the Legion of Boom. The Seahawks are as good as ever defensively, ranking first in the NFL in yards allowed and second in points allowed— a stat they’ve led the league in for each of the past four seasons, an NFL record. Now, that doesn’t mean that an explosive offense like Atlanta’s won’t be able to make some plays, but it will definitely be a different sort of game for the Falcons— they’ll have to grind out long, sustained drives, Julio Jones will be blanketed and bothered by the game’s best (and most physical) defensive backfield, and Matt Ryan will be pressured and harassed, something that has given him major issues in the past.
And did we mention that Atlanta defense? There’s no bright spot— 26th in yards allowed (388.8 ypg), 27th in points allowed (28.0 ppg), 28th against the pass… and the only reason the run numbers don’t look worse (17th in rushing defense, 98.6 ypg allowed) is because the opposition has frequently been put in “pass-first” mode due to the success of Ryan and Co. Take away some of the offensive explosiveness, and the Falcons begin to disintegrate. I believe Seattle will be able to do that, and I look for a big game out of a rested Russell Wilson, who should be fully healthy again after the team’s Week 5 bye. The Seahawks will win this one, and it won’t be close.
