NFL WEEK 6: This Week 6 kicked off with a Mahomes-to-Kelce masterclass, as the tight end who has made more news lately with his love life than his play hauled in 9 catches for 124 yards in Kansas City’s 19-8 win over Denver on Thursday night. The Chiefs are now 5-1 and in firm control of the AFC West, as usual, while the Broncos dropped to 1-5 and did very little to provide their fans with hope going forward. They did provide their bettors with a little cheer, however, as the Chiefs went conservative after building a 16-0 lead and a Russell Wilson touchdown pass late in the 4th quarter allowed the Broncos, a 12.5-point underdog, to sneak in for the backdoor cover.
Our Sunday will start with an early London game again– this time it’s the Titans and Ravens from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the Jags defeated the Bills last week despite a raucous pro-Buffalo crowd. Other highlights of this Week 6 slate include Detroit’s visit to Tampa Bay for a showdown of division leaders, a battle for supremacy in the AFC South between the Colts and Jaguars, and a fun Monday nighter between the Cowboys and Chargers in Los Angeles, where the “home” fans will surely be outnumbered in the stands by the Cowboys contingent. It’s par for the course for the Bolts, a good team that nobody likes, not even in their hometown.
Here are my favorites this week:
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens *LONDON* (BAL -4.5, 41.5)
Recommendation: Tennessee +4.5; Tennessee moneyline (to win) at 2.99
Mike Vrabel’s teams are always tough as an underdog, and it doesn’t just seem that way– since Vrabel took over as head coach in 2018 the Titans have won more games (23) outright as a betting underdog than any team in the league. This week they face a flawed Baltimore team that is coming off a bad to loss Pittsburgh, a loss that exposed some serious issues on offense. Yes, Lamar Jackson is still an electric playmaker, but his most (only?) talented receiver is a rookie, and the running game has been very average since losing J.K. Dobbins to a season-ending injury. The Tennessee defense has allowed just 5 passing TDs this season and the offense is starting to find its identity now that DeAndre Hopkins (12 catches for 204 yds in last 2 games) is asserting himself downfield, opening things up for the Derrick Henry-led rushing attack. The line has drifted in the Baltimore direction this week after opening at BAL -3, but sometimes betting into a line move is the right play, and I have a feeling the Titans will find a way to win this one outright.
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -2.5, 42.5)
Recommendation: Washington +2.5 at 1.95; Washington moneyline (to win) at 2.2
I think Arthur Smith is a good coach and he’s getting pretty much all he can out of his outmanned Falcons, who sit at 3-2 after a narrow win over Houston last week. The offense is a definite concern, though, as only four teams leaguewide have scored fewer points, and it’s difficult to envision it getting much better with Desmond Ridder at the helm, a player who will probably be an adequate backup for many years but is clearly overmatched as a full-time starting quarterback. His counterpart on Sunday, Washington’s Sam Howell, is a young player who makes some dumb mistakes, but he has shown an ability to read NFL defenses and deliver the ball downfield that is beyond what Ridder can do. It certainly helps with you have the likes of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel on the perimeter, and the Commanders have been able to find the endzone with some regularity this season, reaching the 20-point mark in 4 of their 5 games. Moreover, the Commies have the talent in the defensive front seven to make things challenging for the Falcons on the ground and force Ridder into the uncomfortable position of winning the game with his arm. I don’t like his chances.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -4, 44)
Recommendation: Indianapolis +4 at 1.96
Coming off a two-week stint in London and a win over Buffalo that boosted their value in the betting marketplace, the Jags feel ripe for a letdown here. They struggled with the Colts back in Week 1, only pulling away late after some bad plays from a rookie quarterback making his first career start, and that quarterback, Anothony Richardson, will be sitting this one out due to a shoulder injury. He’ll be replaced by Gardner Minshew, who began his career in Jacksonville and has already led the Colts to wins over the Ravens and Titans this season. Minshew throws the ball better than Richardson, there’s no doubt about that, and with the way the Indy offensive line has been run blocking it’s going to be difficult to stop whoever the Colts have carrying the ball, whether it’s Zack Moss or Jonathan Taylor. This is a dangerous spot for a Jacksonville team that has been plagued with inconsistency– gimme the Colts and the points.
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (MIA -14, 47.5)
Recommendation: Miami -14 at 2.0
It’s difficult to envision any part of this going well for Carolina. The Dolphins have the NFL’s best offense by any measure, averaging 36.2 points and an incredible 513.6 yards per game– that’s over 100 ypg more than Philadelphia, the league’s second-ranked offense! That is simply incredible. We assume this scorched-earth run can’t last simply because there’s not a precedent for it in modern NFL history, but I don’t expect the train to slow down against a Carolina defense that surrenders 28.8 points per game and will be without at least 2 starters in the secondary, and possibly 3 if cornerback Donte Jackson can’t go. Expect more wild statistics from the Miami pass-catchers and more gaping holes for the running backs, who probably won’t see an 8-man box all season. The Panthers offense is ill-equipped for this type of game, as rookie QB Bryce Young has thrown for just 750 yards on the season, averaging a mere 5.2 yards per attempt, and starting RB Miles Sanders has been ruled out with a shoulder injury, putting even more pressure on Young and his underwhelming receiving corps. This one could get ugly… real ugly.
