NFL WEEK 7: This NFL season has already delivered plenty of surprises, but heading into last week there were two things that most observers agreed upon: Kansas City was the best team in the AFC, and Green Bay was either the best or second-best team in the NFC. The Chiefs, after all, were the league’s only remaining unbeaten team and had defeated heavyweights like New England and Philadelphia, while the Packers were 4-1 and coming off a big win in Dallas, with quarterback Aaron Rodgers leading the way and putting up MVP-type numbers.
Well… that was then. The landscape has changed considerably since last Sunday, as the Chiefs lost yet another game to their nemesis, Pittsburgh (a team that was coming off a 21-point loss to Jacksonville, mind you), while the Packers were dealt a devastating blow when Rodgers broke his collarbone in a loss to Minnesota. The NFC is truly wide open now, and if you ask three different people who the best team in the conference is, you’ll probably get three different answers.
It’s pretty much the same situation in the AFC. Defending Super Bowl champion New England has been atrocious defensively and may not even be the best team in their own division, but aside from the Chiefs there hasn’t been any team that looks elite, or even close to elite. I mean, the great Peter King, probably the NFL’s most well-known and plugged-in reporter, ranked Houston fifth in his latest leaguewide power rankings. Houston! A 3-3 team led by a rookie quarterback that just lost its best defensive player for the season! It seems ridiculous… but then I tried to rank the teams myself, and all the teams that I was trying to bump into the top-5 are every bit as flawed as the Texans. It’s just been a crazy year.
Fortunately, things are falling into place where they matter most, as we won all of our bets last week and have now returned to profitability after a slow start to the season. Hopefully we can keep the good times rolling with these four plays:
ARIZONA CARDINALS vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS (LONDON) (LA -3.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Arizona +3.5 at 1.87
The Rams have been one of the NFL’s pleasant surprises thus far, winning four of their first six games after losing 11 of 12 to end the 2016 season. They’ve been dong it with offense, averaging over 37 points per game in their four wins behind the power running of Todd Gurley and some timely downfield passing from second-year quarterback Jared Goff. They’ve faced some bad defenses, however, and against the better defenses they’ve seen— like Washington, Seattle, and Jacksonville— the results haven’t been so rosy, with the Rams losing to the Seahawks and Redskins and gaining only 249 total yards in last week’s win over the Jags. In other words, there’s a strong likelihood that much of L.A.’s success on offense this season has been the product of a soft schedule.
It won’t be easy this week against an Arizona defense that has been excellent against the run this season, surrendering just 3.3 yards per attempt, and has a secondary that features Patrick Peterson, perhaps the NFL’s premier cornerback. It’s been a weird season in Arizona, as the 3-3 Cards have been wildly inconsistent, but they’ve won two of their past three games and may have struck gold last week when they traded for Adrian Peterson, who was languishing on the bench in New Orleans but rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns in his Cardinals debut. Peterson balances out an offense that ranks second in the NFL in passing yards, and that offense will be facing a vulnerable Rams defense that currently ranks 24th in the league in yards allowed. I think the Cards have an excellent chance to pull the minor upset here, but I’m happy to take the points.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (Mia -3, 38.5)
Recommendation: New York +3 at 2.0
It’s been a surprising start to the season for the Jets, as a team that many thought was the worst in the league a month ago has now won three of its last four games, with only an official’s egregious blown call in the final moments of last week’s game against New England standing the the way of a possible 4-game winning streak. The defense has been solid, limiting five of six opponents this season to 24 points or fewer, but what’s really been surprising has been the play of the offense, particularly quarterback Josh McCown. A 38-year old journeyman who is on his seventh team, McCown was expected by most to be a placeholder for a terrible team, soaking up snaps and the corresponding punishment until one of New York’s young QBs was ready. But McCown has been effective, and last week offensive coordinator John Morton opened things up to stunning results: McCown attempted 47 passes, 16 more than he had in any other game this season, and completed 31 of them for 354 yards and two touchdowns against the high-priced New England secondary.
This week McCown and the Jets get another divisional foe, Miami, in a rematch of a Week 3 game that New York won 20-6. The Dolphins produced only 225 total yards of offense in that game, and though they’ve since picked up three wins the offense has continued to struggle, failing to produce more than 20 points in any game thus far. Jay Cutler has been as inconsistent as ever at quarterback, and the o-line has been a disappointment. The Dolphins are good in the defensive front seven, however, so if the Jets are going to move the ball in this game McCown will have to do the heavy lifting. But based on what we’ve seen lately, he sure seems up for it. I think the Jets are an attractive play here as a 3-point ‘dog.
DENVER BRONCOS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (pk, 40.5)
Recommendation: L.A. moneyline at 1.96
The Chargers are either the best bad team in the NFL or the unluckiest good team. They now sit at 2-4 after back-to-back wins, but three of their four losses have come by 3 points or fewer, including a Week 1 loss to Denver in which Younghoe Koo’s 44-yard field goal attempt was blocked in the closing seconds. They have an elite quarterback in Phillip Rivers, Pro Bowl talent at the skill positions, and a pair of terrific young pass-rushers in Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, of course, but right now when I look at this Chargers team I see playoff potential. And yes, I realize that’s an unusual thing to say about a team with a 2-4 record.
Denver, on the other hand, may be regressing. The Broncos have lost two of three, and the last one was totally inexcusable– a 13-point home loss to an 0-5 Giants team that was without its top four wideouts. It was a dispiriting performance to say the least, and while the defense should bounce back and remain one of the league’s better units, the offense now seems to be stuck in a rut with no easy way out– they’ve scored 16 points or fewer in three consecutive games despite facing both the Raiders and Giants in that stretch, two teams that rank 25th and 28th, respectively, in total defense. To make matters worse, the Broncos will be without Pro Bowl receiver Emmanuel Sanders this week as he rests his injured ankle. The defense should keep things competitive, but I think Denver is simply outgunned here.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Phi -4.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: Washington +4.5 at 1.91
These are high times in Philly, as the Eagles are 5-1 and are regarded by many as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They have one major weakness, however: the secondary. Despite finding ways to win each week, the Eagles have been unable to slow opposing passing attacks and now rank 29th in passing defense, with only Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, and New England surrendering more yards through the air so far this season. And it’s a problem that’s not going away, because it’s a personnel issue— guys like Jalen Mills have been picked on relentlessly, and if you’re expecting Ronald Darby’s imminent return to fix everything, I think you’re going to be sorely disappointed. This is an extremely tough matchup for the Philly secondary, as Washington has a sophisticated passing attack and Kirk Cousins has really been spreading the ball around this season— six Redskins are currently on pace for at least 35 receptions.
Of course, the Eagles beat the Redskins 30-17 back in Week 1, and that result, combined with the fact that the Eagles have been winning and are playing at home this week, has surely given some prospective Washington bettors pause. But the ‘Skins lost three fumbles in that Week 1 defeat, and I don’t care how good you are— it’s tough to win when you lose three fumbles. Plus, the Washington defense has steadily improved over the past month and now ranks 8th against the run and 11th in total yards allowed. I just don’t think there’s much difference between these two teams, and I expect Kirk Cousins to have a huge night in his second go-round against this Eagles secondary. Don’t be surprised if the Redskins win this one outright.
