NFL WEEK 7: It’s that time of year when injuries and other unexpected occurrences force teams to find new ways to win, and that’s exactly what the Browns did on Thursday night, pulling out a 3-point victory over Denver despite being without their starting QB and their top two tailbacks. Case Keenum filled in for Baker Mayfield and effectively managed the game, but it was third-string running back D’Ernest Johnson who stole the show, turning 22 carries into 146 yards and a touchdown in his first career NFL start. If you’re unfamiliar with Johnson and his backstory, I highly recommend this short documentary that was produced last year. He’s an easy young man to root for.
This Week 7 features several lopsided matchups, with 5 of Sunday’s 11 games having point spreads of a touchdown or more and three of those sporting double-digit numbers. Opportunity abounds for those who know where to look, and I’ve got a good feeling about these four:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -6.5, 47.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati +6.5 at 1.89
Baltimore is the trendy team of the moment, having won five straight games since a season-opening loss in Las Vegas. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the straw that stirs the drink, of course, and the Ravens rank in the top-5 in both rushing offense and rushing defense. Even in today’s pass-happy NFL, that’s a pretty good recipe for success. That being said, Baltimore does have some issues– the secondary has struggled, surrendering 277.3 ypg (26th in NFL), and the running back position has been hit hard by injuries, forcing the team to bring some guys out of retirement and, if the reports about Devonta Freeman this week are true, thrust them into the starting lineup. And remember– last week’s dusting of the Chargers notwithstanding, the Ravens have been in a lot of close games this season, with 3 of their 5 victories coming by 6 points or fewer, including wins over the Lions and Colts, teams that aren’t exactly Super Bowl contenders.
This week Cincinnati comes to town, and the Bengals appear to match up well with their division rivals: Joe Burrow and his cadre of wideouts can attack the vulnerable Baltimore secondary, and the Cincinnati defense has been stout against the run this season, surrendering just 90 ypg and fewer than 4 yards per carry. Lamar Jackson is 5-0 in his career against Cincinnati, but these aren’t the same old Bengals, and I think Cincinnati has an excellent chance to keep this one close and possibly even steal the victory.
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins (ATL -2.5, 47.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta -2.5 at 1.99
After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season everyone pretty much wrote Atlanta off, myself included. But I suppose there were always going to be some growing pains with a first-year coach and new offensive system, and since getting some things straightened out in pass protection the Falcons have been much better, quietly winning 2 of 3 to pull within a game of the .500 mark with lots of football still left to play. This week they travel to Miami to face a Dolphins team that is crumbling, having dropped five straight, including a loos to the lowly Jaguars in London last week.
Miami’s problems are twofold: first, the defense has badly regressed. You’re not going to win too many games ranking 30th in the league in both yards allowed and points allowed. But the bigger concern from a franchise perspective has to be the quarterback play, as the man who was supposed to be the savior, Tua Tagovailoa, is looking more and more like a bust. He locks in on his first read too often, takes too many chances, and seems to be easily fooled when defenses disguise coverages, which is happening more and more as opposing defensive coordinators realize what they’re dealing with. The Atlanta defense has played better than expected this season– nobody would ever confuse them with the ’85 Bears, but they’re better than the Jacksonville defense that Tua saw last week, and they’ve held 2 of their last 3 opponents to 20 points or fewer. I expect the Falcons to take care of business in this one, making the “Deshaun Watson to Miami” noise even louder next week.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders (LV -3, 49)
Recommendation: Las Vegas -3 at 1.95
The Jon Gruden situation was a disaster for Mark Davis and gold for media types and gossip hounds, but it’s effect on the players themselves proved to be minimal, as the Raiders won in Denver last week as 4-point underdogs. That shouldn’t come as a surprise– these are professionals, not college kids, and something a coach may have typed in an email a decade ago doesn’t mean much when you’re lining up across from a 260-pound elite athlete who’s trying to put your face in the dirt.
On the field, the Raiders have some things to be encouraged about, most prominently the play of Derek Carr and the offense. Carr has been brilliant this season, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards and leading an offense that has put up 26 points or more in all four of the team’s victories. He is far and away the best quarterback in this game, as his counterpart, Philly’s Jalen Hurts, is simply not a good enough passer to threaten NFL defenses. Last week’s game against Tampa was typical for Hurts: he made some plays with his legs, rushing for 44 yards and 2 TDs, but he managed just 115 yards passing on 26 attempts, and that was against a Bucs defense that has been struggling mightily in the secondary. The Raiders have a top-10 pass defense, so it will be a surprise if they aren’t able to hold the mediocre Philly offense in check. Vegas is 4-2, playing at home, and facing a rookie QB… don’t let the off-field circus distract you from these cold hard facts.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams (LA -16, 49.5)
Recommendation: Detroit +16 at 1.91
I mean… I had to. This is the NFL. These are professionals. And it’s not like these Rams have been winning all their games by 20 points– of the six games they’ve played this season, they lost one and won three others by 10 points or fewer. Throughout his career, Matthew Stafford has been known for occasional dud performances that make you scratch your head and say “how does a guy with that much arm talent look so ordinary at times?” That has been the book on Stafford for the past decade. Six games with a new team does not fundamentally change who a player is, and I’ll tell you right now I don’t trust Matt Stafford as a 16-point favorite, this week or any week.
Plus, the Lions are not the Houston Texans, the other team who is a ridiculously big underdog this week. The Texans are starting a rookie quarterback and the offense has failed to reach 10 points in 3 of the team’s last 4 games. Detroit, on the other hand, is led by Jared Goff, who will be facing the team that he led to the Super Bowl just three years ago. Goff has his flaws, but he’s completing nearly 67% of his passes this season and has given the Lions a chance in nearly every one of their games, the two exceptions being Week 2 against Green Bay and last week against Cincinnati. In their last road game, the Lions lost a 19-17 heartbreaker to Minnesota. In other words, this Detroit team has not folded the tent– they’re competitive most weeks, and they have a veteran QB who knows what he’s doing. Goff will find some success against a Rams defense that ranks 21st against the pass. Bottom line: 16 points is too many in this situation.
