NFL WEEK 8: We’re in the thick of it now, with playoff races beginning to take shape, injuries to key players piling up, and desperation setting in for some teams. One of those teams is most definitely the New York Jets, who have seemingly given the reins of the franchise to 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers after firing head coach Robert Saleh two weeks ago and trading for Rodgers’ buddy Davante Adams. The debut of the new look Jets didn’t go as planned last week, as they were stomped in Pittsburgh by a Steelers team that has been far from dominant this season. Yet now the Jets are laying a touchdown on the road against a division opponent, and at 2-5 it feels like now or never for them.
Another team in desperate straits is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who probably would’ve canned head coach Doug Pederson had they lost to the Patriots in London last week but now return home at 2-5 in a weak division, with faint hope. Unlike the Jets, the Jaguars don’t get a layup this week — they’re hosting a Green Bay team riding a 3-game win streak and coming off a victory over a Texans team that sits atop the AFC South and has already beaten the Jags. That said, Jacksonville has been showing signs of competence on offense and the Green Bay D is a little soft up front, surrendering 115 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.
Does it sound like I’m making a bit of a case for both of these desperate teams? Well, I guess I might be…
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (NY -7, 41.5)
Recommendation: New York -7 at 1.91
I realize the Jets have been incredibly underwhelming thus far, but I’m finding it really difficult to make a case for New England in this matchup. The Patriots are probably the worst team in football — the defense has regressed after a strong start to the season and the offense is downright pathetic, producing just 14.1 points per game, the second-worst mark in the league. They were dominated by the 1-5 Jags in London last week and now they return home to face a desperate Jets team that happens to have superior talent across the roster. That will be accentuated this week with the debut of DE Haason Reddick, who ended his season-long holdout a few days ago and will be thrown into the mix immediately as a situational pass rusher. The Pats are starting rookie Drake Maye at quarterback and they don’t have any skill position players who scare opposing defenses, so this is a golden opportunity for the Jets D to have a signature performance and put last week’s struggles in the rearview. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers is now surrounded by elite weaponry and Breece Hall seems to have found his rhythm in the offense. Back in Week 3 the Jets put one on these Patriots, cruising to a 24-3 win, and I fully expect a similar sort of result this time around.
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (GB -4, 48.5)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +4 at 1.96
The Packers take to the road this week for only the third time this season, and something tells me this trip down to Jacksonville won’t be quite as easy as the records would suggest. Sure, the Jags have only won 2 of 7 games thus far, but they’ve been one or two plays away in a handful of their losses and they’re getting healthier on the defensive side of the ball, as top cornerback Tyson Campbell is now back from the hamstring injury that forced him to miss a few games. They’ll need Campbell against the wide-open Green Bay passing attack, and they also need to take advantages of opportunities when they present themselves — Campbell dropped an easy interception last week, and though Jordan Love has been good so far this season, he’s a quarterback who will throw one or two to the defense every game. The Jags won’t be able to totally shut down the Packers offense, so timely turnovers and stops will be key in this one. Green Bay can be exploited defensively, especially against the run, and the Jaguars may have an emerging star on their hands in second-year RB Tank Bigsby, who is averaging 6.2 yards per rush and has been getting a bigger workload every game. This game feels like it’s going to be like just about every game these teams play — close. Four of Jacksonville’s first 5 games were decided by 5 points or fewer, while the Pack have had 5 games this season decided by 6 points or less. That makes a 4-point number seem kind of large here, doesn’t it? Gimme the home ‘dog.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ATL -2.5, 45.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta -2.5 at 1.89
While the Bucs were a pleasant early-season surprise, it sort of feels like things are beginning to crumble. Mark my words: we are in the beginning stages of an unfortunate slide that will end with Tampa Bay falling out of playoff contention. Baker Mayfield lost his favorite target, Pro Bowl wideout Chris Godwin, to a terrible injury on a meaningless play at the end of last week’s loss to Baltimore, and he’s also without Mike Evans, his other star wideout, due to a hamstring issue. That doesn’t leave him with much in the way of talent on the perimeter, and though the Bucs have run the ball a little better this season, it remains to be seen if they can do so without Evans and Godwin stretching the field. But the bigger concern for Tampa Bay in this matchup is on the other side of the ball: the Bucs defense allows 5.4 yards per rush on outside zone plays, the third-worst mark on the league (h/t ESPN stats and info). Well, the outside stretch zone run just happens to be the bread-and-butter play for the Atlanta offense and their explosive tailback Bijan Robinson. This was a tough matchup for the Bucs the first time around, when the Falcons pulled out a narrow win in Week 5, and now, without Godwin or Evans, I’m just not sure how they’re going to outscore a Falcons offense that put up 36 points last time and has been balanced and effective in recent weeks.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -4.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Dallas +4.5 at 1.92
These are dark days in Dallas — Jerry Jones paid everybody, the roster is what it is, and yet they look nothing like a Super Bowl contender, particularly after the embarrassing 38-point loss to Detroit in Week 6. They’ve had a bye to lick their wound and regroup, though, and I expect a much better performance when they go on the road this week to face the banged-up Niners. Already down Christian McCaffrey, the NFL’s top offensive player, the 49ers will be without leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk for the rest of the season and will likely be without Deebo Samuel this week. I know Kyle Shanahan is a great play-caller, but his genius s really going to be put to the test now — Brock Purdy isn’t the type of quarterback who’s going to carry the offense with his arm, and you can be sure that opposing defenses will be crowding the box and forcing the San Fran offense into uncomfortable situations. The Cowboys certainly have the personnel to make it a long day for Purdy & Co., and the high-priced Dallas offense has all the ingredients to be one of the NFL’s best once again, just as they have been for the past couple of seasons. Mike McCarthy is 3-1 coming off a bye since taking over in Dallas, and after the disaster against Detroit two weeks ago you assume that motivation won’t be an issue. I like Dallas to keep this one close and possibly pull off the outright upset. It may not be pretty, though.
