NFL WEEK 8: We’re well past the introductory phase of the 2016 NFL season and are fast approaching the time when playoff races heat up, coaches are fired, and the true Super Bowl contenders begin to emerge. Bettors and oddsmakers alike now have loads of information on every team, so we can expect firm opinions and tight lines going forward. It’s time to get to work, in other words.
Remarkably, the Week 8 slate doesn’t include a single game that features a point spread of more than 6.5 points, meaning another stressful Sunday full of down-to-the-wire finishes is all but guaranteed. It all gets underway on Thursday night in Tennessee, where the Titans are currently listed as 3-point favorites over Jacksonville despite a 1-3 home record and an offense that seems perpetually stuck in the mud. A Jaguars loss may very well be the final chapter in the head coaching career of Gus Bradley, who is now a ghastly 14-40 in 3-plus seasons with the team. Finishing the Bradley era with back-to-back losses to Jack Del Rio and Mike Mularkey— the two coaches who directly preceded Bradley in Jacksonville— would be just the type of sick cosmic justice that the bumbling Jags probably deserve.
Here are my favorite Week 8 games:
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Pk, 49)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay moneyline at 1.88
The Raiders are riding high after winning in Jacksonville to improve to 5-2 on the year (and 4-0 on the road!), but they’re in a tough spot this week when they travel to Tampa to face an improving Bucs team. The Bucs have now won two straight and are coming off their most complete performance of the season, a 17-point win over San Francisco in which they outscored the Niners 34-3 over the game’s final three quarters. The defense— particularly the young secondary— has steadily improved since a shaky start to the year, and the Winston-to-Evans connection is surely keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night.
As a matter of fact, I’d be surprised if Oakland’s defensive staff slept at all this week considering they preside over a unit that ranks last in the NFL (32 of 32) in both total yards allowed and pass yards allowed. The Raiders simply don’t have the personnel to handle Mike Evans on the perimeter, and the Tampa rushing attack has been good enough to keep defenses honest despite being down to a third-string tailback (though Jacquizz Rodgers sure isn’t running like a third-stringer…). Oakland will move the ball and put up some points as well— this is not going to be a 10-7 defensive struggle, I assure you— but I’ll take my chances with a confident, high-scoring home team that will be going up against the league’s worst defense.
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints (Sea -2.5, 48)
Recommendation: New Orleans +2.5 at 2.05
Because every NFL fan with a pulse knows that Seattle has been better than New Orleans over the past few years, including this year, this is the type of game that instantly becomes the Lock of the Week for countless barroom experts and country club prognosticators. A team they trust, Seattle, is a mere 2.5-point favorite over a team they’ve learned not to trust, New Orleans. It’s a Free Money Giveaway! How could the bookies possibly be so stupid?
It is my belief that these people do not understand the depth of Seattle’s issues on offense. The Seahawks can’t run the ball consistently like in years past, so they’ve been forced to shift to a more pass-first look, which would be fine if they had any legitimate perimeter weapons outside of Doug Baldwin, which they do not. Jimmy Graham has emerged as a threat but it just hasn’t been enough, and Russell Wilson’s nagging knee issues have limited his mobility and made him more of a conventional QB. It all adds up to mediocrity, and the ‘Hawks currently rank a miserable 29th in points scored at just 18.5 per game. The Saints have a bad defense, there’s no doubt about it, but I’m not sure the Seattle offense is good enough to fully exploit the situation.
And what the Saints lack on defense, they certainly make up for on the offensive side. Drew Brees leads the NFL with 339 pass yards per game and the team ranks second in total offense, behind only Atlanta. It will be tough sledding against the stingy Seattle D, but Brees and Co. are machinelike on the fast track of the Superdome and the Saints have traditionally been a great bet at home, going 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 home games vs. teams with winning records. I have a hunch that New Orleans will surprise some people here.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (Den -4.5, 43.5)
Recommendation: San Diego +4.5 at 1.91
The Broncos have an excellent secondary, that much we can all agree on. But they’ve been soft against the run this year, surrendering over 116 rushing yards per game (23rd in the NFL), and their offense has looked downright ordinary over the past few weeks. Gone are the oohs and ahhs over Trevor Siemian’s accuracy and pocket presence, and in their place has crept the sinking realization that, truth be told, Siemian is a bottom-tier NFL starter at this point in his career.
Denver has had some success running the ball, but this week’s opponent, San Diego, ranks 8th in the league against the run and Broncos tailback C.J. Anderson is out with a knee injury. And remember, these teams met on a Thursday night in Week 6 and San Diego defended the Denver offense very well, eventually slogging out a rather ugly 21-13 win. The Chargers followed that performance with an impressive come-from-behind win in Atlanta last week, and now deserve reevaluating as a 3-4 team that’s been right there in every game, with each of their four losses coming by 6 points or fewer. Philip Rivers is playing the quarterback position at an All-Pro level, and halfback Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 94 yards against these Broncos in the first meeting, has given the running game some juice.
The Chargers do have issues in the secondary, but will Siemian be able to take advantage? He’s sure to be bothered by Joey Bosa, San Diego’s much-hyped first-round rookie who has been a revelation since stepping on the field, generating QB pressures at an almost unbelievable rate. I don’t have much faith in the Denver offense after what I’ve seen lately, and while this game’s location makes a San Diego bet feel a bit risky, what I see here is an opportunity to back the team that has been playing better of late and has the unquestionably superior quarterback, with a 4.5-point sweetener to boot. That’s good enough for me.
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