NFL WEEK 8: This Week 8 kicked off with a good one on Thursday night, as the Packers handed the Cardinals their first loss of the season after a Kyler Murray pass was intercepted in the end zone with only seconds remaining in a 24-21 game. Murray struggled all night but the blame for the final play can be laid at the feet of receiver A.J. Green, who would’ve scored the game-winning touchdown had he turned around and looked for the ball. As it is, the Cards now become the fifth NFC team with only one loss, joining the Rams, Cowboys, Bucs, and Packers. Let the race for postseason byes and home-field advantage begin…
None of the games on this Sunday slate quite measure up to Arizona/Green Bay in terms of star power and potential playoff ramifications, but there are some intriguing matchups nonetheless, like Tennessee’s trip to Indianapolis to face the suddenly surging Colts, Patriots vs. Chargers in Los Angeles, where Bill Belichick will try to devise a way to slow down Justin Herbert and the explosive LA offense, and the Sunday nighter in Minnesota, where the Vikings will look to snap the Cowboys’ five-game winning streak. We’ve been on a nice little run lately, with a half-point in the Atlanta/Miami game the only thing preventing us from the clean sweep last week. Let’s keep the good times rolling with these four:
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -3, 46.5)
Recommendation: Atlanta -3 at 1.91
These teams are moving in opposite directions, as the Falcons have won 3 of 4 to pull back to .500 on the season while the Panthers have lost four straight, the latest being a 25-3 embarrassment at the hands of the lowly Giants. The Carolina offense is in shambles, with turnover-prone quarterback Sam Darnold seeming to have lost his confidence and All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey still sidelined by an injured hamstring. Atlanta has a defense that can be exploited, but so did the Giants… fact is, without McCaffrey the Panthers don’t have much in the way of elite playmaking talent, and Darnold’s struggles have become impossible to ignore– he was benched in favor of P.J. Walker last week, and over the past 48 hours rumors have been swirling that Carolina is looking to trade for Houston’s Deshaun Watson.
The Atlanta offense, on the other hand, has begun to find its groove under new playcaller Arthur Smith, putting up 27 points or more in three consecutive games as Matt Ryan has formed a bond with star rookie TE Kyle Pitts, who has more receiving yards through the first six games of his career than any tight end in NFL history. With Pitts, Pro Bowl receiver Calvin Ridley, and all-purpose weapon Cordarrelle Patterson, who is having the best season of his career, Ryan has some legit weapons at his disposal, and the outlook for Atlanta’s season is suddenly much different than it was a month ago. Look for Ryan to exploit a Carolina defense that has allowed 25 points or more in 3 of the team’s past 4 games, and for the Falcons to come away with a relatively comfortable home win.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions (PHI -3.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: Detroit +3.5 at 1.92
At 0-7, the Lions are the NFL’s lone remaining winless team. But I’m telling you right now, the Eagles had better be careful this week. Detroit coach Dan Campbell still has his team playing hard and believing, and the Lions have been competitive in nearly every game, with 4 of their last 5 losses coming by 10 points or fewer. And it’s not like they’ve been playing a bunch of cupcakes– Green Bay, Baltimore, Minnesota, Cincinnati, the LA Rams… it’s been a tough road for these Lions, but they’re usually within shouting distance of the victory, as was the case last week, when they were a 16-point underdog in LA but held a 4th quarter lead over the Rams before letting it slip away.
Things get a bit easier this week when the struggling Eagles come to town– Philly has dropped two straight and 5 of 6 since a season-opening win over Atlanta, mostly because of an offense that has major problems. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has simply proven unable to beat defenses from the pocket, and injuries to the running back position have only increased the burden on the young QB. It would be a major surprise if Hurts were able to outplay his counterpart, Detroit’s Jared Goff, who is completing 67% of his passes on the season and is coming off a 268-yard outing against a tough Rams defense. It sure feels like this is the spot for Detroit to finally pick up a victory… the Eagles don’t have any business being a road favorite over anybody right now. Gimme the Lions and the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -3.5, 44)
Recommendation: Jacksonville +3.5 at 1.98
Betting on the Lions and the Jags in the same week is… unorthodox, to put it mildly. Jacksonville had lost 20 consecutive games before beating Miami in London last time out, and needless to say the franchise doesn’t have a particularly stellar record when it comes it traveling across the country to face West Coast teams. That being said, the Jags are clearly improving, and the improvement was evident before they finally broke through with a win last week, as they nearly upset both Arizona and Cincinnati, two of the NFL’s best teams, before ultimately blowing 4th quarter leads in both contests.
In Seattle, meanwhile, there are no signs of improvement– quite the opposite, actually. Everyone knew the offense would stumble when Russell Wilson went down, but I don’t think people realized just how bad it was going to be– last week, for instance, the Seahawks managed just 10 points, 129 passing yards, and 219 total yards in a loss to New Orleans. Such offensive ineptitude might not be so costly if the ‘Hawks had a good defense, but unfortunately for them the defense has been sieve-like this season, especially in the secondary, as only Miami has allowed more passing yards. Jacksonville rookie QB Trevor Lawrence has shown that he isn’t afraid to challenge defenses down the field, and he’ll be a much stiffer test for the Seattle secondary than Jameis Winston of the Saints proved to be last week. This just feels like a great spot for the Jags– coming off a bye and healthier then they’ve been in several weeks, they get a Seattle team with a backup QB, backup RBs (Chris Carson is still out), and a defense that set an NFL record earlier this year for most consecutive games with 450+ yards allowed. Despite Jacksonville’s 1-20 record over the last 21 games, the wrong team may be favored here.
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers (LA -4.5, 49)
Recommendation: New England +4.5 at 1.92
A few short weeks ago it looked like New England was floundering, particularly on offense, where things just haven’t been the same since Tom Brady left for Tampa. Over the last three weeks, however, we’ve seen a turning of the tide– the Pats have won 2 of 3, with their lone setback in that stretch an overtime loss to the 5-1 Cowboys, and they’re coming off a performance that was far and away their best of the season, a 54-13 shellacking of division rival New York. Mac Jones looks comfortable, the running game has it rolling, and the defense is finally approaching last year’s form.
All that being said, this week’s challenge will not be easy– the Chargers have one of the league’s most explosive offenses, and first-year coach/playcaller Brandon Staley has drawn rave reviews for his ability to game plan and carve up a defense. The Bolts did get stomped in Baltimore last week, however, and they’ve only won one game by more than 6 points– a 28-14 victory over Las Vegas in Week 4. The defense has been totally unable to stop the run, ranking last in the NFL in both total rushing yards allowed (162.5 ypg) and yards per carry allowed (5.4 ypc!!). Rather than wondering why they’ve only won one game by more than 6 points, we should probably be marveling at the fact that they’ve won any games at all while surrendering more than 5 yards per rush. Patriots running back Damien Harris is a tough inside runner who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, and it’s anybody’s guess how LA is going to stop him. The Chargers will surely be able to put up some points, although it will be interesting to see whether Bill Belichick learned anything from Baltimore’s game plan last week, as the Ravens flustered Chargers QB Justin Herbert and totally shut down the LA attack, holding them to a mere 6 points and 208 total yards. I’m betting that Belichick and the Pats will find a way to keep this one close, if not steal the win outright.
