NFL WEEK 9: This Week 9 kicked off with the long-awaited breakthrough for Aaron Rodgers and the new-look Jets, as they rallied from a halftime deficit for a 21-13 victory over the AFC South-leading Houston Texans. Rodgers threw three second-half touchdown passes, two to Garrett Wilson (one of which has to be seen to be believed) and one to old friend Davante Adams, who finished the game with 7 receptions for a team-high 91 yards. The win kept the Jets season alive, if on life support, moving them to 3-6 and second place in the weaker than expected AFC North. They need to string together a few more wins, for sure, but it’s not over for them yet. The Texans, meanwhile, sit at 6-3 and should be getting top receiver Nico Collins back from injury in the coming weeks.
We’ve got some good ones on tap for Sunday, highlighted by Detroit’s visit to Lambeau Field for a showdown with the Packers — a game that could prove to be critical when it comes to playoff seeding and home-field advantage. I’ve had bad luck in games involving Green Bay this season so I’m steering clear of that one, but I feel strongly about a few others. Here’s what I’m thinking:
Las Vegas Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -7, 45.5)
Recommendation: Cincinnati -7 at 1.91
After back-to-back wins the Bengals laid an egg against Philadelphia last week, surrendering 27 second-half points in a 37-17 loss that dropped them to 3-5 on the season. Fortunately for them, they get to recover with a home game against the lowly Raiders, a team that has lost four straight and hasn’t topped the 20-point mark since Week 3. While poor quarterback play has been an obvious culprit for the dysfunction in Vegas, the disastrous offensive line situation has made it nearly impossible to get anything going, regardless of who is under center. This week the Raiders will be using their fifth different starting o-line combination, with rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson being forced to move from left guard to center for the first time in his career. So, we know what it’s going to be like for the Vegas offense, because we’ve seen it every week: they will struggle to move the ball and struggle to score points. That much is certain. The question here is whether the Bengals offense can break out of their own mini-funk and turn this one into a laugher. The Raiders have a decent secondary and Maxx Crosby is always a problem, but it’s a defense that has surrendered 27 points or more in 3 of the team’s past 4 games. I don’t see them hanging with the Bengals for 4 quarters.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -6.5, 49.5)
Recommendation: Miami +6.5 at 1.91
It’s difficult to bet on the Dolphins right now because they’ve been so bad for the past six weeks, dropping 5 of their past 6 games, but with Tua now back under center and a game under his belt to get re-acclimated, it’s only a matter of time until the “real” Dolphins return and start rolling (right??). Very few offenses in the league can stress an opposing D like this Miami unit, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle outside and the explosive De’Von Achane in the backfield. The Buffalo defense hasn’t been as stout as in years past and the Bills have been feasting on an easy schedule — incredibly, none of their 6 wins has come against a team that currently has a winning record. This feels like a sneaky-good spot for a Dolphins team that is finally whole again and is facing a Bills team that may not be quite as good as the record indicates. I’m not sure if Miami can pull off the outright upset, but 6.5 points is a lot — too many, in my opinion.
Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -2, 44.5)
Recommendation: Arizona -2 at 1.94
The Bears have a winning record and a plus-44 point differential, and yet I am convinced that they are a bad team (or maybe a mediocre team) masquerading as a good one. The offense has struggled to move the ball consistently, ranking 27th in the NFL in yards per game and 28th in passing, and rookie QB Caleb Williams still gets panicked and discombobulated in the pocket far too often, resulting in wild plays and turnover opportunities for the defense. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have won back-to-back games for the first time since 2021 (incredible, isn’t it?) and have finally found some balance to their offense after years of the “chuck and duck” routine, with James Conner ranking 9th in the NFL in rushing and QB Kyler Murray ranking 32nd. As a team the Cards are averaging 5.2 yards per rush and the Bears can be exploited in the defensive front seven, so I expect a heavy dose of Conner in this one. Don’t be surprised if mistakes from the Chicago offense end up blowing open a close game.
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings (MIN -5.5, 46.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis +5.5 at 1.92
The big story coming into this game is the Colts benching of quarterback Anthony Richardson, a top-10 pick in 2023 who many expected to be the face of the franchise in Indianapolis for years to come. Richardson has struggled mightily as a passer, however, and with the Colts in the thick of the AFC playoff race at 4-4, head coach Shane Steichen did what he felt like he had to do to win games and keep the locker room on his side. So now it’s 39-year-old Joe Flacco at the helm, a grizzled vet who has played quite well in spot duty for the Browns and Colts over the past two seasons. He’s 2-1 in three starts this year, and the one loss was his most impressive performance, as he threw for 359 yards and 3 TDs in helping the Colts hang 34 points on the Jacksonville D. And considering that only two teams leaguewide have surrendered more passing yards than the Vikings, I expect Flacco to connect with wideouts Josh Downs and Michael Pittman early and often in this one. He’ll be able to exploit the Minnesota defense in ways that Anthony Richardson simply cannot. The Vikings have dropped back-to-back games, surrendering 30+ points each time, and getting back on track against these Colts isn’t going to be easy. I’ll happily take Indy and the 5.5 points.
