NFL WEEK 9: This Week 9 kicked off with a Thursday night snoozer, as Baltimore pummeled Miami 28-6 in a game that was every bit as lopsided as the final score would indicate. After the game the Dolphins fired GM Chris Grier, which means head coach Mike McDonald is effectively a lame duck and the whole operation will be torn down and rebuilt following the season. The Ravens, meanwhile, have won back-to-back games and are right back in the thick of the AFC North race despite a dismal 1-5 start to the season.
Speaking of dismal, we endured our first losing week of the season last week, whiffing on 3 of our 4 bets. We’re still well in the black, however, and I like the look of this week’s slate. Here are my favorites:
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (DET -8.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: Detroit -8.5 at 1.91
Tough spot for the Vikings here, and not just because of the injury to veteran QB Carson Wentz and the general dysfunction we’ve seen from the Minnesota offense this season. While that stuff is a concern, and going up against the aggressive, pressure-heavy Lions defense will definitely be a significant challenge for young J.J. McCarthy, it’s the other side of the ball where I just don’t see much hope for the Vikes. Sure, their defense is generally reliable, Brian Flores is one of the best coordinators in the game, and Jared Goff tends to perform better against man schemes than the zones schemes that Flores favors. But we’ve seen this movie before: these teams are division rivals, of course, and in recent years Detroit has had no problem shredding this Minnesota D, putting up 30+ points in each of the past four meetings between the two teams. So, what will be different this time around, with a Lions team that ranks second in the NFC in points scored, averaging 30.7 ppg? Barring injury or weird turnovers, I don’t see how the Vikings slow them down. There is one difference in these teams, however: Minnesota’s offense is worse than usual. Draw your own conclusions from there.
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (NE -4.5, 45)
Recommendation: Atlanta +4.5 at 1.91
I’ve lost betting on the Falcons a couple of times recently, but we’re back to beat our heads against that wall one more time, as I simply believe that 4.5 points is too many for New England to give this Atlanta team. Make no mistake, the Falcons have an excellent defense. They rank 2nd in the NFL in total yards allowed and 1st against the pass by a wide margin, surrendering a mere 149 yards per game through the air. This will be a stiff test for Drake Maye and a Patriots offense that is improving but is still a middling unit which lacks the type of skill-position talent that would scare a good defense. The Falcons do have such talent with guys like Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and of course the irrepressible Bijan Robinson out of the backfield, and New England has been mediocre on defense, especially in the secondary, where they rank in the bottom-half of the league in pass yards allowed. This is going to be a tight, fairly low-scoring game I believe, and Atlanta pulling off the outright upset certainly isn’t out of the question. That said, we’ll take the points. They may come in handy.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders (JAX -2.5, 44)
Recommendation: Las Vegas +2.5 at 1.95
Things are beginning to come unraveled in Jacksonville, as the Jags have lost two straight games, the last one being an ugly 35-7 thumping at the hands of the Rams, and were handed some brutal injury news this week: Travis Hunter, the do-it-all rookie who was emerging as Jacksonville’s most explosive offensive player in addition to being a key member of the secondary, was placed on IR after a non-contact injury in practice. That leaves an already struggling Jags secondary without maybe its best cover corner, so I would expect Raiders QB Geno Smith to have a big day here against a Jacksonville D that ranks 27th against the pass and has been trending downward since trading top CB Tyson Campbell to the Browns for Greg Newsome, who has been targeted repeatedly in his brief time in Jax. The Raiders are just 2-5 on the year but they’ve been quite competitive at home, going 1-2, the two losses coming against two winning teams (Chargers, Bears) by 12 combined points. I expect them to pull off the minor upset here. Moneyline (to win) might be a good option at 2.32.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (KC -2, 52.5)
Recommendation: Kansas City -2 at 1.91
The AFC’s top two teams and top two quarterbacks meet once again, this time in Buffalo, where the Bills have had considerable regular-season success against the Chiefs in recent years (postseason success… not so much). This will be the 10th meeting between these two teams in the past five years, years in which both have won their respective divisions and have often (four times to be exact) met in the playoffs with everything on the line. So, these teams know each other well, both schematically and personnel-wise, and the 52.5-point total here indicates that oddsmakers believe the offenses will firmly have the advantage and will be racing each other down the field. While it’s true that both defenses have taken a slight step back this season, Buffalo’s struggles have been more pronounced as injuries have piled up, and only one team, the defensively-challenged Cincinnati Bengals, allow more rush yards per game than these Bills. If they can’t control the Kansas City rushing attack in this game, they have no shot at slowing down the Chiefs offense, and even if they can, this will be a significant challenge, as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing attack has been red hot since the return of top receiver Rashee Rice from suspension. Unlike some of the recent matchups between these teams, when Buffalo has had the more explosive offense but Kansas City the better defense, the Chiefs are playing markedly better than the Bills on offense right now and the defenses are about a wash. This one might not be as close as the experts predict… look for Kansas City to win by a relatively comfortable margin.
