NFL WEEK 9: We’ve reached the midway point of the 2016 regular season, with the trade deadline passing this week and teams around the league preparing for a playoff push or, at the very least, a second-half run that secures future employment for all involved.
There weren’t a lot of surprises around the deadline, with one notable exception: New England dealt linebacker Jamie Collins, a cornerstone of the defense who is just entering his prime years, to Cleveland for a 3rd-round pick in next year’s draft. The truly stunning part of the move is not that Belichick parted ways with a talented veteran— we’ve seen this before from him, after all, and it usually works out pretty well for the Pats— it’s the timing: the Patriots lead the AFC East and are well-positioned for a Super Bowl run, and Collins was indisputably a major part of the defense. So it’s a bit of a head-scratcher, to be sure. But as an astute Twitter commentator noted, there’s a high likelihood that the Dark Lord of Foxboro knows something that we don’t— “Jamie, we’re trading you. Also, we received your medical reports. You are dying.”
Week 9 kicks off with an NFC South clash in Tampa, where the 3-4 Bucs will look to beat the 5-3 Falcons for the second time this season and plunge the division into chaos. Atlanta is a 4.5-point favorite at BETDAQ, and the 50-point total seems a little high to me. That being said, last Thursday brought us 58 combined points from offensive juggernauts Jacksonville and Tennessee, so it’s probably best to proceed with caution (note to self).
Here are my favorite games this week:
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (Min -6, 41)
Recommendation: Minnesota -6 at 1.91
After a surprising 5-0 start the sky is suddenly falling in Minnesota, as the Vikes have now suffered back-to-back double-digit losses and appear to be regressing badly on offense. The situation exploded this week when offensive coordinator Norv Turner suddenly resigned in a move that shocked the football world, and now everybody– talking heads and the betting public alike– seems to be jumping ship. Detroit has been a popular public play as a 6-point ‘dog throughout the early part of this week, and many are picking the Lions to win the game outright.
While Minnesota undeniably has personnel-related issues on offense that aren’t going away, it’s the defense that carried the team to the five early-season wins, and that defense is healthy and surely hungry to get back on track after a rough couple of weeks for the entire organization. The opponent is a division rival they know well, the game is at home, and the opposing quarterback– Matt Stafford– has had turnover issues throughout his career.
I think we’re going to see a dominating performance from the Minnesota D here, and the offense should be able to make some things happen against a vulnerable Lions secondary that ranks 21st against the pass. You never know, the offense might actually improve in Turner’s absence, as new coordinator Pat Shurmur called plays for Sam Bradford in both Philadelphia and St. Louis and therefore has intimate knowledge of the quarterback’s strengths and weaknesses. Don’t give up on this Vikings team just yet.
N.Y. Jets @ Miami Dolphins (Mia -3.5, 44)
Recommendation: Miami -3.5 at 1.91
Things are quietly turning around in Miami, as the Dolphins have won two straight and look to even up their record at 4-4 when the Jets come to town on Sunday. New York is also coming off two wins, but obvious problems remain: the Jets rank last in the NFL in passing defense, and the offense has been plagued by injuries and poor quarterback play.
The turnaround in Miami can be chalked up to improved play in the trenches, particularly on the offensive line. Injury issues had reduced the line to a patchwork unit over the first half of the season, but the starters are healthy again and have come together to play some really impressive football over the past two games, paving the way for unheralded running back Jay Ajayi to top 200 yards rushing in back-to-back weeks. Ajayi won’t put up those kind of numbers against New York’s stingy front seven, but Ryan Tannehill, Jarvis Landry and Co. should be able to feast on the hapless Jets secondary. Look for Miami to creep back into the Wild Card picture with a feel-good win in front of the home fans.
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (Pk, 43.5)
Recommendation: Oakland moneyline at 1.91
In what has to be the biggest regular season game in Oakland in a decade, the 6-2 Raiders will face 6-2 Denver with first place in the AFC West on the line. While all the talk centers on the respective strengths of the two teams— Oakland’s high-scoring offense and the dominant Broncos D— I think the game may be decided on the other side of the ball, where an improving Raiders defense will look to stop a Denver offense that seems to be slowing down.
Losing C.J. Anderson certainly hurts, but the primary culprit for the offensive regression in Denver is the play of the quarterback. Trevor Siemian has been unable to recapture his early-season magic since suffering a shoulder injury a few weeks ago, and reality is beginning to set in: the Broncos rank 27th in the NFL in total offense, and the cavalry isn’t coming. They are what they are, and significant improvement seems unlikely at this point.
The Raiders, on the other hand, are clearly making strides on defense. They’ve been steadily tightening things up since surrendering 69 combined points in their first two games, but the improvement has been particularly noticeable over the past two weeks in wins over Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. They totally dominated the Jags until giving up some garbage time yards, and last week against Tampa they kept it up all game, surrendering just 270 total yards to a very dangerous Bucs offense. There’s no reason to think this trend won’t continue against Denver’s middling offense, which is why I like Oakland’s chances here. Derek Carr hits a big play or two and the Raiders prevail in a fairly low-scoring game.
