NFL WEEK 9: We’re approaching the midpoint of the season and the outlook for the NFL’s two conferences couldn’t be more different: in the NFC, six teams– Arizona, Dallas, Green Bay, L.A., Tampa Bay, and New Orleans– have clearly separated themselves, with the 7th and final playoff spot in the conference totally up for grabs.
In the AFC, on the other hand, the standings are hopelessly muddled: there are zero one-loss teams (as opposed to four in the NFC), and no fewer than 11 teams are within two games of the conference lead. Those who have had disappointing starts to the season, like Kansas City and Cleveland, are still in good shape for a playoff push, while nothing is guaranteed for division leaders like Oakland and Baltimore. So we’re just getting started– there are lots of twists and turns left in this season, and it’s important to keep an open and agile mind as we attempt to predict the future.
With that in mind, here are my favorites for Week 9:
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Giants (LV -3, 46.5)
Recommendation: New York +3 at 1.91
The Raiders have been dealt a tough hand this season– first, their coach was caught in an email scandal that swiftly led to his resignation. And now, an even tougher and more tragic blow, as starting wideout Henry Ruggs killed someone while allegedly drunk driving in the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Ruggs has been arrested and released, and judging from Derek Carr’s words in a press conference on Thursday there has been a heavy cloud hanging over the organization all week. Now, I’m usually the first to point out that NFL players are grown men and professionals, and that a lot of what the media terms “off-field distractions” don’t really matter all that much once you strap on the pads and take the field on Sunday. I have backed the Raiders multiple times since Jon Gruden’s resignation and they have continued to play well, winning 5 of their 7 games to take the lead in the AFC West.
That being said, this situation feels different. Not only was Ruggs a key player for the offense, he was apparently a popular personality in the locker room, and based on everything we’ve heard coming out of Vegas this week it sounds like the air has been let out of the balloon, so to speak. Now they must pick up the pieces and travel across the country to face a Giants team that isn’t as bad as their record would suggest– if you remove lopsided losses to the Cowboys and Rams, two of the NFL’s best teams, New York’s most recent games have looked like this: a 1-point loss to Washington, 3-point losses to Atlanta and Kansas City, and wins over New Orleans and Carolina. They’ve been pretty competitive, in other words, and the defense in particular seems to have found its stride. This just feels like a really tough spot for Vegas, all things considered… despite the difference in the records, I believe the wrong team is favored here.
Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -7, 48)
Recommendation: Kansas City -7 at 1.89
It’s been a strange season in Kansas City, and not in a good way– the Chiefs are 4-4 and have been a horrible team to back, covering the spread in just two of their eight games. That said, they’re only two games back of the division lead so everything is still in front of them, and the offense is still one of the most explosive units in the NFL, ranking 4th in the league in total yards and scoring 20 points or more in 7 of their 8 games thus far.
Defensively it’s been a different story, as the Chiefs rank near the bottom of the NFL in most major statistical categories and are actually surrendering more points on average (27.5 ppg) than they are scoring (26.0 ppg). This week, however, they caught a break– Aaron Rodgers has been diagnosed with COVID, and so second-year QB Jordan Love will be making his first career start on Sunday in Arrowhead Stadium. The Packers do have a couple of quality running backs, but Rodgers is the maestro of the offense, and without the threat of his downfield lasers it’s anybody’s guess as to whether the Green Bay RBs will continue to find room to operate. And if they do, this game will turn into a track meet, because Patrick Mahomes & Co. should find plenty of success against the mediocre Green Bay defense. Do you trust Jordan Love in a shootout situation, on the road, against Patrick Mahomes? It’s difficult to even ask that question with a straight face, isn’t it? I know the Chiefs have been terrific fade bait all season, but things are set up perfectly for them is week… I feel a blowout incoming.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -2.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: San Francisco -2.5 at 1.95
These teams met just three weeks ago, with Arizona pulling out a 17-10 home win. Heading into this game, however, the outlook for both teams is a little different– the Cardinals are banged-up, with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins both officially listed as questionable and expected to be game-time decisions, A.J. Green on the COVID list, and J.J. Watt now lost for the season. The Niners, meanwhile, will be healthier than they’ve been in some time, as All-Pro TE George Kittle will suit up for the first time since Week 4, QB Jimmy Garoppolo will be on the field after missing the first meeting between these teams, and kicker Robbie Gould, one of the best in the league at his position, will be back after missing the past four games with a strained groin.
This is a crucial stretch for San Francisco– a win over Chicago last week snapped a 4-game losing streak, but with the way the NFC standings look, and with an upcoming schedule that includes games against the Rams, Vikings, Bengals, and Titans, this is almost must-win territory for the Niners. But they’re at home, facing an opponent they know very well, and as mentioned, that opponent is not at full strength. Even if Murray is able to play, his mobility is sure to be limited due to his ankle injury, and he may not be as sharp as usual due to missing practice all week. If he’s without his top weapon in Hopkins, it’s going to be really tough sledding against a solid San Francisco D. It just feels like there’s a lot working against Arizona in this situation, while the Niners are desperate, healthier than they’ve been in awhile, and feeling the positive vibes after a much-needed victory. Don’t be surprised if this is the point when San Francisco’s season takes off– when the “also-ran” mask is discarded to reveal a legit playoff contender.
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Rams (LA -7, 52.5)
Recommendation: Tennessee +7 at 1.91
The Titans had their worst nightmare come true this week when Derrick Henry was diagnosed with a broken foot and ruled out for the remainder of the regular season, if not longer. Henry is the NFL’s best running back and the focal point of the Tennessee offense, and many now seem to be going on the assumption that the Titans are dead in the water without Henry. And maybe that’s true– time will tell, and “time” starts this week, when the Titans take a trip to the West Coast for a Sunday night showdown with one of the NFL’s best teams, the L.A. Rams. This is the first time all season that Tennessee has been an underdog of 7 points or more, which gives you an idea of how Henry’s loss is viewed by the NFL-adjacent community.
I’d be real careful about sleeping on these Titans, however. Many wrote them off after they were blown out by Arizona in Week 1, only to see them win 6 of their next 7 games to take control of the AFC South. Mike Vrabel is an excellent coach, and Ryan Tannehill has been the single most underrated player in the NFL since taking the reins in Tennessee. The running game won’t be the same without Henry, obviously, but the Titans will continue to pound away with Jeremy McNichols and the newly-signed Adrian Peterson, and Tannehill has two huge receivers with elite ball skills at his disposal in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. The L.A. defense has been vulnerable in the secondary this season, ranking 21st in the league against the pass, so Tannehill should have some opportunities downfield in this one. On the other side of the ball, Rams QB Matt Stafford was held out of practice this week due to a back injury, and the L.A. rushing attack has been less than stellar this season in averaging fewer than 4 yards per attempt. A quality team like Tennessee tends to rally after a major injury or setback, at least in the short term, and I expect the Titans to play well in this game. Seven points is just too many.
