OLYMPIC GOLF: Having golf as an Olympic sport still feels a bit strange and the system for qualification probably needs some tweaks, but it’s quite compelling to watch 60 top players from around the globe compete for something other than a few more zeros on their bank statements. National pride is a real thing, and some of these players have a chance to accomplish something that will change their legacies and earn them more respect and accolades in their home countries than winning an Open or a Masters ever could. This might turn out to be just another week of championship golf, with a Scheffler or McIlroy cruising to victory and a buzz no different from a typical Sunday on the PGA Tour, or it could turn into something magical and memorable. We shall see.
The course, Le Golf National in Paris, is a modern classic that has been granted significant exposure since opening in 1990, hosting the Open de France since 1991 and the Ryder Cup in 2018. Exactly half of the 60-man field has played the course in competition, so there won’t be many secrets out there, and though it won’t be quite as stringent a test as was Royal Troon a couple of weeks ago, Le Golf National is no pushover — it’s a demanding ball-strikers layout that rewards accuracy over distance and features a very difficult stretch of finishing holes, culminating in the monstrous par-4 18th, a hole that plays as a par-5 for the members and will produce many more bogeys than birdies this week. The bentgrass greens will be speedy and the green complexes are closer to what the players see week-in, week-out on the PGA Tour than what most of them just experienced for two weeks in Scotland. That said, the course is fairly flat and wind-exposed, and the punishing fescue rough does give it a links-type feel in spots. It’s a world-class layout and the ideal venue for an event of this nature — I don’t expect to hear a single complaint about the course this week.
The format is pretty straightforward and will feel very normal to all players familiar with the PGA Tour’s Signature Events: four rounds, stroke play, no cut. The gold is the goal, obviously, but finishing third in this tournament will feel quite different than finishing third in the Houston Open, as it comes with a spot on the podium and a medal for your country. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (5.5) heads BETDAQ’s Win Market, with countryman Xander Schauffele (8.3) right on his heels and the trio of Rory McIlroy (11.0), Collin Morikawa (12.0), and Jon Rahm (12.0) not far behind. Due to the nature of the field there are several long-odds options as well, and I’m talking seriously long odds — prices like 960.0 and 990.0 are currently available on the Exchange — but something tells me the favorites are going to live up to their billing this week and crowd the first page of the leaderboard. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jon Rahm (12.0)- After struggling in the year’s first two majors Rahm seems to have found his game, finishing 7th at the Open and then winning LIV UK last week, his fourth top-5 finish in his past six starts on the LIV circuit. Though he’s been mostly out of sight, out of mind for hardcore fans of the PGA and DP tours, Rahm has showed with his recent stretch of excellence that he’s still one of the top players in the game and probably the world’s best ball-striker this side of Scottie Scheffler. He’s always been a force at Le Golf National, finishing 5th and 10th in his only two Open de France appearances and beating Tiger Woods in singles at the 2018 Ryder Cup. He knows exactly what its going to take to get the job done this week and he’s been executing beautifully. I like his chances and the odds aren’t short enough to scare me off.
Tom Kim (31.0)- Kim caught the tough side of the draw and missed the cut at the Open, but he’s been playing very well this summer, finishing 26th or better in 6 of his past 9 PGA Tour starts, including a T4 at the Canadian Open, a runner-up at the Travelers, and a T15 at the Scottish Open a couple of weeks ago. He tends to struggle on courses that place a premium on length off the tee, but Le Golf National is not such a course, and when Kim is on a track where his accuracy and precision iron play can be showcased, he’s tough to beat (the Canadian Open and the Travelers are perfect examples). He’s spoken at length this week about how much this event means to him, not only for the opportunity to represent his country but also because an Olympic medal exempts South Korean athletes from a mandatory 2-year stint in the military. Recall when Sangmoon Bae was forced to put his career on hold for South Korean military service a few years back… he returned and has never been the same player. I’m not sure how much the possible service exemption will help to motivate Kim this week, but it’s worth noting that he played the Open de France last year in order to scout the course and wound up finishing 6th. He’s a live one for sure and a nice value at 31.0.
Byeong Hun An (70.0)- Like Kim, An’s future in the South Korean military could be at stake this week, and there’s a family pride element for him as well with both of his parents having medaled in table tennis at the 1988 Games. The reason I’m liking the looks of him as a 70/1 longshot, however, have little to do with those things and everything to do with the consistent, high-level golf he’s been playing in 2024. Though it might surprise those who haven’t been paying close attention, An is currently 12th on the FedEx Cup points list and has racked up five top-10s on the PGA Tour this season. He’s coming off a T13 at the Open, where he was one of the few players in the field to shoot under-par on the weekend, and he should have good familiarity with Le Golf National after coming over to play the Open de France in 2018 and finishing 20th. An is one of the world’s best iron players, ranking 5th on Tour in proximity of approach shots from over 100 yards, and his accuracy and precision should serve him well on a course that requires those attributes. He has a better chance this week than his price would indicate.
