OLYMPIC GOLF: While the rank and file of the PGA Tour toil away at the John Deere Classic, a tournament that has never really excited anyone aside from Steve Stricker and his immediate family, a select few have gathered in Rio for golf’s return to the Olympic Games. Sixty players in total will compete at the newly-built Olympic Golf Course, designed by Gil Hanse especially for this event.
Of course, much of the focus heading into these games has been on who isn’t playing, as six of the world’s top ten have elected to stay home due to the Zika virus and a host of other excuses. It’s still a world-class field, though, and the guys who made the trip have had plenty of positive things to say about the course. Considering it’s never hosted a tournament of any kind and now will be thrust into the international spotlight, Hanse’s layout will be one of the most compelling storylines this week.
Built on an old sand quarry and containing exotic animal species like capybara (large, snub-nosed rodents) and caiman (small, aggressive crocodiles), the Olympic Course features no trees or conventional rough and measures just 7,128 yards, making it relatively short by Tour standards. It’s been compared to courses in Australia’s Sandbelt and supposedly includes some links elements, so players who are comfortable with that style of golf should be looked at carefully. Reports indicate that the scores will be low if the weather cooperates, but the wide-open layout lends itself to strong winds so we don’t really know whether to expect a grind or a birdie-fest. After playing in the wind on Sunday Rickie Fowler determined that even par would be a good score, but Bubba Watson, playing in calm conditions two days later, seemed to think we’d see some fireworks. The finishing stretch promises some drama, with a drivable par-4 (no. 16), a 133-yard par-3 (no. 17), and a reachable par-5 (no. 18) providing ample chances for late birdies.
Henrik Stenson heads BETDAQ’s Win Market after a terrific stretch of golf that included the historic Open win and a near-miss at the PGA, but the unpredictability involved with a new venue and the general quirkiness of the event make it difficult for me to get too excited about a price like 6.4. A handful of guys with medium-short odds sit right behind Stenson, while the bottom of the market is populated by extreme longshots who normally don’t get to compete against the Stensons, Watsons, and Fowlers of the world. It would be a great story if someone like Rodolfo Cazaubon (890.0) finished the week with a gold medal hanging around his neck, but risking your hard-earned money on such an outcome is not advisable. Try these three instead:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Martin Kaymer (19.0)- Kaymer is now fully back to top form after a prolonged slump, collecting five top-15 finishes in his last seven worldwide starts, including a T7 at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. We certainly know what he’s capable of when he’s clicking on all cylinders– his 8-shot victory in the 2014 U.S. Open wasn’t that long ago, after all– and he’s definitely trending in that direction. Furthermore, Kaymer played well (T13) in last month’s Scottish Open held at Castle Stuart, another Gil Hanse design that Hanse himself has said shares a lot of characteristics with the Olympic Course. And Kaymer’s victory in the 2010 PGA Championship came at Whistling Straits, another treeless, windswept, links-style course. There’s a lot to like about the German this week.
Jhonattan Vegas (52.0)- Johnny Vegas is on a roll, and I’m not just talking about his win at the RBC Canadian Open three weeks ago: he’s collected four top-5 finishes on the PGA Tour this season and his 22nd-place showing at the PGA was highlighted by an impressive final-round 67. The 31-year old Venezuelan finally seems to be realizing his potential, and a gold medal performance in his native South America would presumably mean a lot to him. While this would certainly mark the biggest victory of Vegas’ career, he only has to beat 59 other guys, several of whom haven’t been able to attain status on the PGA or European tours. It can be done, and a price like 52.0 makes Johnny one of the best values on the board.
Alex Cejka (102.0)- Cejka has been around forever, making a comfortable living as a perennial also-ran. He’s been showing signs of a late-career resurgence, though, following up his 5th-place showing at the RBC Canadian Open with a T11 at last week’s Travelers Championship, when he was in the 60s all fours rounds. And remember– this guy can win. He’s won four times on the European Tour and once on the PGA Tour, so it’s not like he’ll be intimidated by the moment. Cejka is a consummate vet with experience playing all over the world, and his quality ball striking and piercing ball-flight have always served him well on windy, links-style layouts. Plus, the Olympic Course is a par-71 that features five par-3s, and Cejka is tied for third on the PGA Tour is Par-3 Scoring this year. Having an extra one certainly won’t hurt his chances. Can he make enough putts to win? I don’t have the answer, but at better than 100/1 I’m willing to pay to find out.
