The cream has indeed risen to the top at Whistling Straits, as a star-studded leaderboard should deliver us a very compelling Sunday of golf.
All eyes will be on Jordan Spieth as he looks to capture his third major of the year, but leader Jason Day just may be able to steal the spotlight and break through for his first victory at a major championship after knocking on the door several times. And don’t forget about Justin Rose, who is playing the best golf of his career at the moment and sits just one back of Spieth and three back of Day. Martin Kaymer, victorious the last time the PGA came to Whistling Straits, is also in the mix, as is South African Branden Grace. All five of those guys are listed at 18.5 or shorter on BETDAQ’s overall market while the man with the next-shortest odds, Dustin Johnson, is priced at 62.0, so we really are looking at a five-man race here. Day is the favorite at 2.76, but it would be awful tough to get me off of Spieth at 3.05. I mean, how can you doubt the kid after what we’ve seen over the past few months?
None of my three pre-tournament choices are in the mix, which is a pity, and it looks like I’m going to split my two Tournament Match Bets. That means if we’re going to turn a profit this week we’ll have to do it with these Sunday two-balls, one-round bets which are inherently more unpredictable than the tournament-long variety, but bets that we’ve had great luck with throughout this 2015 season. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling today:
Steve Stricker (2.26) vs. Webb Simpson (1.99)
Stricker only plays a partial schedule these days and this is his first major since The Masters, so it’s natural to look at the younger, more-active Simpson here. However, Wisconsin native Stricker has played Whistling Straits hundreds of times and he played much better yesterday than he did over the first two rounds before a couple of late bogies ruined the scorecard. Being that he doesn’t play too often anymore and this is effectively a home game for him, with friends and family in the gallery, I think this final round means a lot to Stricker. He’s got at least a coin-flipper’s chance against Simpson, making him a good value at the current price. Recommendation: Stricker at 2.26
Ernie Els (2.66) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (1.76)
Els has seen it all and done it all, of course, and there’s always a chance that he turns back the clock as he did yesterday, when his 3-under par 69 vaulted him into a tie for 24th. Rounds like that have become more of the exception than the norm for Els, however, as he hasn’t had a top-20 finish on the PGA Tour since March’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Matsuyama, on the other hand, literally never plays poorly, notching seven top-20 finishes in his last eight starts, a stretch which includes three major championships. Something crazy could always happen, but the smart money is with the better player here. Recommendation: Matsuyama at 1.76
George Coetzee (2.44) vs. Russell Henley (1.87)
Coetzee is a fine player who had a great stretch of golf earlier this year, picking up two victories and a 3rd-place finish in three starts on the European Tour (Tshwane, Trophee Hassan, Mauritius), but over the last few weeks he’s been positively awful, missing four straight cuts and finishing no better than 70th in his last seven events. Henley, meanwhile, has been on a tear since his missed cut at the U.S. Open and has demonstrated the ability to finish strong in a major, firing a final-round 69 at St. Andrews last month and breaking par on Sunday at The Masters as well. I like his chances against Coetzee today. Recommendation: Henley at 1.87
Tony Finau (2.5) vs. Martin Kaymer (1.9)
Look, Kaymer is obviously the more accomplished player here, and he’s at a place that has to be overflowing with good vibes after what went down in 2010. He’s played terribly this year, though, finishing in the top-30 just once in ten events. That’s why I recoil a bit when I see him priced as such a substantial favorite here, even if his opponent today, Finau, has very little major championship experience. What Finau does have is a golf swing that produces some serious power and a soft set of hands, attributes which have served him well in his rookie season on Tour, as he’s notched ten top-25 finishes. I know Sunday at a major can be a bit different, but I’ll take the friendly odds and the hotter player. Recommendation: Finau at 2.5
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