API: After an exciting finish in Palm Beach last week that saw the Bear Trap claim another victim in Shane Lowry, the PGA Tour’s Florida Swing rolls on to one of the most iconic events on the schedule, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a tournament that was truly the creation and triumph of its founder, The King.
When Arnie was still with us, he was an ever-present force during tournament week, riding all over the grounds, spending time in the announcer’s booth, and always greeting the champion on the 72nd green. His presence still looms large over the proceedings, and the venue this week, Bay Hill Club, was his baby, a course he purchased himself in the mid-70s and tinkered with for the remainder of his life. It’s now much more fearsome than it used to be, a 7,470-yard behemoth that features 84 bunkers and water hazards everywhere you turn. The fairways are narrow, the Bermuda rough is problematic, and the greens will be firm and fast. And though it’s not a bombers-only type of track, as last year’s champion Russell Henley proved quite conclusively, length off the tee provides a big advantage at Bay Hill, and if you look at the list of champions over the past 10 years, this is borne out. We’re looking for big boy ball-strikers this week, players who can dominate tee to green.
This is the third Signature Event of the year, and with the entirety of the top-20 in the latest World Golf Rankings expected to compete, it’s the strongest field we’ve seen since last year’s Open Championship. Should be a fun week… here are three names to consider:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tommy Fleetwood (25.0)- This seems like a pretty fair price for Fleetwood, a guy who has consistently demonstrated the ability to contend in the best fields and the biggest of spots. He’s been in fine form of late, finding the top-25 in 3 of his 4 worldwide starts this year, including a T4 at Pebble Beach a couple of weeks ago and a T7 at the Genesis last time out. He’s a tremendous ball-striker, ranking 5th on Tour in total strokes gained, and he excels on difficult, demanding tracks like Bay Hill. He’s come close at this tournament several times, with four top-11 finishes in the past decade, including a T3 in 2019, so he certainly knows the best way around the course and should enter this week with plenty of confidence in that regard. Fleetwood “broke the seal” at last year’s Tour Championship, earning his long overdue first PGA Tour victory, and I predict he has a couple of more trophies on his shelf by the end of ’26. He’s got a great chance this week.
Shane Lowry (46.0)- Sure, it all fell apart at the end last week, but Lowry played nearly 70 holes of tremendous golf prior to the unraveling, continuing a trend we’ve seen from him this season. He’s finished 26th or better in each of his five worldwide starts in 2026, with two top-3s and a T8 at Pebble Beach. While the secret to success has always been his ball-striking, which is still elite (12th on Tour in strokes gained on approach), the fact that he’s in the top-20 on Tour in strokes gained putting is what has carried him to great heights this season, and if Lowry keeps rolling it like this, he’s going to win and then win again… mark my words. And though the way last week ended had to be a bit of a gut punch, this guy is a tough customer mentally and I actually think the situation increases the chances of him playing well this week. And that’s before we even get to his record in this tournament, which includes a T7 last year and a T3 in 2024. Lowry is a great value here at a price like 46.0.
Sepp Straka (80.0)- When you have a field of this caliber, there are always guys who seem to slip through the cracks in the market and land at prices that seem almost too good to be true. Such is the case with Straka this week, a world-class player who is just two starts removed from a runner-up finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach, another Signature Event, and is coming off a 5th-place finish in this event last year. Like our other two selections this week, he is a guy who is known for his ball-striking and tee-to-green dominance, and he’s been up to his usual tricks this season, ranking 22nd on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, so his swing is in good shape. He also has a known affinity for Bermuda greens and does some of his best work in the Southeast U.S., meaning we’re just hitting the stretch of the season where Straka is really dangerous. He’s a no-brainer this week at nearly 80/1.
