ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL: Perhaps no man in the past century meant as much to the game of golf as Arnold Palmer, and the King’s legacy will be in the spotlight this week when the PGA Tour returns to his course, Bay Hill, to play his tournament, the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Arnie took a great personal interest in this tournament up until the end, and as a result it’s always drawn a strong field. This year is certainly no exception, as names like McIlroy, Stenson, Day, Matsuyama, and Fowler head BETDAQ’s Win Market. That being said, several prominent players– Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, and Phil Mickelson among them– have decided to stay home, which makes you wonder if the tournament will slowly lose its prominence without the presence of its namesake and patron. That’s a worry for another day, however, and it probably won’t be an issue anyway if the purse continues to grow– this year it’s a record $8.7 million.
Bay Hill is a familiar course to just about everyone in the field, having hosted this event since 1979. A typical Florida course, it features heavy bunkering, numerous water hazards that the players will be forced to challenge, and Bermuda grass from tee to green. It’s been renovated several times and the players have really eaten it up over the past couple of years, with Matt Every reaching 19-under in 2015 and Jason Day following with 17-under last year, a performance that was good enough for the victory but didn’t afford him a single shot of breathing room. So we can expect plenty of birdies this week, and it may be a good idea to avoid players who haven’t been able to string together two or three good rounds in a row lately.
Someone who might fit that description is the defending champion, Day, who is off to a slow start this year despite his considerable talents. He’s coming off a 64th-place showing at the Genesis Open in which he failed to break 70 in four consecutive rounds, and he only has one top-10 in his past seven starts. Nevertheless, he’s currently trading at a shortish 16.5, and Bay Hill does have a history of producing repeat champions, so if you want to back Day I’m not going to talk you out of it. I do believe there’s better value out there, however:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Hideki Matsuyama (17.5)- While McIlroy and Stenson rightly sit atop the market, I have trouble swallowing such short prices in such a strong field, especially when someone like Matsuyama lurks right behind at a much more attractive number. It’s only been a month since Matsuyama won in Phoenix, remember, and he’s only had two starts since then– the last one being a top-25 at the WGC-Mexico Championship that featured an impressive third-round 66. Long one of the world’s best ball-strikers, Matsuyama has really matured as an all-around player over the past year and has learned how to contend consistently, as evidenced by his recent run: three victories and two runner-up finishes in his last nine worldwide starts. He seems to really like it at Bay Hill, too, as he followed a T21 in 2015 with a 6th-place showing last year. He’s a blue-chip option this week and a fair value at the current price.
Tony Finau (54.0)- The big-hitting Finau doesn’t have much of a history in this tournament, missing the cut in 2015 and finishing an unremarkable 43rd last year, and for that reason he won’t be a very popular bet this week. But overlook him at your own peril: he’s coming off a 5th-place finish at Innsbrook last week that included a brilliant final-round 64, and that was his third top-10 (and second top-5) in his last seven starts. Plus, there’s reason to think he may prosper at Bay Hill– it’s a course that prioritizes par-5 scoring, which plays right into Finau’s hands, and he generally plays his best golf on Bermuda. It’s also worth noting that he closed with a 67 last year, easily his best score in six competitive rounds on the course and possibly a small breakthrough. And he came into this event last year on the heels of four straight missed cuts, so his 43rd-place showing doesn’t seem too bad in that context. All things considered, I think Finau is worth the risk here.
Billy Horschel (110.0)- A missed cut last week has surely cooled any enthusiasm that people had for Horschel, but it’s worth remembering that he tied for 4th at the Honda Classic just three weeks ago, so we know his game isn’t too far off. A native of central Florida who played collegiately in the state and still resides there, Horschel will feel right at home at Bay Hill, a course he’s played dozens (if not hundreds) of times. He’s never missed a cut in four career appearances at this event, and his T20 last year would’ve been considerably better had it not been for a third-round 74. We know that Horschel can play with anybody when he gets it going, and he’s also proven that he has a nose for the finish line when he’s in contention on Sunday. At better than 100/1, he’s certainly worth a bet.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Rickie Fowler (1.91) vs. Justin Rose (1.91)
Rose has a nice history in this tournament that includes a runner-up finish, and the fact that he’s an Orlando resident means this is a home game of sorts for him. But he may be starting to cool off a bit, finishing outside the top-35 in two of his past three events and failing to break 70 in four consecutive rounds in Mexico in his last start. Fowler, meanwhile, finished 16th in Mexico after breaking 70 three times, and prior to that he notched a win at the Honda Classic and a 4th-place finish in Phoenix. He’s had success at Bay Hill, too, making 4 cuts in five career appearances and finishing third in 2013. Recommendation: Fowler at 1.91
Charles Schwartzel (1.91) vs. Francesco Molinari (1.91)
Schwartzel appears to be waking from his slumber, as he followed back-to-back missed cuts in February with a T38 in Mexico and then a tasty 6th-place showing at the Valspar last week. Molinari, however, has been playing well for quite a while, finding the top-20 in four of his past five starts and shooting par or better in 23 of his past 26 competitive rounds. Always straight off the tee and solid with his irons, Molinari has really enjoyed Bay Hill, finishing 34th or better in each of his past four appearances and logging two top-10s. Don’t be surprised if he spends a lot of time on the first page of the leaderboard this week. Recommendation: Molinari at 1.91
