AT&T BYRON NELSON: The PGA Tour rolls into Dallas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson, a tournament that’s steeped in history and tradition. Mr. Nelson himself won the first edition of this event way back in 1944, and the roll call of past champions reads like a Who’s Who of golf’s all-time greats: Snead, Hogan, Nicklaus, Watson, Floyd, Crenshaw, Couples, Woods, Els, Mickelson, Scott, Day… the list goes on. This may not be the most popular stop on Tour these days– indeed, only two of the world’s top-10 players are here this week– but it’s still a prestigious event, and the $7.2 million purse is certainly nothing to sniff at.

Steven Bowditch triumphed last year, surviving torrential rains that forced TPC Four Seasons to be played as a Par 69 for the final three rounds. Bowditch is currently in the midst of a horrendous slump, though, missing the cut in six of his last seven starts and failing to break 80 in eight of his last 16 competitive rounds (!), so even a price like 335.0 isn’t enough to convince me to take the plunge. At the top of the market we have Jordan Spieth (8.8), who may or may not be recovered from his meltdown at Augusta (if last week is any indication, I’d lean towards not), and Dustin Johnson (9.8), who has yet to win this season but is still ranked 8th in the world. Both of those guys are priced a little short for my liking, though I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if one of them was able to rise to the top of this watered-down field.

We’ve been on a bit of a cold streak since hitting on Danny Willett at The Masters, and the fact that this tournament has produced longshot winners in each of the past three years doesn’t do much for my confidence and certitude. That being said, I like the look of these three guys…

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Matt Kuchar (26.0)- Kuchar has quietly rounded into form over the past couple of months, with his third-place showing in last week’s Players Championship giving him four top-11 finishes in his last seven starts. And while he’s never won this event, TPC Four Seasons is a regular stop for him and he’s had his fair share of success here, notching a pair of top-10s and another top-20 in the past decade. I’ll happily take my chances on a guy who is playing his best golf of the season and is heading to a course where he obviously feels comfortable, especially when that guy is priced as reasonably as Kuchar is here.

Ryan Palmer (46.0)- A native Texan, Palmer always seems to play well in his home state, most recently finishing fourth at the Valero Texas Open last month. Of course, he seems to be playing well pretty much everywhere right now, as he’s made 12 consecutive cuts and is coming off a top-25 at the Players Championship– a performance that would’ve been even better had it not been for a poor third round. Most importantly, he absolutely loves it at TPC Four Seasons, notching top-10 finishes here in three of his past five starts and a top-25 in one of the others. Palmer doesn’t win much, but he was the runner-up in this tournament back in 2011, so if it’s ever going to happen this may be the week. At a price like 46.0, I’m willing to pay to find out.

Bryce Molder (92.0)- Molder’s current stretch of good golf started with a 6th-place finish at Harbour Town last month, and he’s followed that up with an 8th-place showing in New Orleans and a T12 at The Players last week. If it’s not the best stretch of golf of the 37-year old’s professional career, it’s right up there. While he doesn’t have a spectacular record in this event, he does have a pair of top-25s on the resume, including a T22 last year. And Molder plays his best on short, tight, Bermuda-covered courses, so he’ll be right in his comfort zone this week. It’s not a name that’s on the tip of everyone’s tongue, but this is a guy who’s playing at a very high level right now and yet is still saddled with ridiculously long odds. All things considered, Molder may be my favorite bet on the board.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Marc Leishman (1.91) vs. Brooks Koepka (1.91)

Both of these guys have been struggling a bit lately, as Koepka has missed two of his past four cuts while Leishman has only notched one top-20 in his past five starts. The difference here is past record in this event: Leishman absolutely loves it at TPC Four Seasons, logging five top-10s in seven starts and finishing third twice. Koepka, meanwhile, has a missed cut and a T16 in two career appearances. Recommendation: Leishman at 1.91

Jordan Spieth (1.8) vs. Dustin Johnson (2.0)

I don’t think anyone would be floored if Spieth blitzed the field this week and won going away. That being said, he responded to the heartbreak at Augusta with a missed cut at The Players last week, and he hasn’t logged a top-25 in this event since he was a high schooler. Johnson, on the other hand, has four top-10s in six starts here, and his 28th-place finish at The Players last week snapped a streak of three straight top-5s. Recommendation: Johnson at 2.0