BLACK DESERT: The PGA Tour makes its first stop in the great state of Utah in over 60 years this week for the Black Desert Championship, a new event that will be part of the Fall Series for at least the next four years and should provide exposure to a unique corner of the country that is more known for its scenery than championship golf.
Located right outside of Zion National Park, where the desert meets the mountains in spectacular fashion, the Tom Weiskopf-designed Black Desert Golf Course has been a fixture in travel golf magazines for the past 18 months. One look at the place and it’s easy to see why: the desert, the spectacular mountain vistas in the background, and the black basalt rock formations that dot the landscape combine to give the grounds a sort of otherworldly vibe — like golf on Mars or something. Throw in the altitude and the corresponding thin air, which will make the ball fly 10-15% further than usual, and you’ve got a truly unique challenge for those teeing it up this week, most of whom have never seen the course before given that it was just opened in early 2023.
Measuring 7,371 yards from all the way back but set to play much shorter due to the altitude, Black Desert is a resort course featuring wide fairways and large, undulating bentgrass greens. There are some blind shots, which is unusual for a PGA Tour course, and offline shots could be penalized by the unpredictable desert landscape and rock formations, but it doesn’t feel like this is going to be a particularly stiff challenge by Tour standards. I’m expecting a birdie-fest with a winning score in the 25 to 30-under range, so we should be on the lookout for in-form players who are accustomed to making birdies in bunches and generally thrive in green-light, no-stress environments. I would also favor the longer players, as it doesn’t seem like there will be much stopping guys from blasting driver all over the course. There should be plenty of highlights and action this week, for sure.
Keith Mitchell currently heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 23.0, which speaks to the lack of top-tier talent in the field. Nevertheless, there’s a lot on the line and the competition will be fierce. If we place our bets correctly, this Sunday will be every bit as exciting as Tiger’s last green jacket. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Patrick Fishburn (37.0)- After a difficult start to his rookie season that included 7 missed cuts in his first 8 starts, Fishburn found his sea legs, settled in and began playing some really good golf over the summer, and he’s kept the momentum rolling here in the Fall Series. He’s now registered four top-15 finishes in his past six starts, including a solo 3rd at the Procore Championship two starts ago. He’s finished double-digits under par in 4 of his last 5 events, so he’s not afraid to go low, and he’s long off the tee, averaging over 308 yards per drive, so he definitely checks a couple of boxes we’re looking for this week. His length allows him to dominate the par-5s, as he currently ranks 3rd on Tour in par-5 scoring, and Black Desert has four par-5s, giving him plenty of opportunity. Given his current form and stylistic fit, Fishburn seems like a good bet this week at a price like 37.0.
Daniel Berger (47.0)- An injury 18 months ago led to a loss of confidence for Berger, and the result was a stretch of poor play that seemed incomprehensible to those who had witnessed his rise as one of the Tour’s top young players over the past few years. Here is a guy who had won 4 times before the age of 30 and contended in numerous majors missing cuts at lower-rung events like the John Deere and Rocket Mortgage. We know great golf is still in there somewhere, though, and I, for one, expect Berger to return to form in the coming months. We may have seen the first signs of it last week, when after nearly a month off he opened with back-to-back 65s at the Sanderson Farms Championship and went on to finish 7th, his first top-10 of 2024. Could this be the spark that ignites the fire? He’s got a perfect opportunity to keep it rolling this week: friendly course, no-name field, low stress environment. If Berger gets hot he could leave the field in the dust, so I’m happy to take a chance on him at 47.0.
Henrik Norlander (96.0)- A 37-year-old journeyman who has played all over the world, Norlander is still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, and he might just have the perfect storm of form, field, and venue to get the job done this week. He’s always played his best golf in the Western part of the U.S. and has found particular success playing at high altitude, most recently finishing 11th in July’s Barracuda Championship, held at the Tahoe Mountain Club in Nevada, not too far from Black Desert. Norlander has been playing well for the past couple of months, finishing 28th or better in 4 of his past 6 starts, with a pair of top-15s in that span. He seems primed for a good week here and strikes me as an excellent value at nearly 100/1.
