BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP: The PGA Tour’s globetrotting fall series continues this week in tropical Bermuda, where the smallest and strangest field anyone can remember will tee it up in the third edition of the Bermuda Championship.
This tournament was upgraded to a “full field” event after the cancellation of the HSBC Champions, which means there are 500 FedExCup points at stake for the winner in addition to a Masters invite, a 2-year PGA Tour exemption, and the $1.17 million first prize. In the ultimate irony, however, this “full field” event has been unable to fill its 132-man field despite utilizing the entire 357-man priority list. That’s right, ghosts from the past like Frank Lickliter, Tommy Armour III, Jonathan Kaye, and Will MacKenzie were all invited but declined, while throwback names like Heath Slocum, Ted Purdy, Ricky Barnes, and John Merrick will be playing their first Tour event in many years.
Why has the PGA Tour been unable to fill a field in lovely Bermuda, of all places? It’s quite simple: Bermuda requires proof of COVID vaccination or a 14-day quarantine in order to enter the country. Vaccination is not required for PGA Tour players, and after this week Jay Monahan’s claim of “over 70%” of Tour players having been vaccinated appears very dubious.
For those that have taken the jab, however, a significant opportunity awaits. This is an objectively weak field, so if you’re someone like Daniel Chopra or Kevin Stadler and you want to re-boot your career, you’ll never have a better chance.
There’s really only one course on the island of Bermuda worthy of hosting a PGA Tour event: the Robert Trent Jones-designed Port Royal Golf Club was the site of the World Series of Golf from 2009-2014, and it’s the only venue this tournament has known. A par-71 that measures just 6,828 yards, it’s quite short by Tour standards, but the fairways are narrow, the greens are small, and the wind absolutely whips at times, which can make things quite tricky. Last year, for instance, the cut was over-par and wind specialist Brian Gay prevailed at 15-under, but in 2019, when conditions were calmer, the players tore the place to shreds and it took 24-under to win. Based on the forecast for this week it looks like Thursday might be the toughest day, as 25 mph winds are predicted for the afternoon before things calm down a bit heading into the weekend.
Matt Fitzpatrick decided that a late October week in Bermuda didn’t sound so bad, and he heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 15.5. Other top-of-the-market names include Christian Bezuidenhout (21.0), Patrick Reed (25.0), and Mito Pereira (27.0), but this feels like a week for the underdog, doesn’t it? Will some old vet like Jason Bohn (640.0) or D.A. Points (640.0) wake up the echoes and make this a week to remember? It would be fun if it happened, for sure. Here are three names that I think may be worth a look:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Hayden Buckley (40.0)- The PGA Tour’s Fall Series is a great time for young players to make a name for themselves, and Korn Ferry grad Buckley has been doing just that over the past month, finding the top-10 in his last two starts– a T4 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and a T8 at the Shriners. He’s been striking the ball beautifully, ranking 3rd in GIR percentage and 12th in strokes gained tee-to-green in this young season, so he should be well-prepared for a layout like Port Royal, where small targets abound and precision iron play is required. This is a comfortable situation for a guy like Buckley– he’s 37-under is his last eight competitive rounds, and this week there will be no big names, large galleries, or deafening roars to take him out of his rhythm. I’m happy to take a chance on him at a price like 40.0.
Hank Lebioda (50.0)- Though Lebioda has missed the cut in his last two starts, he was under-par on both occasions and has now shot par or better in 17 of his past 19 competitive rounds, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the state of his game. After all, he’s only five starts removed from the best stretch of his career, when he reeled off three consecutive top-10 finishes at the Travelers (T5), the Rocket Mortgage (T4), and the John Deere Classic (T8). And now he comes to a place that has treated him quite well over the past two years– Port Royal. Lebioda finished third in this event in 2019, still his best result on the PGA Tour, and he followed that up with a T16 last year. Iron play is the strength of his game, and he obviously feels very comfortable with the small targets at Port Royal. He’s as close as you’ll come this week to finding a player that fits the conventional formula– good course history, good current form, and a reasonable price.
Brian Gay (148.0)- It would be weird if Brian Gay were to win this week. But hey– it was super-weird that he finished third here in 2019, and even weirder that he managed to win last year. Gay has long been one of the shortest guys on Tour, and at 49 years old he definitely isn’t getting any longer, so he’s simply unable to compete most weeks, as his 18 missed cuts out of 27 starts last year would attest. But put him on a course like the 6,800-yard Port Royal, and apparently he’s nearly unbeatable. I mean, in his last two appearances here he’s a combined 33-under and only two guys– total– have managed to beat him. That alone would make him worth a bet at 148.0, but he also happened to make the cut at the Shriners last time out, which is notable because prior to his victory last year he had missed four consecutive cuts. In other words, he’s been awfully tough to beat at Port Royal and he may be in better form now than in years past. Might as well give him a shot.
