CAREERBUILDER CHALLENGE: The PGA Tour returns to the mainland this week for the CareerBuilder Challenge, which for decades was known as the Bob Hope Classic. Though Mr. Hope is no longer around and the tournament is now a conventional four-rounder instead of a five-round marathon, it’s still a Pro-Am for three days and thus retains some of the laid-back Palm Springs vibe that was its trademark back when the Arnold Palmers of the world were entertaining the galleries.
This event has bounced around the Palm Springs/Palm Desert area over the years, with ten different courses being utilized since 2005. A three-course rotation is generally favored, and this year, for the third consecutive year, it’ll be the Tournament and Stadium courses at PGA West plus La Quinta Country Club, with the players alternating courses over the first three rounds– the Pro-Am portion– before all the action moves to PGA West Stadium on Sunday.
The Stadium is the toughest of the bunch– it’s a Pete Dye design that, like most Dye designs, is very penal in spots, and if the wind starts blowing it can be quite intimidating off the tee. But the other two tracks are relatively docile, and with the friendly pro-am pin positions the scores are always low– last year’s champion, Hudson Swafford, finished at 20-under, and that was the highest winning score this event has seen since 2007.
Jon Rahm heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 10.5, and though that price seems a little short for a guy who has only played one event in the past two months and doesn’t have much experience at this event, finishing 34th on debut last year, Rahm is a unique talent, and his one recent start was a good one, as he finished runner-up to Dustin Johnson at Kapalua. I certainly wouldn’t blame you if you threw a little cash his way– regular readers of this column know that I have backed Rahm with some frequency over the past year– but I think I’ll go in a different direction this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Webb Simpson (23.0)– Simpson has been playing some terrific golf over the past few months, closing out 2017 with top-20 finishes in six of his final seven events. And if last week is any indication, his form seems to have carried over to the new year, as he shot 63-65 over the weekend at Waialae to finish 4th, missing out on a playoff by just two shots. Always a great ball-striker, Simpson initially struggled with the forced transition from “anchoring” style to conventional-style putting, but he looks to have found his touch on the greens again and is definitely a player to watch over the coming weeks and months. He’s made three straight cuts at this event, finding the top-25 twice, and he has a great history out West, winning the U.S. Open at the Olympic Club in 2012 and more recently finishing runner-up at the Phoenix Open last year. He’s one of the clear-cut favorites this week and is worth a bet at better than 20/1.
Brendan Steele (47.0)– A California native who always seems to play his best golf on the West Coast, Steele is coming off the most successful year of his career and is off to a fast start this season after winning one of the PGA Tour’s “wraparound” events, October’s Safeway Open. He followed that up with a T13 at the CIMB Classic, and though he’s only teed it up once over the past two months, he’s now returning home– less than an hour’s drive from where he grew up– to play three courses that he knows as well as anyone in the field. And he’s had great success in this tournament in recent years, finishing 6th last year and runner-up in 2015, so you’d have to think his confidence and comfort level are sky-high heading into the week. I’m fairly enthusiastic about Steele at a price like 47.0.
Bill Haas (62.0)- Haas missed the cut in last week’s Sony Open after shooting 71-70, but there was nothing particularly alarming about his performance and, considering it was his first time teeing it up in competition in nearly two months, it’s reasonable to think that he might’ve just knocked some rust off. He now returns to the tournament that, without question, has treated him better than any other in his decade-plus on Tour: Haas has won this event twice (2010, 2015), added a runner up finish (2011), and is the tournament’s all-time leading money winner by a comfortable margin. He’s a great ball-striker, especially with the longer clubs, he obviously knows and likes the greens at PGA West, and he’s won big-time tournaments with elite fields, so there isn’t a concern of him folding up if he’s in contention on Sunday. At better than 60/1, Haas may be the best value on the board this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Kevin Kisner (1.89) vs. Patrick Reed (1.89)
Reed won this event in 2014 and finished 12th last year, so he obviously knows his way around PGA West and will be full of confidence. But he hasn’t competed since the Hero World Challenge and in the meantime he and his wife welcomed a child into the world, so it remains to be seen just how focused and ready he’ll be this week. Kisner, on the other hand, has been playing regularly, and he was solid at the Sony Open last week, breaking 70 in three of the four rounds and finishing 25th. His record in this event doesn’t compare to Reed’s, but he did find the top-25 last year, so it’s not like he’ll be wading into unfamiliar waters this week. I just feel like Kisner is probably sharper and more tournament-ready right now, which gives him an edge over a potentially rusty Reed. Recommendation: Kisner at 1.89
Bud Cauley (1.89) vs. Austin Cook (1.89)
Cauley has an excellent record in this event, finishing 3rd here last year and 14th in 2016, while Cook will be making his debut appearance. But Cauley will be coming back from an extended break– he hasn’t played since November’s RSM Classic, a tournament that Cook happened to win. While Cauley’s been resting, Cook’s impressive play has continued, as he closed with 65-66 at last week’s Sony Open to sneak into the top-20. It’s tempting to go with the guy who has positive course history over a debutant with only 15 career PGA Tour starts under his belt, but I think I’ll take my chances with the player who has a hot putter and doesn’t have to knock off any offseason rust. Recommendation: Cook at 1.89
