COGNIZANT: The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing kicks off this week with an old tournament sporting a new name, as Honda has pulled back from its longstanding partnership with the Tour and therefore the Honda Classic is now the Cognizant Classic.
This event used to be a major part of the early-season schedule and would routinely attract top-notch fields, but things have changed on that front over the past few years and the big names mostly stay away now. One notable exception is World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, who will be making his first appearance here since 2018 as he looks to add a couple more tournaments to his schedule in preparation for Augusta. McIlroy is a former champion, having won here back in 2012, and is the clear favorite this week on the BETDAQ exchange, where he’s currently trading at 9.5.
One thing we know about this week, and one thing that sets this event apart from some others on the schedule, is that the players will be challenged. The Champion Course at PGA National is no pushover– Chris Kirk’s 14-under winning score last year was the lowest the tournament has seen since 2005, and in 7 of the past 10 years not a single player has finished the week double-digits under par. A par-70 that plays longer than its 7,125 yards, the course is tight off the tee, with water everywhere you turn and firm Bermuda greens that are heavily bunkered. And then there’s the infamous Bear Trap, holes 15, 16, and 17, two treacherous par-3s sandwiched around a difficult par-4. When the wind is right, it can be among the most challenging 3-hole stretches in golf and has ruined many a player’s round and tournament. This is one of the few non-majors that regularly features an over-par cut.
Aside from McIlroy the field is a little light on star power, with names like Cameron Young (26.0), Eric Cole (29.0), and Russell Henley (31.0) joining Rory atop the market. We’ve seen triple-digit longshots take home the hardware here in 3 of the past 5 years, however, so maybe it’s not the top of the market that we should be paying so much attention to. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Byeong Hun An (37.0)- After a prolonged slump that saw him lose his PGA Tour status and spend some time on the Korn Ferry Tour, An has come back strong and is playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s made five starts in 2024 and has made all five cuts, with a runner-up finish at the Sony, a T4 at the Sentry, and a T16 at the Genesis last time out. He’s ball-striking has been tremendous, particularly off the tee, where he ranks 1st on Tour in Total Driving Efficiency. That should serve him well at a demanding track like PGA National, and indeed he has a nice record here, finding the top-5 twice since 2018 and finishing T21 last year. Given his form, steady nature, and history at this event, I think we can rely on An putting himself in position to succeed this week. The question with him has always been the putter, a club that has deserted him at times throughout his career. He’s been rolling it great, though, ranking 22nd on Tour in putting average so far this season, and if he can keep that up the wins will surely follow. He’s got a great shot this week and is worth a bet at a price like 37.0.
Denny McCarthy (68.0)- From Byeong Hun An to Denny McCarthy… from someone who’s putting has been so bad at times that he’s earned the nickname Blind Benny to a guy who has consistently rolled the rock better than anyone in the world over the past few years. If you could blend these two into one golfer, he would shatter all of Jack and Tiger’s records. For now, though, we just need one of them to win this week’s Cognizant Classic, and McCarthy has a real chance in his own right. He’s playing well at the moment, finishing 26th or better in 3 of his past 4 starts, and his history at this tournament includes a 3rd-place finish in 2021, so he definitely knows his way around the course. McCarthy putts well everywhere but is especially dangerous on Bermuda greens, making him one to watch not only this week but throughout the Florida Swing. I’m happy to take my chances at nearly 70/1.
Akshay Bhatia (108.0)- As mentioned, this tournament is won by long-odds types more often than not in recent years, so I’d pay particular attention to the live ones hovering around the triple-digit mark. When I say “live” I mean someone who is showing recent signs of life on the course, and one man who definitely qualifies is Bhatia, the 22-year-old ex-junior phenom who Monday qualified his way into several events last year before breaking through by winning the Barracuda Championship. He started off 2024 with a flourish, posting top-15 finishes in 3 of 4 starts, and he’s taken the last couple of weeks off so he should be fresh and ready for this springtime stretch. He knows the course, having made the cut here last year in his first career appearance, and he’s been averaging a whopping 4.94 birdies per round this season, so he’ll be bringing plenty of game. Bhatia is a terrific value at this kind of price.
