DEAN & DELUCA INVITATIONAL: For over 70 years the PGA Tour has made an annual stop at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, and the place affectionately known as Hogan’s Alley holds up just as well today as it did when the Iceman himself was stalking the fairways. Hogan’s five wins at Colonial is a mark that will probably never be equalled (nobody else has more than two), and for that he’ll forever be associated with this event, which is now known as the Dean & Deluca Invitational.
Colonial is a classic, tree-lined layout that is fairly short by modern standards but features tight fairways and small, tricky greens. It’s a favorite among the players and for that reason this event usually draws a strong field, so it’s no surprise that guys like Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Jon Rahm, and Phil Mickelson have decided to tee it up this week. Spieth is the defending champion and he’s surely hungry for success after back-to-back missed cuts, but he’s been undeniably shaky lately, struggling to find fairways, failing to make the 10-20 foot putts that he normally feasts on, and frequently showing visible signs of frustration while on the course. He certainly hasn’t been looking like the type of player you’d be eager to back, and that’s especially true at a price like 12.0, which is where he currently sits atop BETDAQ’s Win Market.
Besides, there are plenty of options this week– in-form players who have experienced success at Colonial before and are priced much more attractively than Spieth. And then there’s Jon Rahm, who has no course history, has been a pro for less than a year, is coming off a third-round 82 in his last start, and yet is still trading at a mere 14.0, right behind Spieth. I guess the market has officially caught on… the “knowing” was fun while it lasted.
Here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ryan Palmer (43.0)- If there’s one thing that even the casual fan knows about Palmer, it’s that he always plays well in his home state of Texas. And while none of his three career PGA Tour victories have come in the Lone Star State, it’s true that Palmer has been a veritable cash machine in Texas-based events throughout his career, which you would expect from a guy whose go-to shot is a low draw that holds up beautifully in windy conditions. His T27 at last week’s Byron Nelson was slightly below his Home State standard, but he’s just two starts removed from a 6th-place finish at the Valero Texas Open, and that was preceded by an 11th-place showing at the RBC Heritage. Palmer has always loved Colonial– and he should, considering he’s a DUES-PAYING MEMBER there and has surely played the course hundreds of times– but last year marked the first time in 13 career appearances at this tournament that he’s broken 70 in every round. He went on to finish 3rd, his third top-5 here, and there’s absolutely no reason to think he won’t contend again this week. A great value at better than 40/1.
Pat Perez (45.0)- You might be inclined to say that Perez is in the midst of a career renaissance, but the term “renaissance” usually implies some sort of return to or rediscovery of past greatness, and considering Perez is clearly playing the best golf of his life at age 41, I’m not sure the term necessarily applies in this case. “Late bloomer” might be more accurate, for if Perez continues to play like he has this season then the best is yet to come for him. He’s made the cut in every tournament he’s played this year, all 14 of them, and he has nine top-30 finishes and four top-5s to go along with his win at the OHL Classic. He finished 22nd at The Players in his last start, a performance that would’ve been considerably better had it not been for a final-round 76, and prior to that he was runner-up at the Wells Fargo. So he carries a lot of momentum into this week, and Colonial is one of his favorite stops on Tour, as he’s recorded a pair of top-5s and four top-10s in this tournament in 9 career appearances. He should be backed enthusiastically at the current price.
Steve Stricker (90.0)- Stricker may be part-timing it on the Champions Tour these days, but every time he tees it up with the young guys he shows that he still has what it takes to succeed on any tour. You get him on a course where length off the tee is not a necessity but accuracy and great putting are required, and he’s a threat to win. Period. Well, it just so happens that Colonial is just such a course, and it’s a place where Stricker has plenty of good memories after winning this tournament in 2009. He’s only played it three times since then but has made the cut each time, including last year, and it’s been a while since he’s had a stretch like he’s had over the past 8 weeks, with four top-16 finishes, including two top-3s, in his last five starts (three of those came on the Champions Tour, true, but the other one was at the Masters). All things considered, it’s mildly shocking that Stricker is currently trading at 90.0, and at that price I’d rate him the best value on the board.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Marc Leishman (1.91) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.91)
Mickelson is a two-time champion of this event and I’m sure he made the tournament organizers very happy when he announced that he would play after a 7-year absence. He’s certainly still capable of creating some magic at Colonial, but he’s had a very quiet year, logging just one top-10 in his last ten starts, and, most alarmingly, he’s only broken 70 once in his last 17 tournament rounds. That doesn’t even seem possible for a player like Mickelson, but it’s very real and it’s ongoing. The low numbers just haven’t been there for Lefty. Leishman, meanwhile, is coming off a top-15 in last week’s Byron Nelson, and he’s only four starts removed from his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Plus, he has a nice record in this event, going 6-for-6 in cuts made and finding the top-25 twice, including last year, when he tied for 13th. Recommendation: Leishman at 1.91
Jason Dufner (1.91) vs. Paul Casey (1.91)
Casey is in the midst of a terrific run, with top-25 finishes in each of his last four starts and six of his last seven. He ranks top-10 on Tour in both Greens and Regulation and scrambling, so it makes you wonder how he ever makes a bogey. He also has a nice record in this event, with two top-15s in five career appearances. All that being said, he’ll need his best to beat Dufner this week. You always hear the term horses for courses, and with two runner-up finishes in his last five trips to Colonial to go along with a T6 last year, Dufenr is certainly a horse for this course. And while he may not be able to match Casey’s impressive streak of top-25s, he did finish 13th last week and has registered five top-15s in his past eight starts, so it’s not like he’s been chopping it. Recommendation: Dufner at 1.91
