DELL TECHNOLOGIES CHAMPIONSHIP: Formerly known as the Deutsche Bank Championship, the newly-christened Dell Technologies Championship will once again serve as the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, meaning the field is limited to the top 100 players in the current FedEx Cup standings. So we get a championship-quality field once again, and we can only hope that things turn out like they did last week, when Dustin Johnson outdueled Jordan Spieth down the stretch to win The Northern Trust in a playoff (what about the drive DJ hit on the playoff hole?! How many guys alive can hit that shot?).
And I’m not just saying that because it was a thrilling finish, though it was– it’s because Johnson’s victory snapped a cold streak for us that dated back to Brian Harman’s win at the Wells Fargo Championship in May. While the relatively short odds muted the celebration somewhat, it was still nice to get back on the board with our ninth winner since the beginning of last season.
The quirkiest feature of this week’s event is the schedule itself: the powers that be have decided to capitalize on Monday’s Labor Day holiday by making this a Friday to Monday tournament, the only one of its kind on the PGA Tour. That should give the final round some extra eyeballs, and with the NFL starting up next week, the Tour needs all the eyeballs it can get right now.
The Arnold Palmer-designed TPC Boston will serve as the host venue once again, just as it has since this tournament’s inception in 2003. At over 7,300 yards it certainly isn’t short, but it’s not a “bombers only” track where length off the tee is a prerequisite for success, and it has a good mixture of holes, with some obvious birdie opportunities, some really tough ones, and a few risk/reward types that make things exciting. The smallish bentgrass greens are among the quickest on Tour, and the lush primary rough provides plenty of motivation to hit it in the fairway. It’s a course that has drawn rave reviews from the players– challenging yet fair, and always in pristine condition.
The two participants in last week’s playoff head BETDAQ’s Win Market this week, and all things considered it seems pretty cut-and-dry that Spieth and Johnson are the two best players in the world right now. DJ is currently trading at 8.2, Spieth’s at 9.6 and the next closest player is Jason Day at 17.0, so there are two clear favorites this week. But as is always the case in a field of this caliber, there’s plenty of value to be found a little further down the board, and we’ve settled on three players who offer the maximum bang for the buck:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jon Rahm (21.0)- As usual, Rahm enters this week at a supposed disadvantage since he’s never played TPC Boston in competition while most of his competitors have. But, usually, he beats nearly all of them anyway. Anyone who thought he was slipping into a bit of a late-season funk was hit with a cold dose of reality last week, as Rahm tied for third after shooting 68 or better in all four rounds (the only player in the field to do so). We’ve seen his temper get the best of him from time to time, but TPC Boston is not the type of overly-strenuous course that frays the nerves, so I think he’ll be alright. There’s enough room for him to use the the driver liberally, which he enjoys, and his superior iron play should put him at a clear advantage on a course where the small, knobby greens are surrounded by some fairly penal rough. I believe Rahm is one of the top five players in the field this week, which makes him a worthwhile bet at a price like 21.0.
Adam Scott (40.0)- Scott hasn’t been playing much lately on account of his wife giving birth to a son, so I don’t expect him to be a popular pick this week. He should be clear-minded and in good spirits, however, and not just because of the birth of little Byron (perfect name, right?)– TPC Boston has long been one of Scott’s favorite courses on Tour, as he’s logged six top-10s in this event in 11 career appearances, including a win in 2003 and a runner-up in 2004. His success here is not just limited to a decade ago, either, as he finished solo 4th last year after a final-round 65. And it’s not like Scott has been out for weeks– he made the cut at the PGA, and the week prior he finished 13th at the WGC-Bridgestone. This guy is an experienced vet whose ball-striking is as consistent as anyone in the world, and he’s a threat to win anytime the putts start falling. I’m happy to back him this week at a course he usually eats alive.
Keegan Bradley (90.0)- I don’t back Bradley often; as a matter of fact, this is the first time I remember backing him in a couple of years. He went through an extended rough patch after a brief period of success, and the ban on anchored putters certainly didn’t do him any favors. He’s been coming around, though, and this year he’s been striking it beautifully, as evidenced by his current position atop the PGA Tour’s Total Driving rankings. He’s now made 8 consecutive cuts, and though he’s only found the top-10 twice in that span, it’s clear that his game is moving in the right direction. He seems more relaxed and confident on the course now, and he should get a boost in that area this week when he returns to TPC Boston, a place he knows well. Not only has Bradley played well in this tournament, logging four top-25s in five career appearances, but he’s from the Northeast and tends to play his best golf in that part of the country. So this is a “home game” in a sense for him, and it comes at a time when he’s striking the ball wonderfully. He’ll need a little luck on the greens, but at a price like 90.0 I think he offers great value this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Dustin Johnson (1.8) vs. Jordan Spieth (2.1)
Both of these guys are obviously playing well at the moment and they’ve both shown that they know how to capitalize on momentum and carry success from one week to the next, and the opportunity to back Spieth at better than even money against any single player– even a player like Johnson– is difficult to pass up. Spieth has had his difficulty with TPC Boston, however, finding the top-20 just once in four starts here and missing the cut back in 2015, while Johnson, despite never winning this tournament, has registered three top-10s (including two top-5s) and has never missed the cut in seven career appearances. Recommendation: Johnson at 1.8
Rory McIlroy (1.91) vs. Rickie Fowler (1.91)
McIlroy is the defending champion and has now won this tournament twice, so he obviously knows his way around TPC Boston. Fowler has also won here, however, getting the job done in 2015, and he’s in great form right now, reeling off six consecutive top-25 finishes– including three top-5s. Rory had a brief spurt of good play after changing caddies, but the last two weeks have been disappointing, and there’s no denying that he doesn’t seem quite as engaged as he has at certain points in his career. I think Fowler is the right play here. Recommendation: Fowler at 1.91
