PGA TOUR: For 70 years the PGA Tour has been coming to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, and the place affectionately known as Hogan’s Alley holds up just as well today as it did when the Hawk himself was stalking the fairways. Hogan’s five wins at Colonial is a mark that will probably never be equalled (nobody else has more than two), and for that he’ll forever be associated with this event, which is now known as the Dean & Deluca Invitational after Crowne Plaza dropped its title sponsorship.
A fairly strong field will be teeing it up this week, led by the likes of Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, and Zach Johnson. Spieth heads BETDAQ’s win market at 8.0, but his shaky weekend at the Byron Nelson last week will have most looking elsewhere. Still, it should be noted that Colonial, with its tight, tree-lined fairways but very manageable length, is a good stylistic fit for a player like Spieth, and the steely Texan has had tremendous success in his three starts here, finishing second last year and never worse than 14th. You may not want to back him at a price like 8.0, but I wouldn’t be too enthusiastic about the lay, either.
Johnson (28.0) is another market leader with a great record at Colonial, having won this tournament twice in the past six years. He’s been struggling a bit lately, though, failing to contend at other places where he’s had success in the past and not sniffing the top-25 since March. Course knowledge/experience has been a key marker for success in this event, but I’d prefer to stick with players who have shown some recent form to go along with a positive course history. Three such players are below… well, two such players and Steve Stricker:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Charley Hoffman (31.0)- Hoffman is playing the best golf of his career at the moment, logging four top-15 finishes in his past five events and picking up a win in San Antonio last month. He has an extremely well-rounded game, ranking in the top-50 on Tour in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting, and he’s been remarkably consistent this year, missing only one cut in his last 13 starts. Most importantly, he seems to always play well at Colonial, making the cut in all seven of his appearances here and notching three top-20s, including a T10 last year. At a price like 30/1, Hoffman should be backed enthusiastically this week.
Colt Knost (41.0)- I’m riding the hot hand here, as Knost comes in on the heels of back-to-back top-4 finishes and is just oozing with confidence. And Knost is a streaky, “confidence”-type of player: a former U.S. Amateur champion, he lost his self-belief for awhile after turning pro and seemed to be headed down the road to obscurity. The big man has found himself again, though, and when he’s right he’s a legitimate threat to win any time he tees it up, especially on courses that prioritize accuracy off the tee (Colonial certainly fits the bill). His 10th-place showing here last year was his best in five career appearances, and I think he’s a great bet to improve on that performance this time around.
Steve Stricker (130.0)- Stricker is semi-retired now, only teeing it up on courses where he feels like he has a legitimate chance to win. That means we’ve only seen him twice since his 7th-place finish in the Valspar Championship back in March, but don’t go confusing inactivity with inability– Stricker has shot 72 or better in 12 of his past 13 competitive rounds, and he’s been within shouting distance of the lead on Sunday in two of his past four starts. In other words, the guy can still play. His record at Colonial includes a win back in ’09, so he certainly knows his way around the course, and his bookend 67s last year were a reminder that he’s still a factor in this event. Stricker may be out of sight, out of mind these days, but at 130.0 he should definitely be on your radar this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Adam Scott (1.8) vs. Matt Kuchar (2.0)
Scott is an elite player who won this event just two years ago, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s priced as a slight favorite against Kuchar. He hasn’t found the top-10 in nearly three months, though, while Kuchar is coming off back-to-back third-place finishes and has now logged top-10s in four of his past six starts. And Kuchar has some nice history of his own at Colonial, finishing runner-up here as recently as 2013. Recommendation: Kuchar at 2.0
Kevin Na (1.91) vs. Danny Lee (1.91)
Na has had quite a bit of success at Colonial, making 8 of 10 cuts and logging six top-25s, but he’s coming off a missed cut at The Players and has just one top-20 finish in his last eight stroke play events. Lee, meanwhile, has found the top-20 in two of his past three starts and seems to be very comfortable at Colonial, never missing a cut in three career appearances and tying for 10th last year. Recommendation: Lee at 1.91
