DESERT CLASSIC: The world’s best golfers are spread across the globe this week, with a good chunk of them in Abu Dhabi but several others, including Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, and Phil Mickelson, choosing instead to spend the week in a desert of a different kind– Palm Springs, California, where the aptly-named Desert Classic gets underway on Thursday.
Known as the CareerBuilder Challenge in its most recent incarnation, this is the 60th edition of the event that was most prominently known as the Bob Hope Classic, a title it retained for nearly 50 years. Like next month’s AT&T Pebble Beach, the first three rounds are a Pro-Am held over three different courses– La Quinta Country Club, and PGA West’s Nicklaus and Stadium courses– before all the action moves to PGA West Stadium for a pros-only final round on Sunday.
If you like watching professionals grind out pars and sweat out stressful situations, this is not the week for you– this event is always a birdie-fest, as it’s taken 20-under or better to win here in each of the past 11 years. LaQuinta is a straightforward, shortish par-72 that the players eat alive, and the other two courses feature ample room off the tee and not much trickery around the greens. Plus, the setup is always friendly for the first three days on account of all the amateurs in the field, making this one of the most low-stress tests the Tour has to offer.
Jon Rahm aced the test last year, shooting 22-under over four rounds and then edging out Andrew Landry in a playoff. He’s back to defend and seems primed for a big week after a top-10 in Kapalua two weeks ago, but at 8.0 he’s a bit short for my liking (remember when we could habitually get Rahm at 30.0 or better?? Ahh… those were the days). This tournament has not always catered to the favorites, with names like Brian Gay, Mark Wilson, and Hudson Swafford recently engraved in the trophy. And to be frank, I think the value this week is down the board a bit, as some very live contenders are sporting longish prices.
Here are a few suggestions:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Aaron Wise (29.0)- Though he’s not yet mentioned in the same breath as the Jon Rahms of the world, Wise is an elite young talent who is likely to win multiple times over the next few years. He picked up his maiden victory at last year’s Byron Nelson, a performance which helped him earn the PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year award, and he’s off to a solid start in the new season, finishing 15th at November’s Shriner’s Open and then 10th in Mayakoba the following week. After a holiday break he knocked off some rust in Kapalua two weeks ago, so he’s well-position for a big West Coast swing. After all, he’s a West Coast guy who currently resides in Las Vegas, so he’s plenty familiar with desert golf, and he played well in this event last year, finishing 17th despite a balky putter (that’s what happens when you gain over 7 shots on the field tee-to-green). Wise should be considered one of the favorites this week and is very fairly priced at nearly 30/1.
Joaquin Niemann (60.0)- One year ago Niemann was still an amateur, and a heavily-hyped one at that. But when he began his professional career last April we quickly saw what all the fuss was about, as the young Chilean burst onto the scene with four top-10s in his first nine PGA Tour starts. He cooled off a bit in late summer, but he returned to form this fall at the beginning of the Tour’s wraparound season, picking up a top-10 at TPC Summerlin– a desert course that shares a lot of similarities with this week’s venues. Niemann has yet to break through for his first professional victory, but it’s coming, and it’s coming soon. We won’t see prices like 60.0 beside his name for much longer, so I suggest taking advantage while we can.
Jamie Lovemark (172.0)- A better ball-striker than he is a putter, Lovemark has been a consistent cut-maker in his three years on the PGA Tour, though he has rarely contended. But after putting in some work this offseason he feels he’s ready for a big year, saying in an interview recently that he’s playing the best golf of his life. He missed the cut at the Sony last week but didn’t play poorly, shooting rounds of 69-71, and he’ll be playing a very familiar style of golf these next few weeks, as he’s a West Coast guy who grew up playing desert golf in Rancho Santa Fe, California. He had some success in this event a couple of years back, finishing 6th in 2016, so he should be very comfortable with the course(s) and unique format. He’s a longshot, for sure, but he’s got a better chance this week than his price would indicate.
