FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN: The Torrey Pines stop, now known as the Farmers Insurance Open, has always been a highlight of the PGA Tour’s West Coast swing, but this year’s renewal is particularly noteworthy because of the presence of a certain 7-time champion with a predilection for red shirts and Perkins waitresses. That’s right, Tiger Woods will be teeing it up in competition this week for only the second time in the past 18 months, and he’ll be doing it at a place where he won his last major and has played some of his best golf.
Of course, a lot has changed since Tiger limped past Rocco Mediate in the 2008 U.S. Open, and it should be remembered that despite some fan excitement about his birdie-filled performance in December’s Hero World Challenge, Woods beat only three people in the 18-man field. He’s currently trading at 36.0 at BETDAQ, which is laughably short in my opinion but not all that surprising when you consider that just a few years ago, “Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines” was about as sure of a bet as there was in all of sport. His performance this week will be a good indication of not only the current state of his game, but his prospects for the future as well. It should be interesting.
But Tiger’s not the only star attraction this week, as players like Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, and the red-hot Hideki Matsuyama populate the top of BETDAQ’s Win Market. Torrey Pines is a familiar venue for most in the field, and the format will be identical to past years, with both the North and South courses being used over the first two rounds before all the action moves to the South for the weekend.
The South is a long, demanding layout that measures nearly 7,700 yards and features thick rough and tricky Poa annua greens, while the North has been a cakewalk for players in years past, a one-round respite from the grind. That should be the case again this year, though it should be noted that Tom Weiskopf did some redesign work on the North a few months ago, lengthening it by nearly 300 yards, removing several bunkers, and totally reshaping and resurfacing the greens. What effect the changes will have on scoring remains to be seen.
Pars will be at a premium this week, and we should be on the lookout for quality ball-strikers who are good with the driver in their hands. Defending champion Brandt Snedeker doesn’t necessarily fit that mold, but his comfort on the Torrey Pines greens has been obvious through the years, which makes him a threat anytime he tees it up in this event. His 9-under par finish made it three years in a row in which the winner of this tournament fell short of the 10-under mark, proof that this one of the most difficult stops on Tour by any measure.
Here are a few recommendations to consider:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Justin Rose (34.0)- Though Rose is a marquee name, the fact the he has missed the cut here in each of the past two years will throw many off the scent this week. But is his record at Torrey Pines really all that bad? The South course was the hardest par-72 layout on the PGA Tour in 2016 according to scoring average, yet Rose has shot par or better in 13 of his past 16 rounds in this tournament, never carding a round higher than 74 in that span. Prior to his last two appearances he had made three consecutive cuts and found the top-25 twice, so he’s certainly familiar with what he’ll be facing this week, and his superior tee-to-green ability always puts him at an advantage on the more demanding layouts. And after what we saw at the Sony Open a couple of weeks ago, when he shot 66-64-66-64 and beat every human in the field (I’m sticking to the belief that Justin Thomas was replaced by a golfing android for his Hawaii trip), he looks mighty tempting at better than 30/1.
Charles Howell III (52.0)- Howell has been a steady performer on Tour for nearly two decades but he doesn’t win much, leading some to label the former blue-chip prospect a disappointment. If you’ve been paying attention, however, you know that Howell is playing as well as he has at any point in his career, logging top-15 finishes in each of his past five starts. Three of those tournaments were in November, but his 8th-place showing at the Sony two weeks ago and his 12th-place finish at the CareerBuilder Challenge last week served as definitive proof that he’s still in the midst of a hot streak. And throughout his career he’s been an absolute cash register at Torrey Pines, playing this event in each of the past 12 years, making the cut every time, finishing runner-up twice and 16th or better eight times. Howell is the consummate “current form meets course history” play this week and is certainly a value at his current price.
Bud Cauley (130.0)- Cauley nearly pulled out his first PGA Tour win last week, falling short only when Hudson Stafford birdied three of his final four holes to pull away from the pack. Still, it was an awfully impressive performance from a guy who’s been very streaky throughout his brief career, contending several times but also missing dozens of cuts. He seems to fare best at traditional layouts like Torrey Pines, and his 25th-place finish in this event last year would have been a whole lot better had it not been for a disastrous final-round 79. I’m sure his play through the first three rounds gave him plenty of confidence in his ability to get it done at Torrey Pines, however, and the lightning he caught last week may be the start of something big. I know this: at a price like 130.0, you could do a lot worse than Cauley.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Brooks Koepka (1.91) vs. Brandt Snedeker (1.91)
Many expect Koepka to play well here because he seems to be a good fit for Torrey Pines: long and fairly straight off the tee, with soft hands and a knack for playing hard golf courses well. He’s only played this event once, however, finishing 41st in 2015, and he hasn’t played competitively in nearly two months, so we don’t really know what we’re going to see from him this week. I’d feel much more comfortable backing a guy like Snedeker, who, in addition to winning this tournament twice, has two runner-ups and a 3rd-place showing in ten career appearances. Snedeker is a demon on those Poa annua greens, and the fact that he missed the cut at the Sony after shooting 70-69 is not the least bit concerning to me. Recommendation: Snedeker at 1.91
Jason Day (1.91) vs. Dustin Johnson (1.91)
Johnson has a spotty record in this event, finishing in the top 20 just twice in nine career appearances and never really contending aside from his top-5 back in 2011. At least we know what his golf game looks like right now, though– his runner-up showing in Abu Dhabi last week came on the heels of a 6th place finish at Kapalua, which was preceded by a 3rd-place finish in the Hero World Challenge, which came after top-10s in each of the final three Playoff events… you get the idea. Johnson is in top form and is a threat to win anytime he tees it up. Day, on the other hand, is a bit of a mystery after dealing with health issues over the past several months. He was solid at Kapalua three weeks ago, finishing 12th in a 32-man field, but prior to that we saw him withdrawing from important tournaments and generally looking uncomfortable on the golf course. He does have a great history at Torrey Pines, but he’s not as much of a sure thing as someone like DJ this week. Recommendation: Johnson at 1.91
