GENESIS: Though Pebble Beach may be the Golden State’s most famous course, the crown jewel event of the PGA Tour’s California Swing has always been this tournament, long known as the L.A. Open and now, for the past six years, the Genesis Invitational.
Normally held at Riviera Country Club, which is widely considered Los Angeles County’s finest course and is a favorite amongst the players, this year’s event has been relocated to the San Diego area on account of the wildfires that ravaged much of greater Los Angeles in recent weeks. Now, I know what you’re thinking: hey, there’s a lot of great golf in Southern California, and it will be kind of fun to see the players take on a new course and a fresh challenge. While I happen to agree with these sentiments, that’s not what we ended up with this week — we’re getting Torrey Pines… again.
Look, I get it. It’s not easy to find a course with enough property to accommodate the PGA Tour’s traveling circus and the tens of thousands of ticket-buying spectators that will be roaming the grounds, while also being challenging enough and in good enough condition to host a world-class event. And Torrey Pines is a great venue, one that’s been a regular on Tour since the 1960s and has also hosted two U.S. Opens in the past 20 years. That being said, we just saw this movie three weeks ago, when Harris English survived a difficult week at Torrey to win the Farmers Insurance Open by a single stroke. Yet here we are, back again, only this time there’s more money on the line, as this is one of the Tour’s Signature Events, complete with a major championship-quality field and a $20 million purse.
The course itself is a bear, a 7,700-yard death march that features narrow fairways, difficult rough, and small poa annua greens. At the Farmers last month only six players finished the week at better than 3-under par, and the champion, English, finished at minus-8, making this one of the rare non-majors in which the winner failed reach double-digits under par. Bombers generally thrive at Torrey on account of the prodigious length (7.765 yards from all the way back), and keep an eye on players who have a good record on poa annua greens — this is definitely a “horses for courses” type of venue. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Hideki Matsuyama (27.0)- With its emphasis on ball striking, particularly the ability to hit it long and straight off the tee, Torrey Pines is Matsuyama’s kind of place. It should come as no surprise, then, that he’s had a long history of success here, finding the top-15 four times at Torrey since 2018, including a T3 at the Farmers in 2019. He’s as consistent as they come, ranking in the top-15 on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, on approach, and around the green yet again in this young season. And he already has a victory under his belt, taking home the title at Kapalua last month, so he’ll be playing with that house money confidence and should be very dangerous this week. He’s a good bet at better than 25/1.
Tony Finau (49.0)- After a somewhat disappointing 2024 by his lofty standards, Finau is off to a good start this season, logging two top-15 finishes in four starts, including a T13 at Pebble last time out, a performance that would’ve been even better had it not been for a 3rd-round 73. Still one of the longest guys on Tour, Finau has traditionally relied on his tee-to-green prowess to achieve results, but he’s off to a good start on the greens this season, ranking 30th on Tour in putting average. That bodes well for his chances these next few weeks as his ball-striking continues to sharpen. It could all come together for him this week — given his record at Torrey Pines, which includes seven top-10 finishes in his last ten starts here and a runner-up in the 2021 Farmers, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if he were able to break through for his 7th career victory and first since 2023. Finau feels like a great value at nearly 50/1.
Daniel Berger (112.0)- It’s been a long road back for Berger, who reached as high as the top-20 of the Official World Golf Rankings before totally falling of the map due to injury and a corresponding loss of confidence. After missing a dozen cuts over the first half of last season, he began to start looking like himself again in the fall, finishing 7th at the Sanderson Farms in October and runner-up at the year-ending RSM Classic. He’s carried that form over to the early part of this season, finishing 21st at the American Express and then, in a vintage performance, runner-up in Phoenix last week, shooting 68 or better in all four rounds and posting a 4-day total of 17-under 267. If that’s not a sign that he’s back, it’s at least confirmation that he’s really close to “back”, and we know that, when he’s right, Berger makes birdies in bunches and can post some seriously low numbers. He’s played well at Torrey Pines before, finding the top-10 in the 2021 U.S. Open and finishing T20 at the Farmers the following year, so this feels like a nice setup for Berger as he looks to make a return to the spotlight in a big way. He’s a terrific value as a triple-digit longshot.
