GENESIS: After an exciting week at Pebble the Tour now moves on to a different iconic venue, Riviera Country Club, for yet another $20 million Signature Event. This two-week stretch is not only the climax of the early season West Coast Swing, but also the time when the elite players begin to separate themselves on the money list and in the FedEx Cup standings. After all, the PGA Tour is now effectively two tours: you have events like these, with much bigger purses, more ranking points, and a limited, “exclusive” field, and then you have tournaments like next week’s stop, the Cognizant Classic, which will have a much bigger field but much less of the other stuff… i.e. money, points, prestige. So, it’s a situation where the rich get richer and it’s harder than ever for a young player or an unheralded journeyman to break through into the ranks of the elite. Does it seem problematic for the Tour’s business in the long run? Sure does. Might it change anytime soon, now that the money faucet has been turned on and the top players have been thoroughly soaked? Not a chance.
Nestled in the heart of West L.A., just north of Santa Monica, Riviera was originally built in 1926 at the height of the roaring 20s golf boom. It has been the site of three major championships, a senior major, and the U.S. Amateur, in addition to hosting this tournament 61 times (last year it was held at Torrey Pines due to the wildfires that ravaged the area around Riviera). It has changed very little over the years, with the last renovation occurring in 1992, when Ben Crenshaw and his design partner Bill Coore returned the bunkers to their original character and appearance. It’s not particularly long by modern standards and its most famous hole is probably the 315-yard par-4 10th, which is widely considered the best short par-4 in golf. It’s not easy, though– the winning score usually hovers in the 10-15-under range, as the narrow fairways, small greens, and sticky kikuyu rough will put the players to the test. There’s no “faking it” around Riviera– tee-to-green precision will be required this week.
Being that this is a Signature Event, we have another field oozing with star power, with the world’s top two players Scheffler (4.4) and McIlroy (14.0) heading BETDAQ’s Win Market. Considering what we’ve seen out of those two at Riviera — only three top-10s and zero top-5s in their last 8 combined appearances at this event — I’m going to take my chances elsewhere this week. Here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Tommy Fleetwood (22.0)- Though he’s been active elsewhere, Fleetwood made his 2026 PGA Tour debut at last week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am and looked awfully good doing it, firing a four-round total of 20-under 268 for a 4th-place finish. We all know he’s one of the finest tee-to-green players in the world, so it should come as no surprise that he likes it at Riviera and has found the top-20 in this event in each of the past two years, including a T10 last year. It’s been said that Fleetwood doesn’t win enough and I’m sure he’d probably agree with that, but he did finally get the PGA Tour monkey off his back with a win at last year’s Tour Championship and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he were to get the job done this week at a course perfectly suited for someone with his ball-striking chops. I’m willing to take a chance on him at a price like 22.0.
Maverick McNealy (50.0)- McNealy has continued his steady march up the world rankings in 2026, finding the top-30 in all four of his starts to move to No. 24 in the world. Highlights include a 10th-place showing at the Farmers and a T13 in Phoenix two weeks ago, where he really had it going after opening with rounds of 67-69-65 before a Sunday 72 knocked him off the pace a bit. He’s been striking the ball really well, ranking 23rd on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, and if his putting stats get back to where they usually are he’ll be contending on a weekly basis. A California kid who plays his best golf on the West Coast, McNealy finished 7th the last time he teed it up here, in 2022, and he’s improved significantly since then. He’s a great value at nearly 50/1.
Sahith Theegala (130.0)- Though he’s coming off a tough year and hasn’t found the winner’s circle since 2023, Theegala has quietly put together a nice start to the 2026 campaign, making the cut in all five of his starts and logging a pair of top-10s (T8 at the AmEx, T7 at the Farmers) plus a T18 in Phoenix two weeks back. While his tee-to-green game has been solid, his putting is really what has made the difference this season, as he currently ranks 19th on Tour in putting average after really struggling with the flat stick in 2025. A win this week would be the high point of Theegala’s career thus far, but it’s certainly not out of the question given his current form at his record at Riviera, where he’s never missed a cut and has highlights that include a 6th-place finish in 2023. He may be a bit of a dark horse, but at a price like 130.0 the value is certainly there.
