HOUSTON OPEN: The Houston Open has been a fixture on the PGA Tour schedule since the mid-20th century, with Byron Nelson winning the first staging of the event back in 1946, when it was held at River Oaks Country Club. The following year the tournament was moved to Memorial Park Golf Course, a municipal course just outside downtown Houston, and the legendary South African Bobby Locke cruised to a 5-shot victory. It then became a nomadic tournament, jumping around to different courses in the Houston area, but last year it returned to Memorial Park for the first time in 57 years and it appears to have found a permanent home at the venerable public access track that has been renovated to meet modern standards.
Originally built in 1936 atop a WW1-era U.S. Army training base, the course was designed by John Bredemus and opened to instant acclaim, gaining widespread recognition as the best public course in East Texas. It was renovated in 1995 but retained much of its old-school charm (as can be personally attested to by your author, who has played it several times), and yet it wasn’t fit to host a modern-day professional event until a massive redesign in 2019 that was headed by Tom Doak, with significant input from Brooks Koepka. This new-look Memorial Park now measures some 7,430 yards from the tips and features five par-5s and five par-3s, as well as mounds, hollows, and run-off areas around the greens where dozens of bunkers used to be. It played firm and fast last year and really showed its teeth, as the cutline was over-par and only three players finished the week at double-digits under par.
Mexican star Carlos Ortiz hoisted the trophy last year and looked to be well-equipped to defend after a runner-up finish at Mayakoba last week, but a shoulder injury forced him to withdraw on Tuesday so we’ll have a new champion this year. The red-hot Sam Burns heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 16.5, but this field is considerably stronger than the one he conquered in Mississippi last month at the Sanderson Farms Championship, so I’m happy seeking value elsewhere. These three seem to strike a pretty good price/expectation balance:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Aaron Wise (42.0)- Big things were expected of Wise after he won the AT&T Byron Nelson back in 2018, setting a new tournament record at 23-under, but further success didn’t come as easy as some thought, as putting struggles and a loss of confidence sent the young Wise into a months-long slump. He’s back now, though, reeling off six consecutive finishes of 26th or better, including back-to-back top-10s at the Shriners and CJ Cup and a T15 in Mayakoba last week. Improvement on the greens has been a big reason for this recent run, and much of that can be chalked up to a switch to a long putter– last season, with his conventional putter, Wise ranked 174th on Tour in strokes gained putting, but since switching to the broom he’s up to 83rd in this new season, and when you hit the ball like Wise does, merely being average on the greens is good enough to make some serious cash. He’s been closing in on another victory and this could be the week– not only is he playing well, but he seemed very comfortable at Memorial Park last year, shooting par or better in all four rounds and finishing T11. He’s a live one this week and an excellent value at better than 40/1.
Cameron Tringale (70.0)- Don’t let a missed cut at Mayakoba last week throw you off the scent here– Tringale has been playing some terrific golf in this new season, making 5 of 6 cuts and finishing runner-up in the ZOZO Championship just three weeks ago. And despite missing the cut last week, he shot par or better in both rounds, which means he still has yet to shoot over-par in any of his 22 competitive rounds this season. A great putter who does his best work on Bermuda greens, Tringale seemed right at home at Memorial Park last year, finishing T29 despite coming into the event in poor form, having missed the cut in 2 of his previous 3 starts. He brings a little game with him this time, being just two starts removed from a runner-up finish, so I’m sure he expects to be in the mix on Sunday afternoon, and those are my expectations as well. At a price like 70.0, Triangle might be the best value on the board this week.
Jason Day (100.0)- Day hasn’t been playing much lately so this is admittedly a bit of a dart throw, but the price is certainly right, and in last month’s CJ Cup– Day’s lone start this season– we saw the Aussie turn back the clock on Sunday, firing a 65 after struggling to find his form for most of the week. Is it really too difficult to imagine a scenario where Day found something on that Sunday, has been working on it for the past couple of weeks and has now decided to enter this event with a newfound confidence? He certainly knows the best way around Memorial Park after finding the top-10 here last year, so if his game is right, look out. Day is well worth chancing this week at a triple-digit price.
