HONDA CLASSIC: The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing kicks off this week with the Honda Classic, an event that has produced an impressive list of champions over the past few years but will have to do without the sport’s biggest names this time around, as world No. 7 Adam Scott is the highest-ranked player in the field. Scott also happens to be the defending champion and he heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 14.0, so all eyes will be on the Aussie as he tees it up for just the second time in 2017.

PGA National’s Champion Course will serve as the host venue for the 11th consecutive year; it’s a Fazio brothers design that was heavily modified by Jack Nicklaus in 1990, to the point where it’s now considered a Nicklaus design for all intents and purposes. Like most Nicklaus courses, it prioritizes ball-striking and forces players to take on shots that can be very penalizing if not properly executed. Water comes into play on 13 holes, and the notorious “Bear Trap”– the par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th– is among the most nerve-wracking finishing stretches in all of golf and has ruined many a good round. The demanding layout frequently gets an assist from the strong coastal winds, which helps explain why the winner of this tournament has reached double-digits under par just twice in the past ten years.

Along with reliable ball-strikers who are good in the wind, we should be looking for players who are comfortable on Bermuda grass, as the Bermuda that covers PGA National tee-to-green is known to be especially grainy. That means players with ties to the Southeastern United Staes, Australia, South Africa, and other warm-weather locales should be at the top of our list, and those that don’t fit the criteria should be avoided in most cases.

Dustin Johnson’s easy victory at Riviera last week capped off a terrific fortnight for us, as we were rewarded for picking from the top of the market for the second straight week. While the shortish odds may diminish the feat somewhat, picking two winners in a row on the PGA Tour is not something I take for granted, and it sure is nice having a little extra cash to kick around. And considering the “house money” feel we have going and the fact that we’re obviously seeing things pretty well at the moment, I don’t see any reason why we can’t make it a turkey– three in a row– this week. Here are my thoughts:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Daniel Berger (33.0)- Berger had a big year in 2016, winning the St. Jude Classic and racking up eight other top-15 finishes, and his game sure looked sharp in his last start, a 7th-place showing at the Phoenix Open three weeks ago. A birdie-making machine who’s long off the tee and streaky with the putter, Berger is a native Floridian who plays his best golf on Bermuda grass (Exhibit A: last year’s St. Jude Classic), and he surely feels plenty confident at PGA National after his runner-up finish in this tournament back in 2015. Like many young players, Berger has a certain fearlessness about him, and if he gets it going this week he could run away and hide, much like what we just saw from D.J. at Riviera. This course and this tournament are right in his wheelhouse. At 33.0, Berger is my favorite bet on the board.

Luke Donald (80.0)- Donald has awakened from his early-season slumber over the past couple of weeks, following a T23 at Pebble Beach with a 17th-place finish in last week’s Genesis Open. Now he returns to a place where he’s had considerable success, even if you discount his 2006 win on account of it not coming at PGA National. He’s played well at this venue, too, finishing runner-up in 2008 and logging top-10s in 2011, 2014, and 2015 while never missing a cut. South Florida has been a second home for Donald over the years, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s well-adjusted to the Bermuda grass and the Florida-style golf, with its bountiful water hazards, sticky heat and seemingly ever-present wind. It’s true that Donald doesn’t win much these days, but this is almost a “home game” for him and he’s been in good form lately, so I’m happy to take a stab at a price like 80.0.

William McGirt (108.0)- McGirt proved his mettle with his win at The Memorial last year, and since then he’s been a steady moneymaker, with six top-25 finishes in his past 15 starts. His most recent came three weeks ago in Phoenix, and had it not been for a Sunday 73 his 24th-place showing there would have been considerably better. That was out of character, too, as the steady McGirt has played 27 consecutive competitive rounds since last shooting over 73. A South Carolina native, McGirt grew up on Bermuda grass and has as much experience on it as anyone in the field, and so, unsurprisingly, he’s played some of his best golf on Bermuda-covered courses. His record in this event ain’t too shabby, either, with five made cuts in six career appearances, and his 8th-place finish last year may be an indication that he’s figured it out and is ready to take the next step. He’s got a better chance this week than his price would indicate.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Sergio Garcia (1.91) vs. Justin Thomas (1.91)

PGA National seems like a good fit for Sergio, and indeed he’s had great success in this tournament, never missing a cut in six career appearances and finishing runner-up last year. He wasn’t at his best last week, though, breaking par just once in four rounds at Riviera and finishing 49th. Thomas, meanwhile, has been red-hot in 2017, winning twice and shooting a combined 95-under par in his past 26 competitive rounds. His 3rd-place showing in this event last year should be proof enough of his comfort level at PGA National. Recommendation: Thomas at 1.91

Thomas Pieters (1.91) vs. Kevin Kisner (1.91)

Pieters is one of the world’s best young players but was still largely unknown outside of Europe prior to last year’s Ryder Cup, but now, after a great week at Hazeltine and a runner-up finish at Riviera last week, he’s not sneaking up on anybody. This will be his first appearance at the Honda, however, and he doesn’t have a whole lot of experience on Bermuda grass. Kisner, on the other hand, is a native Southerner who’s a snake on the Bermuda, and he’s quietly been playing some nice golf himself, logging top-25s in each of his last three starts and cracking the top-10 twice. Recommendation: Kisner at 1.91