MAYAKOBA CLASSIC: The PGA Tour’s long and winding 2020 ends this week in lovely Playa del Carmen, Mexico, where a stronger-than-usual field will seek to finish the season on a high note at the Mayakoba Classic.
This event has been a fixture on the schedule for some 14 years, but it was given a shot of credibility a couple of years back with the addition of FedEx Cup points and a Masters invite for the winner, and considering the luxury resort venue and year-round perfect weather, you can certainly understand why some of the Tour’s brightest stars, including the likes of Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and Rickie Fowler, have chosen to decamp for a little Mexican vacation. And with a $7.2 million purse, including a cool $1.296 mil going to the champion, there’s going to be some fat holiday bonus checks floating around.
El Camaleon Golf Club has hosted this tournament since its inception back in 2007, and the Greg Norman layout has held up fairly well, producing a few exciting finishes and presenting a bit of a challenge tee-to-green, especially when the wind picks up. That said, the scores have steadily improved since the tournament was moved to late autumn, and last year Brendon Todd became the third winner since 2016 to post 20-under or better. At only 7,017 yards, El Camaleon is the type of course that prioritizes accuracy over distance– as a matter of fact, not only does a lack of length off the tee not hurt you at El Camaleon, but history suggests that it actually helps, given that of the past 13 winners here, 10 finished that season outside the top-100 on Tour in driving distance, with an average rank of 124th (h/t @justinraygolf).
The paspalum greens are another oddity this week– tour players don’t see paspalum much, as it’s mostly used in tropical climates where there will be heavy exposure to saltwater. Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course is probably the most famous course in the world to utilize paspalum, but as far as regular PGA Tour stops go, the only ones that come to mind are in Puerto Rico and the DR– two events that aren’t frequented by top players. So putting is a bit of a wild card this week, unless, that is, you’re planning on backing Pat Perez (188.0), a known paspalum shark.
Here are a few suggestions:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Corey Conners (34.0)- Conners has really hit his stride over the past month, logging three top-10s and a T24 in four starts, including a T10 at the Masters that featured a Friday 65. He was back in action the very next week, closing with rounds of 66-64 to finish 10th at the RSM Classic, so there’s no concern about a Masters hangover, and considering the Tour is about to go on a brief hiatus, this is our last, best chance to get a piece of Conners while he’s running hot. He’s played this tournament twice, making the cut once, but both times he was in the midst of a patch of bad results, so I don’t think his past record here is necessarily predictive of what we’re going to see this week. A phenomenal ball-striker who ranked 16th on Tour in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green last season, Conners will have looks at birdie all week long, and if he can catch just a little heat with his putter, he’ll be right in the mix. He’s worth a bet at a price like 34.0.
Carlos Ortiz (54.0)- Along with Abraham Ancer, Ortiz is carrying the flag for Mexican golf these days, and he’s doing it quite well, picking up his first PGA Tour victory at the Houston Open three weeks ago, where he fought off Hideki Matsuyama and Dustin Johnson with a final round 65. This will be his first start since that triumph, and sometimes people react differently to playing in their home country, where they’re a clear local favorite, but Ortiz didn’t seem to have any issues last year, finishing runner-up in this event after closing with rounds of 65-65-66. Now playing with house money and loads of confidence at a place where he feels extremely comfortable, Ortiz is dangerous this week, and a terrific value at better than 50/1.
Brice Garnett (160.0)- This tournament has been kind to the longshots, with each of the past four champions starting the week at 80/1 or longer. Amongst this week’s rogues gallery of triple-digit hopefuls, Garnett stands out as a straightforward “horses for courses” candidate, as he’s a combined 31-under at this event over the last two years, finishing 11th in 2019 and 5th in 2018. Combine that with the fact that he’s made 5 of his last 7 cuts and finished T21 in Bermuda three starts ago, at a course that shares some similarities with El Camaleon, and you start to see why a bet on Garnett at a price like 160.0 might make some sense. His form is reasonably intact, and he’s coming to a place where he’s had significant, sustained success. This profiles as an ideal spot for him to pick up his second career PGA Tour victory.
