MEXICO OPEN: After a flurry of Signature Events and a string of iconic West Coast courses, the PGA Tour takes a bit of a breather this week and heads South of the Border for Mexico’s national open.
Of course, it won’t be much of a “breather” for the guys teeing it up (though a few days of golf at a 5-star resort situated right on the Pacific Ocean ain’t exactly hard labor), but the big names have stayed home this week and left the youngsters, journeymen, and partial status types to battle it out. That means someone’s life may change forever over the next four days, and it also means the betting market should be wide open and highly combustible. Triple-digit longshots will turn into short-odds favorites after a hot stretch of holes simply because the types of players who would remain near the top of the market even after a slow start simply aren’t here this week. Don’t be surprised if the trading is fast and furious as the action cranks up.
The venue, the Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta, was built in 2015 and has quickly earned a reputation as one of Mexico’s top golfing destinations. This will be its fourth year hosting this event and from all indications I expect it to be the permanent home of this somewhat nomadic tournament which has bounced around a few places since first being staged in 1944. A par-71 that tips out at a beefy 7,456 yards, Vidanta Vallarta does not present a tremendous challenge to the players due to minimal rough and a general lack of severity off the tee. However, indigenous trees and jungle foliage line several fairways and water hazards come into play on more than half the holes, so there are definitely places to stub your toe. Also, the paspalum greens can be a bit tricky to read for those who aren’t used to them, but many guys here this week are veterans of the Tour’s “island circuit”, the informal name given to those tournaments in tropical locales that most of the big names avoid, and paspalum may as well be the official grass of the island circuit.
Jake Knapp held off the field on Sunday to pick up his first career PGA Tour win here last year, racing out to the lead with rounds of 67-64-63 before bringing it home with a white-knuckle 71. As mentioned, the course is not a particularly demanding one by Tour standards, so we can expect birdies in bunches this week and should look for players who thrive in that type of environment. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Patrick Rodgers (28.0)- Rodgers has logged a couple of really nice results lately, finishing T22 at the AT&T Pebble Beach and then third in last week’s Genesis Invitational, where he broke par in all four rounds on the difficult Torrey Pines layout. That should give him a nice shot of confidence as he returns this week to a place that has treated him very well in recent years — Vidanta Vallarta. Rodgers has teed it up here in each of the past three years — so, every year Vidanta Vallarta has hosted this tournament — and has never finished outside the top-10, with last year’s T6 his best result thus far. The sight lines, the layout, the green complexes, the paspalum… whatever it is, there’s something about this place that agrees with Rodgers, and he’s never come in here on the heels of a top-3 finish, as is the case this year. The price here may feel a bit short at first glance, but I predict it won’t feel that way once the dust settles on the first couple of rounds.
Beau Hossler (47.0)- Having built a reputation as a bit of a “feast or famine” player these past few years, Hossler won’t be found on the leaderboard every week, but when he’s right, he’s shown the ability to contend. It’s only a matter of time until he breaks through with a victory. He’s been in good form to start the season, going 4/4 in cuts made and finding the top-15 twice, and his putting has been tremendous, as he ranks 3rd on Tour in overall putting average and 13th in strokes gained putting. A veteran of the Island Circuit, Hossler generally performs well on paspalum greens, and he looked good in his only previous appearance at Vidanta Vallarta, finishing 10th here back in 2023. He’s a good value this week at nearly 50/1.
Greyson Sigg (72.0)- Though his progress on Tour has been a bit slower than some of his ex-college teammates from the University of Georgia, Sigg is starting to find his groove and has been cashing some big checks lately, logging five top-25 finishes and three top-10s across his last 10 starts. His most recent top-10 came just a couple of weeks ago at the Farmers, and his last start was a T32 in Phoenix, where he bounced back nicely after an opening round 73. Sigg is beginning to put himself in position to contend regularly and a tournament like this, when the big stars and big galleries are mostly absent, seems like the perfect opportunity for him to get over the hump and finally find the winner’s circle. He has a nice history at Vidanta Vallarta, finding the top-20 in 2 of his 3 appearances here, so he knows his way around the course and should have confidence in his plan. I’ve got a good feeling about Sigg this week.
