NORTHERN TRUST OPEN: The PGA Tour returns to historic Riviera Country Club this week for the 90th staging of the Northern Trust Open (formerly the Los Angeles Open), and BETDAQ’s markets have been lively thanks to a field that is perhaps the strongest we’ve seen in this young season. Jordan Spieth (7.4) and Rory McIlroy (9.2) are both here, as is Justin Rose (20.0), Dustin Johnson (19.5), Bubba Watson (27.0), Sergio Garcia (32.0), Hideki Matsuyama (20.0), Charl Schwartzel (32.0), Adam Scott (52.0)… in other words, there’s no shortage of top-shelf talent on hand, and Riviera has a history of producing big-name champions (with a couple of recent exceptions– John Merrick in 2013 and James Hahn last year).
The course itself is a beauty– one of those timeless pieces of golf architecture that holds up through the generations of changing technology and styles. It’s a par-71 that features small, tricky greens whose poa annua surfaces make putting a bit more difficult than usual. The 10th is a drivable par-4 often called the “best short par-4 in golf”, and the back nine is filled with holes that can be birdied but also easily bogeyed, making Sunday afternoons in this tournament must-see TV. Length is not required to succeed but it certainly helps, particularly on some of the longer par-5s that will only be reachable in two for the big hitters (the 17th comes to mind). Accuracy off the tee is more important, as an abundance of tight dog-legs puts a premium on shotmaking ability and reminds you why Riviera will forever be known as Hogan’s Alley.
James Hahn is the defending champ and he can currently be had at a whopping 200.0 at BETDAQ, so if you’ve got an inkling that Mr. Hahn may repeat then this is your week to get rich. As for me, I think I’ll take my chances with the following selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Justin Rose (20.0)- Rose fits the profile of someone who should succeed at Riviera– he’s plenty long off the tee and can work the ball in either direction, and he’s really improved his short game (particularly his putting) in recent years, which is why he’s now a fixture in the top-10 of the world rankings. Thing is, he’s played this tournament nine times and has never finished inside the top-5. That has thrown many off the scent this week, but a closer look at Rose’s record at Riviera reveals it’s not quite as scary as some make it out to be: he’s made 8 of 9 cuts and has notched two top-15 finishes in the last five years. So he’s had moderate success, and he obviously thinks enough of the course to keep on returning year after year. That’s good enough for me, especially when current form is taken into consideration– last week’s 6th-place showing at Pebble Beach was Rose’s third top-13 finish in his last four PGA Tour events. Don’t be surprised if he breaks through with a victory this week.
Harris English (66.0)- English was mired in a slump for most of the 2015 season but it’s clear that he’s now emerging from the fog, improving in each of his three starts this year and finally getting it rolling in the Waste Management Phoenix Open two weeks ago, where he finished 3rd after carding a final-round 66 (I just never tire of typing “Waste Management”, you know? Appeals to my childish sense of humor… I suggest they begin sponsoring all political events– “The Waste Management 2016 Election: Time to Take Out the Trash”). Significantly, he seems to feel very comfortable at Riviera, making the cut in each of his three career appearances in this event and finishing 10th in 2014. This may be the perfect time for an English play– his game is coming around and his confidence has to be sky-high after a top-5 in his last start, he’s playing a familiar course that has treated him well in the past, and yet his odds are still long enough to make backing him an awfully tempting proposition. I think I’ll stick my toe in the water.
Danny Lee (128.0)- Lee doesn’t have much experience in this event, though he did make the cut last year. He has an excellent all-around game, however, and you need both precision ball-striking and short-game brilliance in order to succeed at Riviera, which ranked as the most difficult par-71 on the PGA Tour last season. Bottom line: Lee is an ascendant player who has transformed from “talented project” to “world-class competitor” over the past 18 months, with his 4th-place showing in Phoenix two weeks ago serving as the latest example of this transformation. This is a 125/1 longshot that has a legitimate chance to win the golf tournament, so I suggest you dig through your pockets and throw a couple of bucks at him. You may be happy you did come Sunday afternoon…
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jordan Spieth (1.8) vs. Rory McIlroy (2.0)
McIlroy has been sharp lately, finishing 3rd in Abu Dhabi and 6th in Dubai, and getting the opportunity to back him as an underdog in a one-on-one situation is pretty rare indeed. He’s never played in this tournament before, though, and Spieth has excelled at Riviera, responding to a missed cut in his first appearance here with a T12 in 2014 and a T4 last year. I’ll side with the steely Texan this week. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.8
Dustin Johnson (1.8) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (2.0)
Johnson was a disappointment at Pebble Beach last week but he appears to have mastered Riviera, finishing runner-up in this event in each of the past two years. And it’s not like his game is too far off– he had recorded four consecutive top-20 finishes prior to last week’s letdown, so I wouldn’t be too panicked about the current state of his game. Matsuyama is a fine young player (and he made me a pretty penny in Phoenix two weeks ago!), but his putting is inconsistent and he simply can’t match Johnson’s track record at Riviera. Recommendation: Johnson at 1.8
