OHL CLASSIC: The PGA Tour escaped the election madness this week by fleeing south of the border, where El Camaleon Golf Club in Playa del Carmen will once again play host to the OHL Classic. This is the tenth staging of this event and it seems to be on the upswing, as a record purse of $7 million has attracted some top-flight talent.
Of course, the field is still a little light on the big names, but for a tournament that used to be held opposite the WGC Match Play it’s certainly an upgrade. Last year’s champion Graeme McDowell returns to defend his title, and the top of the market is populated by players like Russell Knox, Jim Furyk, Jon Rahm, and Emiliano Grillo.
EL Camaleon is a par-71 that measures just 6,987 yards, making it one of the shortest courses on Tour. It’s a coastal layout, however, so the wind is usually a factor, and the small paspalum greens can be difficult to find. But players will be hitting lots of wedges, as you would expect on a 6,900-yard course, so scores should be relatively low– four of the past five champions have finished the week at 17-under or better, and McDowell’s 18-under total last year was only good enough for a playoff.
Winners can be a bit more difficult to find than usual in fields like this, with no dominant players but a host of guys capable of getting the job done, but I believe we’ve found some value with these three selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
John Rahm (21.0)- Rahm has been flirting with victory since making his PGA Tour debut nearly one year ago, finishing in the top-3 twice and racking up six top-15 finishes in just 11 professional starts. The very first of those finishes came in this event last year, when he rode a third-round 66 to tie for 10th, so we know he feels comfortable at El Camaleon, and based on what we’ve seen out of the young Spaniard I think it’s safe to say that he has the right disposition for a go-low birdie fest. He’s coming off back-to-back top-15s to open the season, so we know he’s playing well, and the course and its surroundings in Playa del Carmen are very similar to Rahm’s hometown of Barrika. I would handicap Rahm as the favorite this week, making him well worth a bet at 20/1.
John Huh (80.0)- Huh is a streaky player who finished last season on a low note, registering just one top-20 finish in his final 16 events. We’re back on the West Coast, however, where he seems to play his best golf, and he looks to have his game in shape again after a 10th-place showing at the Shriners last week. El Camaleon is the site of his lone PGA Tour victory (2012) and he has two additional top-30 finishes in this tournament, so the course clearly suits his eye. Streaky is not a bad thing when a guy’s playing well, and I think we’re catching Huh in the opening stages of a hot stretch.
Jason Bohn (114.0)- Bohn suffered a heart attack earlier this year that kept him out of action for awhile, but he seems to slowly be finding his sea legs, making back-to-back cuts and putting together four solid rounds at the Shriners last week. The reason for his inclusion here is simple: in his last three appearances in this event he’s finished 3rd, 7th, and runner-up. The old phrase “horses for courses” was meant for situations like this, as Bohn may be an average Tour player for 51 weeks a year but turns into an instant contender the moment he sets foot on the property at El Camaleon. He’s a must-bet at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Graeme McDowell (1.86) vs. Billy Horschel (1.86)
G-Mac’s win here last year was a bit of a surprise, as he finished outside the top-60 in his only other trip south of the border, and his current form is a bit of an unknown after he missed the cut at the Shriners last week. Horschel, meanwhile, has three top-15 finishes in his past five starts and a couple of good showings in this event, highlighted by a top-10 back in 2011. Recommendation: Horschel at 1.86
Scott Piercy (1.86) vs. Keegan Bradley (1.86)
Bradley has emerged from the darkness after a forgettable 2015-16 season, logging top-10s in each of his past two starts and beginning to make strides with his putter. He also finished 8th in this tournament last year, making him somewhat of a popular bet this week. Color me unconvinced, however. Bradley’s putting issues post-belly putter have been chronic, and he’s not the greatest short iron player in the world, a critical ingredient for success at El Camaleon. Piercy has been playing some good golf himself, finishing 3rd in last week’s Safeway Open and 10th at the CIMB Classic. Recommendation: Piercy at 1.86
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