CANADIAN OPEN: While a certain announcement has sent shockwaves throughout the golf world over the past 24 hours, there’s still a tournament to be played this week, and not just any tournament: Canada’s national open has a proud history that dates back to 1904, with a list of past champions that includes many of the greats of the game. The last two stagings have been won by someone who certainly fits the bill, Rory McIlroy, and the PGA Tour’s self-proclaimed “sacrificial lamb” in the recent LIV merger will look to put the off-course distractions behind him and achieve the three-peat.
The market certainly like his chances, as Rory is currently trading at a shortish 7.3 on the BETDAQ exchange, but he won’t have course familiarity working in his favor due to a new venue being put in the rotation.
Oakdale Golf and Country Club was founded nearly 100 years ago and has long been regarded as one of the best courses in the Toronto area, but this will be its first time hosting a significant professional event of this nature. A par-72 that measures 7,264 yards, it’s not particularly long by Tour standards, and putts will be pouring in on the glassy bentgrass greens. That said, the fairways are narrow, the rough is reportedly thick, and the greens are small and firm. Will it be enough to prevent a race to about 25-under? Probably not, but it’s always nice to see the veil lifted on a classic track like Oakdale. It definitely adds something to the viewing experience this week.
McIlroy is the clear favorite, but with a new course to deal with, not to mention the merger-fueled media frenzy that he’ll continue to be at the center of in the coming days, it’s tough to get behind him at the current price. The field is fairly strong despite this being the week before a major, and the European guys in particular have turned out, with names like Hatton (14.0), Fitzpatrick (16.5), Rose (23.0), Fleetwood (29.0), and Lowry (25.0) joining McIlroy atop the market. Canadians like Corey Conners (28.0) and Adam Hadwin (60.0) will be looking to win their national open, and of course weeks like this, when some of the big guns are resting, can be a tremendous opportunity for a lesser-known player to make a name for himself. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Sam Burns (18.0)- Burns has firmly established himself as one of the top players on Tour this season and he’s been rolling lately, with five top-15 finishes and a victory across his last eight starts. Like everyone else, he’ll be seeing Oakdale for the first time in competition, but he enjoyed his time north of the border last year, finishing T4 in this event. That’s not surprising– when you’re elite with both the driver and the putter in your hands, as Burns is (9th on Tour in strokes gained putting; 22nd in total driving), your game travels. I’ll take Burns at 18.0 all day over McIlroy at 7.3.
Adrian Meronk (50.0)– While Meronk only has two top-20 finishes in seven PGA Tour starts this season, he’s been tearing it up lately on the DP World Tour, finishing T5 in the KLM Open last time out and winning the Italian Open earlier in May. A tremendous iron player who ranks 3rd on the DP World Tour in GIR percentage, he should be a nice fit at a course like Oakdale, with its small greens and smaller targets. He feels a bit overpriced here, surely due to his lack of success in the States, but hey… we’re not in the States this week! Different country, new venue… a guy like Meronk could be well-positioned to sneak off with the trophy. I’m happy to take a chance on him at nearly 50/1.
Grayson Murray (380.0)- Murray is a bit of a controversial character– his past antics have resulted in the deletion of his social media, and he’s been up front about his struggles with mental health. It was reported that he was at the center of an argument in the merger-related Players Meeting this week that ended with Rory McIlroy telling him to “play better.” It’s probably a bit much to suggest that a comment like that would motivate someone to the point of high achievement, but Murray, who has struggled to keep his card over the past couple of years and now floats between the PGA and Korn Ferry tours, has rediscovered his game and is in the midst of the best stretch of golf he’s played in quite awhile, winning the KFT’s Advent Health Championship three weeks ago and finishing 3rd in last week’s Rex Hospital Open. So he carries a lot of momentum and confidence with him this week, and he’ll be on equal footing with everyone in terms of course history– nobody’s played Oakdale. We’re reaching deep for this one this week, but at a longshot price like 380.0 I believe Murray is worth a bet.
